When will "Physical Media" Sales Stabilize?

...or will they? They've been dropping every year for a number of years (CD sales) but I'm thinking they will eventually flatten out and hold more or less steady. Surely there will always be a certain percentage of music lovers who will prefer to own physical product. At least I hope so. I mean, they're still printing books last I checked, so I guess that's a good sign.

 

They already have

 

CD sales dropped 25% in the first quarter of 2012 in the UK
http://www.billboard.biz/bbbiz/indu...les-drop-15-in-first-quarter-1006678352.story

 

Still dropping, from my perspective. The biggest issue is that the brick-and-mortar stores are fading out, so eventually, the only source for books, magazines, music, and videos may well be online vendors like Amazon. And as they turn to download-only and streaming-only releases, it's done.

The collectors' market will exist for many decades to come, so I think everything that was published or pressed over the last 50-60 years will still be readily available. But new reissues, new books, new magazines... that presents a lot of challenges.

 

It's definitely getting worse. I posted in another thread yesterday about my local Best Buy having the worst CD selection I had ever seen, and that's saying something since it's been poor for some time. Most of the bins were half-full. Part of the issue there likely is Best Buy's financial troubles. Still, if CDs were selling well, they would maintain a better inventory.

I also discovered yesterday that the FYE at a local mall had gone out of business. The last time I was there, back in December, there were no signs that the store would be closing. They had full inventory. A women's clothing store replaced it.

It doesn't help CD sales when you can't find them in the first place (in retail stores). If they sold well in the first place, stores would stock them. And 'round and 'round we go.

 

People see stores closing and declare 'the death of physical media'

I buy 99% of my purchases of music and blu-ray's online. Prices are better, and when you factor in other costs (gas, parking, lunch ) it's a far more efficient and cost effective way of shopping.

Of course for many people now the most cost effective and convenient way to buy music is to just download from iTunes.

 

Huh?

I just heard that vinyl sales are up over 10% on NPR as the 'younger' gen discovers physical media.

 

Whilst I think there's always going to be a market for physical sales, that market is become more and more niche as time goes by. The vast majority of the young people I work with (in their late teens) never buy physical media. It's just not on their radar. I can see the end of mainstream physical sales within the next decade as broadband speeds continue to increase and more of the MP3 generation feed through.

 

More than likely it's the baby boomers wanting to relive their youth before going to their final resting place.

 

1.10 times something very small is still a very small number.

Vinyl will probably never die completely, but it will remain very much a niche thing. CDs are toast - a plastic container for bits that can be put on a hard drive. In fact I would go so far as to say optical media of every kind is in dire danger of going away, eventually. Blu Ray looks fantastic and it was cracked immediately, so you can extract that stuff to HD.

Then again, we've had this same conversation a zillion times here. The CD numbers can be looked up; sales continue to go down with no reason to ever rebound (see: asymptote).

 

This is my opinion on the matter as well (mostly). Vinyl is already like this and, even with the resurgance in the last few years, it's still going to be a "specialized" format at best.

Imo CD's are headed in this directon as well - I don't think you'll see them go completely extinct (which differs from your opinion I believe?), I think they'll become a specialized product like vinyl is right now. Maybe in 20 or 30 years, but imo not in 10 years.

 

I've started buying more CDs, lately. They're cheap and plentiful on the used market. Even if they're only the vehicle for ripping them, they're a cheap way to acquire the music. With new music, the CD is ordinarily better quality than the download and cheaper than the LP.

 

There definitely is a correlation. Amazon and other web sites for buying CDs have been around a long time, and brick-and-mortar stores managed to coexist with the web sites for a number of years. It's downloading that has caused to the downfall of brick-and-mortar retailers by shrinking the physical media market to the point that only the large online retailers with minimal overhead can survive.

(I'm not considering the niche audiophile market, which is a different matter.)

 

I was in two record stores yesterday and most of the people shopping for vinyl were in their 20s and 30s. My 25 year old son-in-law bought 5 records.

 

There is no place to buy CD's in two of the three major malls in the area I'm in. The FYE closed down and a Dick's went up in it's place.

The K-Mart reduced their CD section to a 4-way in the middle of the videogames and flatscreen TVs.

It's not like there's anything decent on CD in the first place. It's all older music, or terrible new music. SACD and DVD-A are long gone in brick-and-mortar stores. Any decent new music is on the internet.

I say, let 'em crash!

 

Just anecdotal, but...The young people I see shopping for vinyl are in the used records, which wouldn't add to the demand for new records. I'd be curious to see some demographic data on who's buying new records.

 

This is true. Jerry's Records in Pittsburgh is the biggest vinyl vendor in the city. Walk in there at any given time, 90% of the people in there are in their 20s and 30s.

Vinyl sales only account for new vinyl records being sold. They don't consider the fact that most young people buy used records.

 

not much of an issue, for me, at least, as Anime (JAPANESE ANIMATION) has been among the very last modern media
that has sustained my primary interest on through most of the last decade.

today, however, is a different story. Anime, in general,
has just pretty much finished undergoing a serious Sea-Change,
that has been occurring over the last few years now,
transferring away from most/all aspects that made me enjoy it so much in the first place,
and deftly shifting on towards a series of very modern styles and tropes
that are squarely geared directly towards today's youth in general,
making most/all modern Anime something that's quite unfathomable and generally unappealing to me overall.


The Doctor's Abridged Diagnosis; YOU'RE GETTING A LITTLE UP ON THERE IN YOUR YEARS, SON...

 

Wow around me you can buy CDs at Target, Walmart, Best Buy and Record and Tape Traders. Everyone saying no where to buy Cds doesn't have a Walmart or Target near them?

 

i see no shortage at my local Target, Walmart, Best Buy and the like, either.

regardless, since everything i like is either available
on CD, LP, or, most often, both, i eschew modern pressings in any format
as much as possible, opting for original 1980's CD's whenever i have the chance.

i'll take a thrift find of an album i like, on LP, provided it is in good condition,
any day over a modern CD reissue or GREATEST HITS repackage.

in all honesty, Anime music is largely the only acoustical product of the 1990's/2000's
that i care for, and i try for original CD copies of my favorite material there whenever possible,
though it IS difficult, as Anime soundtrack CDs seem to often be limited to a single production run,
and tend to become hard to find even a couple/four years after production.

finding Anime soundtracks from the 80's, and even much of the 90's? Grail material, more often than not. Pray, and hope for the best...

 

Ya, but the funny thing, and we live pretty close to each other where I live I dont know one single person "Now and today" that even has vinyl playback capability at all.

So im guessing, outside of larger Metro areas ( im about 20 miles from the city of pittsburgh) vinyl is barely being used at all. (Unless the few that have it are very secretive about it....)

I still know of not one single person of ANY age using it. And thats after trying to ask several of my sons friends and people at work etc. I was laughted at a lot and given a lot of funny looks.

I think we in here over-estimate the vinyl revival.

 

I do have to say, I like Anime as well and have some good material I had imported. Plus I like the soundtrack CD sets from the Final Fantasy game series. There is some that I would like to find but I don't really know of any good sources to look them up. I find that type of music much more appealing to me and tends to keep my attention a lot longer. Even if i don't understand what the singer is saying language-wise, I still enjoy it anyway for the music (especially some of the Japanese theme songs on the original Yu-Gi-Oh! series).

 

The CD today reminds me of the floppy in the 90's..
..yeah, its around but I'd rather not use it

 

...and use what instead?