Predicting the Movie Hits and Bombs of 2016

Discussion in 'Visual Arts' started by Vidiot, Dec 18, 2015.

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  1. sunspot42

    sunspot42 Forum Resident

    Location:
    San Francisco
    This very much depended on the film (or TV series). Generally, action/sci-fi films that did well in the theaters made a ton more in home video (sales and rentals), way beyond "icing". Their resulting mega-success paved over a lot of box office flops or underperformers for the studios. Flops typically didn't do a lot of video business, but it helped blunt the losses at least a little. And for films that did OK, video definitely took flicks from "break even" to "made lots of money".

    There were also films (and TV series) that weren't a big deal in the theaters but became huge on home video. Again, way beyond icing - in some instances home video was the cake.

    Losing that revenue stream is going to have major impacts in what projects Hollywood greenlights and how much they spend on them going forward.
     
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  2. Deesky

    Deesky Forum Resident

    But how much is 'a ton'? Yes, there is a correlation between successful tentpole movies and the size of the home video take, but as a percentage of profits, the theater take would be way, way more important.

    I would agree that middle of the road, smaller scale films that were only mildly successful at the box office, can benefit significantly from roaring home video success.
     
  3. Bryan

    Bryan Starman Jr.

    Location:
    Berkeley, CA
    My wife has been dying to see this, so we're there too.
     
  4. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Senior Member

    Location:
    Canada
    The top selling DVD for 2015 in the USA was Inside Out - generating $45.746 million in revenue + another $51.324 million in Blu-Ray for a total of $97.07 million for 2015 alone. The domestic box office take was $356.5 million. Blu-DVD sales are not insignificant in this case they generated over 25% of the box number.

    2015 - DVD/BLU combined Top 100 by units sold - Jurassic leads the way at 5.84 million units.

    http://www.the-numbers.com/home-market/packaged-media-sales/2015
     
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  5. Mirrorblade.1

    Mirrorblade.1 Forum Resident

    Mothers day by Garry Marshall, bombed bad only made 8 million plus over weekend
    With all stars in it I surprised it bombed , then again it's
    same formula as most of those movies have over the years..
    Gary may need to call it a day...
     
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  6. DreadPikathulhu

    DreadPikathulhu Senior Member

    Location:
    Seattle
    Keanu was good, though it didn't feature near enough "Keanu". The cat disappears for most of the film.
     
  7. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits, Abbie & Mitzi: Best Dogs Ever

    Location:
    Alexandria VA
    I thought it was wholly, completely, totally... okay. Smattering of laughs but not as funny as I'd hoped - solid "C+" movie...
     
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  8. Mirrorblade.1

    Mirrorblade.1 Forum Resident

    Richard Roeper called Mothers Day A crapfest , ouch!
    laughing all Gary's pervious movies seemed to tank lately..
    I guess he can't see the writing on the wall..
     
  9. Drifter

    Drifter AAD survivor

    Location:
    Vancouver, BC, CA
    It was okay.
     
  10. Squealy

    Squealy Forum Hall Of Fame

    Location:
    Vancouver
    I suspect Key & Peele would tell you "Ever try acting with a cat?"
     
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  11. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    And on the ongoing saga of Batman vs. Superman, the industry pundits are saying the film is officially "disappointing" since it's only made $863 million and fell well short of $1 billion:

    'Batman v Superman' Won't Be Joining $1 Billion Box Office Club »

    There's evidence that Warner Bros. had outside hopes that it would get close to the $1.5 billion that the last Avengers movie made, which clearly it didn't. The article also notes that the movie cost a reported $250M plus another $150M for promotion & distribution, so based on netting less than 50% of the gross, they only hit break even at $800M. Making $63M on a blockbuster this size is a profit, but it's a relatively small one.
     
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  12. sparkydog

    sparkydog Forum Resident

    Location:
    Kentucky
    I suspect there were several "Keanus" in this film. I'm a sucker for kittens.
     
  13. The Panda

    The Panda Forum Mutant

    Location:
    Marple, PA, USA
    The local guy here hated it and actually said he felt sorry for Aniston (WTF!) because the lines she had to say were so ridiculous.
     
  14. Maggie

    Maggie like a walking, talking art show

    Location:
    Toronto, Canada
    Anyone want to do over/unders on Civil War this weekend? $175 million, maybe?

    Avengers 2 brought in $191 million this weekend last year (compared to Cap 2's $259 million total) but Civil War has been getting better reviews.
     
  15. PH416156

    PH416156 Alea Iacta Est

    Location:
    Europe
    Captain America - Civil War: $260M in about seven days, overseas. Wow...:eek:
     
  16. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits, Abbie & Mitzi: Best Dogs Ever

    Location:
    Alexandria VA
    I'm willing to bet the cat was CG a fair amount of the time - there were some shots that would've been virtually impossible to achieve with a real-life feline...
     
  17. This is where we're at these days, huh? A disappointment if it doesn't break 1 billion. Oy. :sigh:
    Also since the film is "officially" disappointing can the studio "officially" force Zack Synder to retire? Please?
     
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  18. I've read nothing but horrid reviews for X-men: Apocalypse. And I'm glad. It's become so tiresome. I'm desperately awaiting a new phase/genre of films to get some play. I hope Justice League and Suicide Squad bomb too.

    On the other hand at least it's not another two-tone Orange & Teal movie like the new Batman and Cpt. America movies. All that money, all those resources...same old look. Yeesh.
     
  19. shokhead

    shokhead Head shok and you still don't what it is. HA!

    Location:
    SoCal, Long Beach
    :cry:
     
  20. Squealy

    Squealy Forum Hall Of Fame

    Location:
    Vancouver
    With Captain America busting blocks on the next screen over it's still going to be a while, I'm afraid.
     
  21. I suppose. But if Fox and DC go down that leaves Marvel alone.
     
  22. PhilBorder

    PhilBorder Senior Member

    Location:
    Sheboygan, WI
    This doesn't bode well for bode well for the upcoming spinoffs and Justice League. They really have to take a different approach and there's no evidence they understand what makes Superman work as a character, much less within a broader narrative. How do these people get to be studio executives? Is basic incompetency the main criteria?
     
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  23. shokhead

    shokhead Head shok and you still don't what it is. HA!

    Location:
    SoCal, Long Beach
  24. These days movies that the public almost unanimously hate or are disappointed with still makebucket loads of cash. I never thought I'd see the day where I trusted critics more than the average film goer, but that time has come.

    Everyone will complain about the new Ghostbusters, but I bet it still makes a ton of cash. Nonsensical.

    Also: I feel like I can judge a lot from the trailer of the new X-men. Some of it is so obvious: Magneto breaks a big thing again, Professor X gets kidnapped again, Jennifer Lawrence's delivery is uber bored. Singer still cannot direct females to save his life. Quicksilver will do another crowd pleasing joke scene. No real sense of drama because a. time travel and b. sequels.

    Those are my guesses. But you're right, we'll see if audiences like it. (I won't go but I'll read the thread.)
     
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