Predicting the Movie Hits and Bombs of 2017

It probably the wrong time of year for both those drama's
Monster Trucks everybody who linked to that movie should quit the biz
what embrassment I kept thinking it felt like a bad 80's movie.

 

Heard that 2016 was the worst ticket sales in 100 years.

 

Some people are saying it's the worst ticket sales in 500 years. I don't know, that what I've heard. People are saying so, believe me.

 

Total ticket sales (not overall grosses, but actual ticket sales) were up 0.1% from 2015 to 2016 according to Box Office Mojo:

Movie Box Office Results by Year, 1980-Present - Box Office Mojo »

 

Better then a Legos remake of Bergman's 'Winter Light' or Ophuls "The Sorrow and the Pity"

 

"Lego 2 Girls 1 Cup"?

 

I saw a great new film last night!

20th Century Women (starring Annette Bening, Billy Crudup, Greta Gerwig and Elle Fanning)

A great ensemble cast and a wonderful film overall with some great music in it!

Look into it!

 

My prediction: The Emoji Movie will bomb.

 

I would be very surprised if this did well. The idea sounds pretty awful. On the other hand, I was skeptical of The Lego Movie until I saw the trailer, which was pretty funny.

 

Yeah, I thought it had "worthy but dull" written all over it.

 

Emoji will do okay. Probably make about as much as Angry Birds ($350m worldwide).

I think Fifty Shades Darker will underperform. The success of the first one was due mostly to curiosity and novelty, I believe. No way does the sequel make half a billion.

It won't be a "bomb", though, due to a relatively small budget. Supposedly it only cost $20 million, so they should turn a nice profit.

 

I totally agree with you on that one. The idea does sound very lame.

 

"50 Shades of Grey" was heavily frontloaded in the US. It made 56% of its total gross its opening weekend, so it had no staying power - it got its viewers right out of the gate and that was it.

Since the movie doesn't seem to be much loved, I imagine that'll impact the sequel. It'll still get the core of fans who went to the first one, but as you note, curiosity level will decrease...

 

It's hard to tell with movies like this. The industry buzz is that the published $20M budget figure is wrong and it's more likely twice that, but even at a cost of $40M and all being shot in Canada, it doesn't have to make a huge amount of money to break even. The last film cost $40M and made $571M, and I would bet even if this one is a disaster, it'll make $120M, which is still profitable (but disappointing). I would bet it'll do better than that, but they'd be extremely lucky to make half of what the first one did.

 

The Emoji Movie trailer is out already and it looks really bad.

 

on the possibility of Sony selling it's film/TV biz

http://nypost.com/2017/01/19/sony-is-weighing-a-sale-of-film-tv-business/

this little nugget

Hirai isn’t interested in selling Sony Music, sources said. The company is in good shape and is a big cash cow for the firm.

The film unit, however, is struggling. Sony/Columbia ended 2016 in fifth place with a market share of 8 percent, behind Disney, Warner, Fox and Universal, according to Box Office Mojo.

A source said Sony hasn’t yet committed to a sale at this time, because the firm wants to see how Sony’s movies perform this summer.

“They want to see how the “Emoji Movie” movie does because they think they have a franchise and it might help them get a better price,” said a source, the film, which features a poop emoji, comes out on August 4.

 

Ouch. That's not good at all.

 

Yeah, a crap franchise!

 

I expect this one to be one of the year's best:

 

Box Office: M. Night Shyamalan's 'Split' Is a Hit; Vin Diesel's 'xXx: Xander Cage' Not So Much »

 

I honestly don't know who thought the world wanted a new "xXx" movie. The first did pretty well but it wasn't the super-hit Sony expected, and I didn't get the impression it'd built up a following over the last 15 years.

Maybe they figured that Vin Diesel's success via the "Fast/Furious" franchise made him more "saleable"...

 

The shock on Shyamalan's Split is that he financed the film himself at a cost of $10 million, which is an incredibly low budget for a Hollywood film these days. I bet he'll "split" the money with Universal.

 

Seen xXx: Xander Cage.
6/10
A lot of Chinese in the audience no doubt for Donnie Yen. Feel like saying it was a load of rubbish, but it did have its moments however so fleeting.

 

Well, good for him. I always admire people that bet on themselves, even if they misfire.

 

I am glad to see M Night Shyamalan doing well.

First Wayward Pines, then "The Visit" was well received and profitable, and now "Split" is well-received by critics and is #1 at the box office.

I love his first 4 films, and despise everything after until this recent return to form. It is a nice story, and I hope he keeps it rolling.

He is not just a director. He comes up with the story, writes, directs, and now self-funds these projects. I enjoy his work a lot.