Predicting the Movie Hits and Bombs of 2017

Discussion in 'Visual Arts' started by Vidiot, Dec 3, 2016.

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  1. NickCarraway

    NickCarraway Forum Resident

    Location:
    Gastonia, NC
    Almost all the year's successful films were part of an established franchise.
     
  2. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits, Abbie & Mitzi: Best Dogs Ever

    Location:
    Alexandria VA
    I thought it'd be interesting to look over US year-end box office charts to see the last time at least 6 of the top 10 movies weren't part of an established franchise, but I'm not sure how to define "established franchise".

    Should that only encompass actual sequels or series like the Marvel Universe or Star Wars, or would movies based on existing properties count?

    It'd be interesting to see if there's been a year where at least 6 of 10 come from projects explicitly created for movies...
     
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  3. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits, Abbie & Mitzi: Best Dogs Ever

    Location:
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    Answering my own challenge, 2000 looks like the last time at least 6 of the top 10 movies existed solely as cinematic properties:

    "Cast Away"
    "Gladiator"
    "What Women Want"
    "Meet the Parents"
    "Scary Movie"
    "What Lies Beneath"

    The other four:

    "Grinch" - movie based on TV special based on book
    "Perfect Storm" - movie based on book based on real events
    "Mission: Impossible 2" - sequel to movie based on TV show
    "X-Men" - movie based on comic book
     
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  4. Jim B.

    Jim B. Senior Member

    Location:
    UK
    Logically the number of Star Wars fans just continues to grow, as they haven't started to die off yet. So every year new kids discover SW in numbers and the fan base grows. It's like the Clash (band) - there are far more Clash fans today than there has ever been.

    So just based on numbers it is bound to beat TFA. The key factor is repeat viewings and by all accounts, as they have given the director a new trilogy, Disney are very happy with the film which means it must be pretty good so people will be seeing it again and again.
     
  5. Standoffish

    Standoffish Smarter than a turkey

    Location:
    North Carolina
    Not wanting you to have all the fun, Oatsdad, I did some tallying, too :). Top 10 movies for the last ten years:

    -Sequels: 55
    -Original screenplays: 20
    -Original script based on novel/comic: 19
    -Remakes: 6

    Notes:
    -based on U.S. domestic gross.
    -In 2011, the top 9 were sequels, and #10 was Thor. Wow.
    -of the 20 original scripts, 13 were animated films.
     
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  6. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits, Abbie & Mitzi: Best Dogs Ever

    Location:
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    NERD!!!! ;) :D
     
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  7. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits, Abbie & Mitzi: Best Dogs Ever

    Location:
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    By that notion, "Attack of the Clones" should've made more money than "Phantom Menace" and "Sith" should've then done better than both.

    And "Rogue 1" should've beaten "TFA".

    As was the case with the Prequel Trilogy, I suspect the Sequel Trilogy will peak gross-wise with its first film. I think "Jedi" won't lose as many viewers as "Clones" did because people largely liked "TFA" and disliked "Menace", but I'll be shocked if "Jedi" approaches/beats "TFA".

    Like I said earlier, "Menace" and "TFA" benefited from pent-up demand. That's not the case any more - and it's even less true now that we get a new "Star Wars" every year.

    At least "Clones" had a three-year gap between movies - "Jedi" only gets 2 since its narrative predecessor and 1 since any "Star Wars" product...
     
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  8. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits, Abbie & Mitzi: Best Dogs Ever

    Location:
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    BTW, the movie series that's all over the place in terms of receipts is the Harry Potter franchise.

    Its highest-grossing flick was #8, though its take was insanely front-loaded - it made almost 45% of its total in its opening weekend! :eek:

    For comparison, "TFA" brought in 26% of its total during opening weekend.

    Until 2011, the first Potter was the biggest hit.

    After that it goes:

    6
    7
    4
    5
    2
    3

    Kind of a non-pattern there!
     
  9. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits, Abbie & Mitzi: Best Dogs Ever

    Location:
    Alexandria VA
    Off the top of my head, I can think of only 2 trilogies where 3 > 2 > 1:

    "Austin Powers" and "LOTR".

    Usually there's some decline. It might not be 3 < 2 < 1 - could be 3 > 2 < 1 - but it's typical that 1 > 2 > 3...
     
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  10. Jim B.

    Jim B. Senior Member

    Location:
    UK

    3 was by a long way the best. Go figure.
     
  11. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits, Abbie & Mitzi: Best Dogs Ever

    Location:
    Alexandria VA
    "Azkaban" was also the 1st Potter to come out in the summer - dunno if that was a factor.

    To be fair, the Potter films were really pretty consistent in terms of grosses. "Azkaban" is the worst-grosser of the bunch but it still made 79% of what "Sorcerer's Stone" earned, which isn't too bad.

    The Potter series had 5 films that did between $290m and $317m. The two others were at $261m ("Chamber") and $249m ("Azkaban")...
     
  12. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    Always glad to report a success story a change: the trades are reporting that the new Disney/Pixar film Coco is going to make even more money than they expected this weekend. "Overperform" is not a word you hear often these days...

    “Coco” is performing significantly above pre-release forecasts, which had been in the $55 million to $60 million range. It received an A+ CinemaScore from moviegoers, indicating that the film could be lifted by strong word of mouth during the rest of the holidays.

    ‘Coco’ Edges ‘Justice League’ at Thanksgiving Day Box Office

    The reviews on the film are also stellar, and I'm glad to see Pixar recover from the stumble with Good Dinosaur awhile back.
     
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  13. ianuaditis

    ianuaditis Matthew 21:17

    Location:
    Long River Place
    Of course, Scary Movie and Meet the Parents spawned a bunch of sequels.
    My kids watch way too much TV, and this movie has been all over kids TV.

    It may be only on disney, they do a great job of pimping their own stuff but I swear I've seen commercials for it on other networks they watch (Nickelodeon, whatever horrible thing Sprout has become etc.) So there seems to be a lot of that kind of advertising.
     
  14. Jrr

    Jrr Forum Resident

    That's a tough one. A lot of folks simply didn't like those three, so I think it's hard to say, though I never understood the hate for them. I've enjoyed every single film including the last one and Rogue One. Not sure about Solo. Doesn't resonate with me but I'll give it a chance.
     
  15. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits, Abbie & Mitzi: Best Dogs Ever

    Location:
    Alexandria VA
    Of course - but they were original in 2000! :)

    Though one could debate how "original" "Scary Movie" really was since it spoofed "Scream" and other horror films.

    Still, it wasn't formally based on any pre-existing property, so it counts as an "original movie"...
     
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  16. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits, Abbie & Mitzi: Best Dogs Ever

    Location:
    Alexandria VA
    It's clear the relative failure of "Clones" was a reaction to the disappointment that greeted "Menace". 8 films into the franchise and "Clones" is still the only "Star Wars" movie that didn't win its year's box office - crap, it was "only" 3rd!

    If "Menace" had been better received, I think "Clones" would've made an extra $100 million US, but the first prequel left a bad taste in many mouths.

    It'll be interesting to see how the Solo solo movie does. I'm sure it'll do fine, but it's also a threat to suffer from "Star Wars Exhaustion" - 4 movies in 4 years seems like a lot, especially when "Solo" requires a beloved character to be recast.

    Then again, they cranked out Bond movies at a fast pace and recast that character but did well, so who knows?
     
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  17. Jrr

    Jrr Forum Resident

    I think Disney needs to remember, anything can be done too much and people will lose interest. Funny you mentioned Bond...that's what happened for me. I totally stopped going to those around ten years ago and I was a huge fan! And, there are only so many creative types to write good scripts, etc. I really hope they can keep up the high quality that has resonated with me so far with all the Disney Star Wars franchise films. I know many have disagreed, and maybe it's demographic centric, but I thought they hit the exact right tone with TFA.
     
  18. Mirrorblade.1

    Mirrorblade.1 Forum Resident

    Everything runs it's course no matter how bad a movie franchise gets..
    Money over creativity wins out most of the time..
     
  19. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    Both Disney CEO Bob Iger and Lucasfilm President Kathy Kennedy are in their mid-to-late 60s and close to retirement age. If they can keep this balloon aloft for another 5 years, that's all they need. When the bubble bursts -- as it eventually will -- most likely they'll be long gone and living the good life in retirement.

    On the other hand, Kevin Feige at Marvel is only 44, and I think he's going to try his best to keep going another 10-15 years. But how often can you dip into the well and tell these comic book stories... especially at $100M-$150M a crack?
     
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  20. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    Doh, and now the UK Independent is predicting that WB will lose up to $100 million on Justice League, which is not good:

    Tracking for a $110 to $120 million opening weekend, Justice League took $96 million at the US box office, making just over $280 million worldwide. Unfortunately, despite still being a huge number, the studio is reportedly on track to lose $50 to $100 million once the movie has played out of cinemas.

    Justice League could cost Warner Bros. a staggering amount of money

    There is also a move afoot for desperate fans to encourage others to buy 6 tickets to artificially make the movie a success.
     
  21. sunspot42

    sunspot42 Forum Resident

    Location:
    San Francisco
    Good luck with that.

    The studios are producing too many of these idiotic comic book films, and most of them are mediocre at best and boring copies of each other at worst. I would have thought it was obvious this formula was going to wear thin eventually.
     
  22. Standoffish

    Standoffish Smarter than a turkey

    Location:
    North Carolina
    The studios couldn't care less if the movies are mediocre, as long as they make money. In the last 4 years, comic book flicks have grossed $15.2billion versus budgets of $3.4billion. As long as they're making 4 1/2 times their budget? The studios will keep cranking them out.
     
  23. Jim B.

    Jim B. Senior Member

    Location:
    UK
    Superman and Batman have been hugely popular for, what, 75 years? The Marvel stuff since the 60's. These are popular and enduring characters. Why should the films ever go away?

    The reality is we have now reached a time where these films can be done 'right' and look as good as the comics themselves. They are just action/adventure films and they have been making those types of films since the dawn of cinema.

    I don't see this as a 'bubble' that will burst. I think it's more accurate to see it as a new genre like Horror (and Horror films are still going strong). At first it was just the comic book fans who saw these films but now that has expanded to educate non-comic book fans in how good these can be.

    They are here to stay imo.
     
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  24. If the public gets bored with them and they lose money they will go away (not necessarily permanently). I few failures is not enough to pack it up just yet. The Justice League loses money while Thor makes some back.
     
  25. sunspot42

    sunspot42 Forum Resident

    Location:
    San Francisco
    Well, that's the problem isn't it - it looks very much like diminishing returns given the less than spectacular performance of some of these recent, overcooked comic book movies. Especially for Warner Brothers.
     
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