Future of the CD format

Man I thought I was strange still buying and collecting CD's until I got on this forum. I never got into the mp3 thing and don't even own an mp3 player but the mainstream has sure turned away from CD's and sound quality in general. What are everyone's thoughts on the future of the CD format. Are we in the middle of a slow death of CD's or will they be around for the next 20-30 years or so. The hi rez stuff sure hasn't taken hold.

 

Well, we are obviously seeing the slow death of cd brick and mortar stores, with a few exceptions here and there. I've watched store after store close down over the past 5 or 6 years.

What I wonder is, will sites like Amazon keep the physical cd alive long after most of the stores are gone?

 

They will still be around in the used market for a while after they have gone from the brick and mortar stores.

 

Hey Cuz!

 

Yeah, I suspect that since used record stores never completely went away, combo used cd/record stores won't either. It's still nice to have a few stores where you can trade in old cds, even though trade-in values are pretty pathetic these days!

 

I think 2 more years would be pushing it for CD. They're dead.

I work at a cd store on Saturdays and haven't seen anyone under 30 buy a cd in at least 2 years. It's mostly people my age (38) and older. Plenty of kids buy Jimi Hendrix, AC/DC, and Doors vinyl and the occassional poster, but no CD's.

I have to say that I feel pretty stupid walking into Target on new release day and buying a new cd. I feel like the only person on earth, and a very old one at that. Frankly, I'll be relieved when they stop making them. Most of them sound like crap and they take up too much space. The collector/packaging whore in me still falls prey from time to time. But I really hate wasting my money on them. Once they're played once or ripped, they sit collecting dust on the shelf. I hate them and won't miss them.

I still buy a lot of records though.

 

Slow death. Actually, that death is speeding up. I give it 5-7 years, tops, except for very limited-release products.

There's a very good explanation as to why in this book:

Appetite for Self-Destruction: The Spectacular Crash of the Record Industry in the Digital Age
by Steve Knopper
published by Soft Skull Press [ISBN #1593762690]

available from Amazon and other fine book dealers. The author believes the problems started with disco (!) in 1974, accelerated when record prices went up, then went further south when the labels used CDs as an excuse to almost double retail album prices, and on and on. I think he makes some very valid points.

I don't think CD will disappear completely in the forseeable future, but I could see the released dropping by 80%. And I think that will eventually account for all packaged media. The moment Wal-mart and Best Buy drop CDs, then it's really done in terms of mass-market retail.

 

Sounds like you're holding something back. Tell us how you really feel.

 

I think cd will be around as a niche market the way vinyl has hung around as a niche market for 20 years are so.There is always a certain amount of people who want a physical product.They won't be sold in stores though-mostly online only.

 

As long as they still make CD players, I'm good. I have nearly one thousand CDs (said in Dr. Evil voice), and I'll always need a machine that plays them. And I do hope they still keep making CDs, and confounding expectations.

If this is a eulogy for the CD age, I must say I've done very well by it; I've never had more hi-fi listening pleasure than I have in the last quarter-century.

 

And even those brick and mortar stores that still sell CDs have dramatically cut back on inventory and selection. Borders barely carries music, Fry's Electronics is a shell of itself for CDs, Best Buy is strictly Top 40 with virtually no back catalog. Your only choices to go deep in selection are some local specialty stores and online. The CD is not dead but it is in critical condition. Sales figures continue to drop in double digit numbers. The digital download market is not mature and has a ways to go but eventually, and not too far distance future, the download will be the primary music source for purchase.

 

Because records are cool, right? Well, the cd is about as "dead" as lps were in 1986/89, when selection of new lps was dwindling and the only people who bought them were over 30, people were virtually giving their lp collections away, and the sense was that the format only had a few years left. And, most lps in the late 80s didn't too good either.

But we know how that story ended. Lps hung on for 15 years as a niche format and, the biggest surprise, hardware actually got better and more plentiful.

Cds are in a better position in the market now than lps were in the late 80s. There are billions of them out there, and hundreds of millions of cd players, unlike lps they are 100% compatible with computer/file based systems. In recent years, affordable cd players have really gotten better sounding then they ever were in the early 90s.

My prediction is that cds will survive as a niche format, and certainly used cds will hang on for the forseeable future, 5 or maybe 10 years. The biggest problem cd owners will face is when they stop being compatible with computers and if/when cd/dvd/bluray players become obsolete. If I were to guess, I would say cds have between 15 and 20 years before fans and collectors will have to archive their collections on a harddrive to preserve it.

 

I think CD will hang on with hard-core collectors, as represented on this forum, and with the older generation who are too confused to program their alarm clock, much less operate an iPod. From what I've read, the recent Susan Boyle album sold a ton of physical CDs to that older crowd who will never make the leap to downloads. But at the rate the CD shelf space is shrinking at my local Wal-Mart, I give it another year or two before CDs there are either gone altogether or reduced to the ten most popular albums of the moment - Beyoncé, Tayor Swift, Nickelback, etc. And that's the only outlet in my town that still carries new CDs. Once Wal-Mart pulls the plug, it will be game over for the CD in small towns across America.

 

That sounds reasonable to me.

 

Of course the big question is if the CD is dying and does die, what will music "product" be in the future? How can there be a music industry without making money from the sale of intellectual property?

I'm stuck in the old ways and if we become oriented to buying downloads of single songs, I'll just keep playing CDs and records, thank you.

 

Indeed, now is a good time to buy used cds. They are not highly valued these days and you can usually do better with a used cd than buying off itunes. While others are out there chasing overpriced vinyl, I am buying used cds. I bought my share of lps back in the 80s and 90s when nobody wanted them, but now they are perceived as valuable, while cds are not.

This won't last forever. The price of some cds will rise when they are no longer widely available, but that will take some time.

RE: the players. That may eventually become a problem, though we are likely talking several decades from now, at which point music servers/hard drives will likely be so reliable and so cheap that you will be able to rip your entire collection lossless. That technology exists today, so imagine a couple of decades from now how easy it will be to store an entire collection in the event your cd player dies.

 

It's dead. It pains me to say it. I'm almost finished reading "Appetite For Self- Destruction" by Steve Knopper.

Visit a used cd store. Try and sell some used cds. Gone. Dust. Two or six bucks for classic albums on cd. Maybe a buck or two to sell one. It's a "niche" market now, only slightly above the vinyl market. Time moves on, and compact discs are not a factor in the future of music, at least for the masses. They could care less.
Rare stuff will be valuable for a while, but even those have fallen hard. Check the classified forums here - MFSL and DCC cds going for barely more than they sold for originally. Very sad. Can you say "bump"?

 

I have to say I was thrilled by the technology of CD when it was introduced and I never had a problem moving from LPs to CDs. I would also say I am equally thrilled with the prospects of digital media, downloads etc. and look forward to this next phase of my love affair in listening to music.

 

The opportunity to trade in CDs is a quickly diminishing return as I am being offered under $2 for classic rock titles probably half of what was offered only a year ago.

 

I suspect the industry wanted to kill them the moment they realized we could make them ourselves on home computers. This inability to do so thus far, is just their failure in action.

 

This sounds absolutely right. I have a hard time getting too panicked about the end of CD when so may great-sounding, affordable players (Cambridge, NAD, Rega etc.) are still hitting the market.

 

Right, because there are a ton of classic rock cds out there. There are even more cds of 80s and 90s pop and rock music practically given away. Now is the time to buy, not sell.

Rarer stuff is hanging on. While I find the occasional jazz cd at a bargain price, they usually go for the same $7 or $8 used that they have always been (not always, for a time used jazz cds went for $9 but those days are over) Jazz cds are not quite as common as classic rock, so it still has a collectibility factor missing from, say a Nirvana or U2 cd. My concern is that a lot of the great jazz back catalogs that were reissued from the 80s to the 00s will quietly get deleted and fade into obscurity. Not iconic records like Kind of Blue, but just about everything else.

 

That's what I'm saying. Unless you have something really rare or unique to sell, you'll be lucky to get more than a few bucks for each of the cds you've amassed all these years. Fact. Sad, but true.

Hey, anyone want to buy a Rolling Stones " Some Girls" Virgin cd issue, mint for $5?

heh....

and there you have it.

 

plenty of turntables are still being made.wouldn't you think that at least a
few cd transports would continue being made to play the millions of legacy
cds-if only to allow them to be archived to digital files ? certainly there
should be used cds out there for years, & i will keep buying those to go
with the many i already have.

 

So hold onto them for a few more years. This is exactly where lps were 20 years ago. Nobody wanted them and prices were falling, except for super rare stuff. I still remember taking some of my lp collection to a place to sell and they wouldn't even take 3/4 of it. They did me a favor.