Predicting the Movie Hits and Bombs of 2014

OK, if Godzilla is not the biggest money-making worldwide hit of 2014, you have to buy me dinner at Pink's on LaBrea.

If Godzilla makes less than $400M -- which is what it will need to make a profit -- then I'll buy you dinner at Pink's.

 

it's a bet.

 

That works for me. Hey, interesting comment from Deadline on the new Spiderman sequel:
With so much riding on this one picture – the outlay investment is so high – Spider-Man 2 is the kind of picture that needs to do higher than the first, which made $752.2M worldwide and about 65% of its gross coming from international markets. At the $750M mark, Sony stands to make about 20% return on the movie so they will not lose money but not considered a big success. What would be considered successful is a worldwide gross in the $850M to $900M range.

This is a film that cost $255M plus $180M to advertise. At least it illustrates the problem of "how much does a movie need to make before it's considered successful," if you believe Deadline's numbers. I think they'll get to $800M, but above that, I dunno.

I gotta say, in Scott's favor, they showed clips of Godzilla yesterday at Wondercon and reportedly it went extremely well. Me personally, I'm just tired of sequels and would like to see an original story for a change, especially one that hasn't already been told 50 times. (On the other hand, I'm a Bond fan, so there you go.)

 

My predictions are only a little different. I think Edge of Tomorrow will be well-received and have good word of mouth, and will be a significant international success. Domestically, I expect around $150 million (maybe a bit less), but with at least $200 million more overseas.

But Jupiter Acending will put up Speed Racer-type numbers.

I think Jersey Boys has a shot at being a modest success as counter-programming.

Hercules and Turtles will bomb.

$300 million domestic and much more internationally for Godzilla.

 

Yes, but you have to eat ten Chili dogs at Pink's like Orson Welles would do in a sitting.

 

Bay's just a producer on "TMNT" - he didn't direct it...

 

If "Godzilla" makes $400m or more but isn't the biggest worldwide hit, do you both buy ME dinner???

 

If you ever make it to LA, I'd gladly buy you a hot dog meal at Pink's!

I didn't say he directed it -- I said "Bay has two films out this year," which is true.

I never saw Orson there in the 1970s, but I did sit two people away from Dennis Wilson one time at about 1AM in the middle of the week. Only famous person I ever saw at Pink's.

 

Just went to Wonder Con's Saturday Studio Day. I must say that there is not a lot of promise for the summer. The New Tom Cruise film did NOT test well to the comic geeks and the presentation for X-men was very weak (Partially because they had the writer come represent the film instead of Mr. Singer (For Obvious reasons). Godzilla tested very well and looks really good! They showed 10 minutes of the film up to Godzilla's reveal. Looks a lot like the classic monster! (however I don't know how it will play with the mainstream middle america crowd judging by the last Godzilla film but that was of poor quality). A couple of glimmers of hope. New film called Secret Service Starring Colin Firth, Michael Caine, and Samuel L. Jackson directed by Matthew Vaughn (Kick Ass) looks amazing and Lucy directed by Luc Bresson (The Fifth Element, The Professional, La Femme Nikita) Starring Scarlett Johansen and Morgan Freeman Is a true return to form. Lucy will be released in August and Secret Service will be released in October.

Other than than the summer looks like a snooze fest. I feel that the average Joe would rather swelter in the heat instead of paying the constantly inflating cost of a movie ticket for the air conditioning.

Side note, Jerry Bruckheimer was on one of the panels and was asked hoe does he know what project would be a hit or not and even he said (and I quote) "I've been in this business 40 years and I still don't know!"

Food for thought...

 

I strongly disagree that it will be well-received and have word-of-mouth good enough to give it any sort of legs. I'm open to being pleasantly surprised, but I don't think it will outperform Oblivion. I'm predicting that it gets very average reviews, and will do so so business, a little less than Oblivion did overall.

 

Nobody does. There's a famous quote from award-winning screenwriter William Goldman in his book Acdventures in the Screen Trade: "Nobody knows anything." It's clear Bruckheimer has no clue, judging by Lone Ranger, Prince of Persia, King Arthur, Pearl Harbor, and a few other expensive failures. But his movies and TV shows also have made billions and billions of dollars, so he's right far more than he's wrong.

 

Hi Marc, wish I lived on the left coast...I'd take that bet! been saying this was going to be a hit from the first announcement in and out of the forum...

 

No question, it's a contentious prediction. I don't dispute there are a lot of Godzilla fans out there, but jesus, it's just been done and done and done already.

On the other hand: one could ask, "do we really need another superhero movie," and people aren't sick of those yet. So... I could be wrong! And as I always say, I don't mind being wrong if the movie is good and deserves to be a hit. And Bryan Cranston is a fantastic actor.

 

A lot of good observations ( per usual).

 

Two key differences between this film and Oblivion are that it has a director (Doug Liman) and screenwriter (Christopher McQuarrie) with proven commercial track records, and a much higher-profle release date.

 

Liman hasn't had a hit since Mr. and Mrs. Smith in 2005 (not counting television), McQuarrie's two hits were Valkerie and The Usual Suspects while his last three screenplays were Jack the Giant Slayer, Jack Reacher, and The Tourist. I'm not sure where you're seeing a proven commercial track record. But I agree that it's release date is pretty favorable putting some odds in it's favor. I'll be really curious to if the movie gets to $150m domestically, and even that mark is a low one.

 

Jack Reacher was a substantial international success ($220 million on a budget of $60 million)...good movie too, played better out of the US where the books are less well known. It did OK here too, actually (about $80 million). Expectations for it were not high, given the release date -- which I believe was February.

Compare this to Oblivion which was written and directed by Joseph Kozinski, whose only other credit was Tron:Legacy (which was a mild international success, a domestic disappointment, and not a film that generated a lot of goodwill). I did like Oblivion a lot, though.
Anyway, what Edge of Tomorrow has going for it is strong pre-release buzz and a couple of very good trailers. Everyone I know who has heard of it is excited about it. It won't be a runaway hit but it will do substantial business. It may have cost too much to produce (not that budgets mean anything once you take Hollywood accounting into account).

 

Well, I suppose it depends on how you define substantial. I think Reacher made enough to appease the accounting department at the studio, which at the end of the day is all you can ask for, but not enough to really call it a hit movie. And I'm thinking Edge of Tomorrow will do the same. If the marketing is building good buzz for you and your circle, that's great b/c I worked on it some

I guess we'll find out in June!

 

I'm looking forward to the returns! Gonna be interesting.

 

I'm also a big Pink's Hot Dogs fan! Haven't been there yet this year. (Long lines.)

Another movie I suspect will tank is the upcoming Seth Rogan/Zack Efron movie Neighbors, about a college fraternity house that gets into an intense conflict with a husband & wife who life next door. It looks like a nasty, mean-spirited, unfunny film to me, plus it's coming out on May 9th (an incredibly competitive period), and I just don't see it doing well. I liked Seth Rogan's This Is the End, but there were a lot of good comic actors in that one, plus it was a deliberate, edgy, R-rated comedy. This thing doesn't make me laugh.

 

I haven't been to Pink's in a long while. I love finding it on days when the line is super short, though.

I think Neighbors will do okay. Teen girls are already excited about seeing a movie with Zach Ephron AND Dave Franco. It appeals to a younger demographic and low to mid-twenties, so I think it'll bring in people out and about and with nothing else to do after school is done.

 

I'll watch Neighbors because Rose Byrne is in it. Nicholas Stoller also directed Forgetting Sarah Marshall and Get Him To The Greek, two films I enjoyed, so I'm cautiously optimistic.

 

Have you seen the trailer? I'm telling you, Neighbors looks very mean-spirited and not too funny:



I'm wondering if Zack Efron's teenage fans can handle him being kind of a cruel d!ck to the neighbors... though I don't doubt both Efron and Seth Rogan's characters are total douches. One thing about fart-joke comedy: I think you have to be very careful about how cruel it is, because the moment it becomes mean-spirited, I think it detracts from the comedy. R-rated comedies like Animal House and Blazing Saddles straddled this line very well; there were cruel moments in the movies, but not from the lead characters. Even recent films like The Hangover and Bridesmaids handled this very well, and were funny without making the stars look bad. (Stupid and capable of bad decisions, yes; bad, no.)

 

I love Rose Byrne. Talented actress, and incredibly beautiful.

I don't doubt you that it looks mean-spirited, and being not funny is subjective. I average maybe one laugh per Christopher Guess movie, while people love them. I really hated the Scary Movie franchise and they made millions. Whether or not it'll translate to box office is up in the air. From what I've seen on Twitter, teenagers and college kids are wanting to see this. I'm not saying it's a guaranteed hit, I'm just not sure it's going to tank.

 

A couple of small religious films have quietly done really well: God's Not Dead ($48M) and Son of God ($59M)

Low budget horror seems to be a good bet this year. Oculus, The Devil's Due and the new Paranormal Activity all made several times their budget.