"CD-format to be abandoned by major labels by the end of 2012..."

Very conflicting info in that email. First, it says:

But then later is says:

which to me says that it doesn't apply to the Byrds set.

And neither of the websites are up right now, so I can't even go look it up. Unimpressed.

 

I just received this generic mail yesterday with no return address on the envelope, wierd I thought, but I opened it.

Dear everybody,

I just want you to know that all 2 channel stereo music, 2 channel stereo equipment, tubes, vinyl music, turntables, and now newly added CD's, will no longer be made after 12/31/2012. Most of these products are all ready dead and not available anyhow.! If the world really ends on 12/21/2012, well then the 12/31 date is out.

WE are NOT kidding this time !!! Really, we mean it !

All this will finally take us to the euphoria that all the experts predicted in various forms, since about 1990, bringing us to this. All music will only be recorded or remastered in surround sound, downloadable in some sort of MP3, playable only on some convienient little device hooked to some little powered speaker box.

Don't worry, Be happy !

 

Reading this email several times very carefully, it seems that this will only effect certain Sierra Records titles.

 

Uhhh...what else are they gonna sell? They are a music store.

 

The point I was trying to make is that CDs still sell. Not the way they sold 1999, but they still sell.

 

I think that, if a consumer wants CD-quality sound, they had better start buying up all those titles they previously passed on. They may go away forever. I'm going to start because I don't want to be stuck with the only option of a damn mp3 or AAC file from iTunes.

 

Don't panic. Sony will not end physical media releases in 2014.

Rather than being stuck with MP3 downloads, it's more likely that you be able to get hi-rez downloads, while CD buyers are stuck with 16/44.

 

Why on earth would any company cease production of anything that still sells really well? I blame outdated Capitalist ideology which is leading to our economic ruination because if in one year a company makes a profit of 100 million dollars and the following year they make 75 million then that apparently, is a disaster and a sure indication that the good times are over and our future is bleak! What's wrong with the idea that 75 million above break even is a successful result?

So using the above analogy re CD sales, if in one year CD sales decline by a quarter, why should that be seen as a sure sign that this decline is proof that the format is dying a rapid death and will soon completely disappear into oblivion? Why not view this as nothing more than a reflection of changed market conditions?

I just cannot believe that if CD's were to be manufactured for the next 50 years, that in every one of those years, a healthy profit could not be made!

 

I guess this thread is going to be around for awhile.

I wouldn't panic. Even if that EO 2014 is true, it's 2 1/2 years away and I'm sure there will be an official notice out well in advance. I personally find this hard to believe given that there's not even a replacement for the PS3 yet, and that IS primarily optical disc driven.

Of course between now and then they could release the PS4 with USB thumb drives used for games, who knows. But we'll have some notice I'm sure. But any way you slice it, redbook CD's are going to phased out into a niche product eventually, it's just a matter of time.

 

I'm sure you don't remember, but 3 years ago I posted that I thought Best Buy would be done selling CD's in 5 years...and you emphatically stated the opposite

 

Hasn't happened yet. Granted, there's still 2 years left, a lot could happen. They couild stop selling everything.

 

'They' have to be making sustainable revenue before ramping down current revenue business.

If I were Chad, and had his millions, I'd be putting in plans for a clean-room extension to the record pressing plant and adding a self-contained gold CD production chain. There should be a few used ones coming up in the next year. He's done well serving the niche.

 

they could indeed....Circuit City blew up

 

Well without knowing how much Spin Records in Carlsbad makes in total for a year this doesn't mean a heck of a lot. No offense, maybe Spin records is known as a hub for music buying activity but total sales and what percent of CDs would be better evidence. 70% of sales being CDs could also mean nobody in the area likes vinyl and that the store is about to go under. Again, not busting your chops just pointing out something I noticed.

Best thing to do is expect CD production to stop soon (next year or two). Because it looks headed that way. Proceed from that assumption, buy all the CDs you can, transfer the collection to MP3s, set up sound rigs that play vinyl, support hi-res download sites so they'll be there when the CD train stops, whatever you need to do to ensure that the music won't end, be less enjoyable or be interrupted when the CD flow stops. And if we are wrong and CDs continue to thrive count it as a pleasant surprise.

I tell my friend who loves CDs, buy as many as you can responsibly. Get them now. Do not sell them unless you really don't like them. They may not be as easy to get later on. So far he is doing just that (but I think he would without my prompting but it can't hurt to tell him).

I on the other hand am not too concerned. Cloud storage and subscription sites do concern me though. If they are an option I'm good with it (options are good). If they are the new way we have to use to enjoy music (CD players become rarer, MP3 players have tiny hard drives etc.) I would not be happy. I want to own my music. Several of the bands I like would never be on those sites.

I think the topic is important to discuss. I do wish we could start a new thread on this. The article this is based on is "journalism" at it's worst. It has no value and should not be a discussion starter. But so it is ...

 

You're assuming the Mayans were incorrect in their prediction

 

Do you mind clarifying why you think the article has no value? Is it the unnamed sources?

Seems to me it was presented quite reasonably. They clearly indicated that they had no official confirmation of the major firms ceasing CD production but were continuing to seek same. And as far as the actual position is concerned (major labels will cease producing "traditional" CDs, instead concentrating on "special editions" and downloads), the article seems factually consistent with what we've seen over the years anyway.

 

Do you have any proof? You sound so certain.

 

Some branches are still have considerably large CD departments, like the ones in Tucson, AZ. It depends on the store and it's location.

You know what i'd like to see? Albums being sold on USB sticks. We have already had that before. The first retail test I know of was Michael Jackson's "Thriller", but it wasn't placed with the CDs. It was with the other USB sticks. We have seen hi-rez versions from The Beatles and Queen. I'd buy a USB stick over a CD.

 

Another reason I see for the decline in cd sales is simply a lack of places to buy them. I am lucky to live in a large city where we have a few decent music stores, but in my home town (which has about 80,000 people now), there are no longer any music stores at all - the only places where you can find cd's are at Wal-Mart and Zellers, and the selections are even more dismal than normal. The sad thing is too, there are still plenty of people who would buy cd's there - the last store was still profitable and only closed due to the owner moving away and nobody taking it over.

 

Do you have any proof that BMW will still offer cars will fuel combustion engines in 2015?

You don't and I don't, but nevertheless it is extremely likely, since the market for electric cars is not that developped yet.

It's the same for music and especially movie sales. You can't just abandon the dominant format, as you will loose too many customers who are not ready for the alternatives. It's not just a few wacko collectors who prefer discs, it's still the majority of the music and movie buyers.

If we were talking about 2025, it would be another story.

 

There's always the hope that lossless or high-res download options will eventually happen.

Note that there have been occasions in the past where big corporations "floated" trial balloons as rumors, just to see what the reaction was. I guarantee you, there are discussions going on at Sony, WEA, Universal, and EMI (as well as all the smaller labels) as to when CD production should end. At this point, I don't think it's if -- it's when.

This is no different than Kodak slowly falling apart and putting an end to film. Lots of things are just running out of time on the technological clock.

 

I think download-only music sales has the important risk that file sharing will increase, as for the consumer legit downloads (which currently are generally as or even more expensive than the market price of CDs) offer no advantage over illegal downloads, except for the moral and legal issue.

They will also pose the question whether traditional music labels (who organize everything from the recording, manufacturing, distribution and marketing) are still necessary.

So why would music labels take the risk of alienating the CD buyers and push them towards downloads by simply abandoning CDs? Because they earn more from downloads? That's very short-sighted.

 

I abandoned CDs on my label. It's no use to pay for a full pressing of 3000 copies, only to sell 60 copies the first month, and never see the major shops restore on our products which they think is of no value as it's only reissues of cult stuff.

The last Madonna, or Lady Gaga? This, they will stock and restock. They don't care about anything that doesn't make lots of sales. Hell, they don't even stock the complete Beatles, let alone Stones, or the Stooges, unless it's a recent repackaging.

By contrast, I can press 1000 vinyls, and have them all sold within two months via the net of local vinyl shops all over the world, and direct buyers.

CD is heading towards extinction. It's over.

Note: 10 years ago, I could sell up to 24 000 copies worldwide of the exact same stuff. Why? Because shops took them, and restocked them. Now I only sell CD in Japan, because they are the last major shops doing their CD selling job right. I can go to Tower records Shibuya, and see my releases facing at the front of the racks, recommended. Why there and not everywhere else? It's because in the occident, major shops have lost the way how to work properly, and shoot themselves in the foot by only going for the big moneymakers.

The New PIL have come out first on vinyl, and downloads. It's the sign of things to come.

If anyone interested, I have tons of unsold CDs in my basement. 3€50 apiece

 

S***'s going to get a third (world) party to manufacture CDs and the only way you'll be able to order them is by SMS charged against your phone bill. That way they'll know exactly how many to manufacture. Everything else will be downloads.

 

No more Cd's - just like no more vinyl 30 years ago!