Predicting the Movie Hits and Bombs of 2015

Those first two movies are horrible. Columbus definitely had some missteps. I enjoyed some of Gremlins, but it's a weird, uneven film.

There were tax incentives involved from three or four different countries for Spectre. I think there's also tons of product placement, too. This is par for the course for any big movie these days. I'd say between product placement and tax incentives, they could probably shave $20M off the budget. But if they go $20M over (which outgoing Sony president Amy Pascal predicted), they're dead.

 

UK offers a 20% tax incentive. that's worth 60 million on 300,000,000 dollar film. And if they go over budget they get more not less.

 

I think there's a lot of conditions attached to that, and it depends on employment and schedule. I also think they look at the specific budget as spent in that given country. If a Bond film shoots in (say) five countries, $300,000,000 isn't counted for one country. It could be $200M in one, $20M in another, and so forth. And as I heard from a producer/friend doing work in New Mexico, the rebates aren't instantaneous -- they happen after X number of months and don't pay any interest. The whole financing deal is a very tricky balancing act.

 

Nope. It's very straight forward and the conditions are obnoxiously easy to meet. 10% expenditures on UK resources. There are no caps. The tax credit is as good as cash and in some cases even better.

 

Here's some information: http://www.britishfilmcommission.org.uk/film-production/uk-film-tax-relief/

You are correct, it's not that hard to get the tax credit.

The big change that happened in the UK was around EIS (enterprise investment schemes) and sole partnership structures that were primarily created to offer investors tax breaks more than anything else. It was quite ridiculous what people could get away with in the past with these structures. If the film made a profit the investors made more money but no one really cared as the whole point, which is not suppose to be the whole point in the view of HMRC, was to get the personal tax benefits one would receive for investing. Tax efficient structures still exist but the worst of them have been shut down by HMRC and they are far more aggressive in closing the worst ones these days.

 

First I also thought that the Minions Movie would not do very well, mainly because the second Despicable Me movie was really awful and I also don´t think it´s a good idea to release whole movies just for such comic relief characters. But then this really massive advertising campaign started. Last week there was an article in my local newspaper just about this campaign. I think this is one of the biggest promotions for a single movie the earth has ever seen so far! They spend $23,4M just for TV-Spots in the states during July; they have contracts with business partners for cross-promotions regarding an value of $593M, if you actually would have to pay for them; here in Germany Minions are everywhere: Subway-Stations are covered in Minions posters; Minions are on the labels of Bananas; there are Minions on over 700 products you can currently buy via amazon. It´s kind of frightening, I have to say...

 

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I think the addition of the Chinese market can add a couple of hundred million dollars to any global blockbuster movie. That market was not available back in the day.

When I was growing up in Hong Kong in the 70s, Bond movies were major events. My dad and I would plan weeks ahead of release to go see them (same goes for any movie with Bronson, Eastwood, Newman, and McQueen).

 

Terminator passed the $300 million mark on a global basis, but has yet to clear $100 million domestically.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=main&id=terminator2015.htm

 

Great analysis here of the surprising bombs and disappointments of summer 2015:

But even star-driven franchises are no longer sure things, as proven by the dismal box office performance of Arnold Schwarzenegger’s return in “Terminator: Genysis” and Mark Wahlberg’s “Ted 2.” Meanwhile, several other once-bankable stars have suffered misfires this summer: Adam Sandler (“Pixels”), George Clooney (“Tomorrowland”) and Meryl Streep, whose “Ricki and the Flash” barely created ripples with its $7 million opening this weekend. Even Melissa McCarthy, as safe a box-office bet as exists today, underwhelmed with “Spy.” The R-rated spy comedy stands at $109 million domestically for Fox, well under the grosses for her earlier collaborations with director Paul Feig, “Bridesmaids” ($159 million) and “The Heat” ($169 million).

http://www.thewrap.com/tom-cruise-mission-impossible-rogue-nation-scored-other-stars-flopped/

I think we could put Fantastic Four, Pixels, Ted2, and Tomorrowland on the Hell Multiplex marquee.

 

Probably not a mega hit, but the budget couldn't have been that high for a comedy, right? I'm sure they at least broke even and maybe made a small profit on that one.

 

And I saw none of them.

 

You know, Tomorrowland was a noble effort and a well-made film. But god, did it suck. Beautiful-looking movie. Pixels I have zero interest in, and Terminator and Ted 2 I'd watch on home video. But Fantastic Four looked bad from the git-go.

Yes, Spy cost $65M but made over $230M, so that's a profitable movie. I think they just expected a lot more out of it. Ted 2 also made money (cost $68M and made $166M), but the first Ted made $550M (!!!), so this is also seen as a big disappointment. Clearly, there are no sure things in filmmaking.

 

well, I finally watched Blackhat. Ravishing visuals, excellent acting. Hemsworth can play someone other than Thor. But like the last few Mann films, I was vaguely disappointed. The story telling is fine, but the story itself seemed a bit askew. For instance, the nuclear power plan sabotage at the beginning is clearly more threatening than.... what turns out to be the excuse for it. I keep hoping for another "Heat" from Mann, although IIRC the ending to that was the weakest part too.

Note to studio marketing: "Blackhat" is a stupid title.

 

I noticed the huge minions cross promotion too...must have cost huge money.

 

Despicable Me: grossed $543 million.
Despicable Me 2: grossed $970 million.
Minions: just passed $900 million.

Do the math. Plus each movie cost far, far less than current Disney / Pixar / Dreamworks productions, well under $80M (vs. $150M+ for the other studios).

 

The article said it wasn´t really that much because it was mainly a win-win situation for both partners: The one wanted to use the Minions on their products and the other wanted to get as much attention as possible for the new movie. So they mostly did not have to pay real money to get the minions on most ost the cross promotion items...

 

Terrific piece on THE WRAP.com on the hits and bombs of the summer. Some of the highlights:

Worst Timing
Films that were remakes or new takes on decades-old film and TV hits failed to connect, including “Poltergeist,” “Vacation” and “The Man From U.N.C.L.E.”

Hollow Follows
The summer was littered with sequels that failed to match the grosses of previous films, including “Ted 2,” “Magic Mike XXL” and “Insidious 3.” Reboots “Terminator: Genisys” and “The Fantastic Four” failed to deliver as well.

The Top Flop
Fox’s “Fantastic Four,” the $120 million reboot of the old-school Marvel series, may unravel an entire franchise despite the presence of some of Hollywood’s hottest young stars. In close second: Disney’s “Tomorrowland,” an original $190 million sci-fi saga directed by Brad Bird and starring George Clooney. Dishonorable Mention: “Entourage,” “Man from U.N.C.L.E.”

Stars That Dimmed
Reese Witherspoon and Sofia Vergara (“Hot Pursuit”), Arnold Schwarzenegger (“Terminator: Genisys”), George Clooney (“Tomorrowland”) and Adam Sandler (“Pixels”) though the Governator’s stock may have risen, as the sci-fi saga has performed better abroad.

Misdirected
Heavyweight helmers Woody Allen (“Irrational Man”), Cameron Crowe (“Aloha”), Chris Columbus (“Pixels”) and Brad Bird (“Tomorrowland”) all churned out stinkers.

and there's a lot more, both good and bad...

http://www.thewrap.com/22-summer-hi...ys-reboot-and-seasons-most-embarrassing-flop/

BTW, note that Terminator:Genisys just unexpectedly made huge money in China, so it's apparently going to be profitable after all.

 

Oddly enough, not I single one I would ever want to see.

 

I don't see Clooney's reputation or career being harmed in any meaningful way by "Tomorrowland." I think at this point it's mostly been forgotten by the public. It wasn't a "John Carter"-level flop that is now studied in business school.

 

Truth, although part of me wants to see what they did with the Poltergeist remake for curiosity sake. Most movies these days fall into the category of "something to do when there's nothing else to do - or at least get out of the heat" rather than a real must-see event.

 

Riki and Flash is so pointless anyways Streep, might have to call it a day.
I knew Pixels, was going to be doomed from the beginning.
And Fantastic Four, Fox could stopped this before it made into production but,..
No...
Maybe? Minions, is new product to brainwash children with?
All the stuff I seen from that movie.
It's everywhere ...

 

Seriously? "Call it a day" because she makes one movie that gets mediocre box office?

The woman has 6 Oscar nominations over the last 10 years - yeah, I guess she's toast!

 

At the start of this year, if I was told that Straight Outta Compton would be a successful movie, I would not have believed it.
Unless The Amazing Kreskin said it.

 

Yeah, I thought Blackhat was a powerful cinematic experience, with (as you note, and as I've noted elsewhere) an astonishingly stupid climax, where Thor stands in the desert declaiming, "Those bastards! It was tin all along! TIIIIIINNNNN!!!"