Cds demise, or not?

Not unless it's all contained in one data center, in one location. I guarantee the entire contents of Apple Music, Spotify, etc (okay, maybe not Tidal ) are backed up in multiple locations in the event of some kind of catastrophe. Storage is cheap, and it's pretty easy to automate at this point.

 

Great topic and one I’ve enjoyed discussing for 10 years anyway. CDs are not dead, but they’re terminally ill. As stated, CD players are disappearing quickly from cars and laptops. The vinyl resurgence had at least something to do with young collectors buying into the buzz of analog sounding better than digital. Most younger people with turntables wouldn’t know the difference but that turntable and records look really cool in their Brooklyn loft!

CDs don’t have any of the stuff going for them. I expect they slowly burn out, the exception being out of print of limited edition stuff. Those will always sell and fetch high prices. I bought my first CD player in 1990 (like the girl in the picture!) and it was touted as an improvement over vinyl but other than that, it was the just the medium of the day. What’s the real difference between putting on a tape, 8 track , CD or vinyl?

 

As opposed to the yearly statistics that show the format in steep decline?

 

No, not in opposition to that evidence. CD are clearly in decline, I'd be a fool to say otherwise. My only contention is that its in its final death throes. As I said earlier, it's still a billion dollar industry in the US alone. Never mind Japan where the format still thrives.

In decline, yes. Dead on the vine, no

 

Of course.

I think these articles are primarily responding to those statistics and the fact that stores like Best Buy and Target are moving away from the format. I would imagine that as a result of Best Buy removing CDs from their stores, 2018 sales will be an even greater drop than might have been anticipated. I wouldn't be surprised if CDs are down to 50 million units in 2020.

That said, there was an article in the Los Angeles Times around when the Best Buy announcement was first made, and many independent stores quoted in the article noted that CDs were doing just fine for them, especially used CDs.

If vinyl has proven anything, it's that a format can get pretty close to extinction and still hang on, so anything's possible at this point. These articles aren't going to stop as long as sales plunge downward, though.

 

But are artists getting a decent return on their work that is going on streaming services? I see lots of complaints about low $ payments. I remember Roger McGuinn saying he got a check for, I want to say 8 Miles High? It had been played about a quarter million times in one quarter and his check from the streaming service was something like $9.37.

 

Yeah, my wife sometimes will express an interest or even purchase such a disk.

Oh no, the pay scale is all out of whack, but not atypical of what has happened to content creators in the internet age, I know because I lived through that extreme downward pressure on compensation as a journalist from print into the internet age. The thing is, the horse is not going back into the barn in terms of what consumers want and consumer behavior, and at least with the pot of money being generated beginning to grow again, maybe some new financial arrangements can be struck.

 

CDs will only ever be a representation of what you're meant to hear I totally get the arguments for their existence, and anything recorded with them in mind as a final product - that is the media to own I guess. But I never, ever, fell for the completely ridiculous notion that they were ever, in any way, comparable to the intended analogue sound

 

Just dragged four of those shiny round things through the door this morning.

 

Dead on the vine vs final death throes vs barely hanging on is all semantics and no one is going to agree on what dead means anyway.

Take Lehman Brothers stock. The company went bankrupt 10 years ago in the financial crash but its stock to this day continues to trade at a low level on the pink sheets. Low level like background noise, barely registering at a few pennies/share. Does that mean it's not dead? Depends how you define dead.

I enjoy CDs. I still listen to them in the car. I'm sure there will be CD players available for many years. But sales have cratered and as far as anything on the horizon as for growth driven by new adoption, it's dead. And I think it's different from vinyl as for expecting a resurgence. I'm not saying there never will be one, but at least with vinyl you can say it has always been the best widely available analog consumer format. At one point you could say that as for CDs being the best widely available digital consumer format. I think that can no longer be said with uncompressed higher definition digital now widely available online. My sense is that most people aren't even interested in that, though, instead being satisfied with lossy digital, mp3 or otherwise.

 

Working at a record store that specializes in mainly used items, we sell fairly equal amounts of cds and vinyl. I think a lot of the stigma seen towards compact discs is due to there being A LOT of titles from it's heyday in the 1990's and early 2000s being pushed out the door. You can't give a lot of those cds away. A lot of people didn't put care into them so they're seen as scratched, rotted, etc. As I see more people buying them saying their computer crashed, they lost all their files, they just don't stream, etc., I think they are still the most reliable and affordable format for people that like music. If you ask me, the phone format will die before cds go.

 

Yeah, not by anybody who knows what they're talking about. CD is the superior format. But for when it doesn't sound to be the case, that's down to poor mastering.

CDs are still better than vinyl

 

True, but a lot of the music I like sonically suits vinyl even with it's flaws. I love Motown but have never heard a CD of the mid 60s era that sounds right compared to the old 45s.

 

I have CDR made in 1999 that still sound absolutely perfect. I believe if they're stored in their cases and away from the Sun they last a lot longer than people think

 

I played the first CD-R I burned - a Lee Perry compilation, a couple of weeks ago just to see if it held up. It played flawlessly. The disc was burned in around 2002. It's a cheap disc too, not one of the well known brands. I'll run off another copy soon though just to be safe.

 

For what it's worth.

I loaned a CD from a local blues band, (The Heaters - 90 MPH, a heck of a album from a band from of all places Fayetteville NC) to a couple of friends. These friends are great guys but they tend to smoke, and I mean a lot, so things get forgotten, misplaced and / or misunderstood (often ). Think Cheech and Chong with a eastern NC accent. One day they drove off with the CD on the roof. A week later it was found open and laying in the ditch a half mile from where they started. They gave it back with sheepish apologies and while the case was broken and the insert was water damaged, the darn CD played as good as ever! I've still got it 20 years later.

That I think is pretty impressive.

 

The CD might be dead in terms of mass consumption but, curiously enough, it will become the format of choice for audiophiles, as it is the last alternative to own and collect music in gorgeous audio quality. It will be a specialized segment, no doubt, but a healthy one, as people who truly value music will never disappear - a relatively small but in absolute terms sizable minority. You will be able to recognize a fellow melómano by the simple fact that they collect CDs (or at least vinyl) instead of streaming. It will still be a several-billion dollar worldwide industry. In big, prosperous nations with a high IQ population capable of recognizing the value of CDs and the dangers of streaming such as Germany or Japan it is still the favored format.

Ordinary folks might be content with the abysmal audio quality of Spotify and not worry that their favorite album might be deleted from the catalogue tomorrow, but no music fanatic would.

 

I think this perspective confuses music with the storage medium. A CD isn't music. It's just a container for music. Music is an ephemeral, temporal phenomenon. Collecting stuff really doesn't have anything to do with loving music. In fact many, many people who make music, and make their living making and writing music, don't have vast record and CD collections and aren't remotely audiophiles. The idea that collecting physical stuff is the mark of someone who "truly values music," seems to me to be based on a misconception of what music is. Music and records or CD aren't the same thing. Music isn't a physical thing, it's an experiential phenomenon. It exists when it's heard and disappears when it's not.

 

+1

 

Ah, but I'm no "old guy" by any means (yet.) So at least someone will still be supporting the CD for years and years to come!

 

Agreed 100%. They are the WORST! I say to Hell with Best Buy and their stupid, annoying, cheesy ads too. Boasting on and on about lame ass smartphones.

Who gives a damn what they think. It's all about stupid trends to them now. I'll stick with my CDs. Forever and always! No matter how antiquated or obsolete the trendy folks think they are. Their opinion sucks!

 

Amen brother!

 

From my perspective it was the music industry that try to kill the vinyl format. There was greater profit from the new CD format and the reduction of inventory, cassette, CD, records was a blessing to the music companies and a benefit to the retailers as well. It was probably a relief for retailers not to carry mono and stereo versions of every title. When the business model dictates that there is more profit in streaming the music industry will kill the CD format on it's own. It will be small music labels that will continue to release CDs just like they had done with vinyl issues from the "audiophile" labels.

A few months ago I had taken a small box of CDs to sell/trade at a local used CD vendor. I was shocked when the dealer did not take several Beatles CDs. His explanation is that they do not sell as quickly as they used to that everyone wanted the Beatles music on vinyl. A short time later at a used CD store I was shocked again when they did not take Pink Floyd's "Wish You Were Here" that was in mint condition. Maybe they already had a couple dozen copies in the back.

There will always be collectors who will buy out of print CDs so if there is a renaissance it will happen on eBay where original first issues will be bought and sold. How does one sell something that only exists in a cloud?

 

I do think that cds are rapidly declining. Not dead, but I truly believe within 5 years new cd releases will be almost gone. Look at the evidence: No major cd retailers exist anymore, cd players a pretty rare in new cars now (the major reason that people loved the cd, so that you can play it in your car), very few cds being sold at target, best buy, etc.

Having said that, I definately think we will see a resurgence in cds similar to vinyl. Yes, the sound quality of the music on a cd is the same as streaming hi-res. But, I think people will eventually get tired and bored of not owning anything.

Let's imagine for 20 years, most new music is only released as streaming and nothing is on cd. Then, after 20 years of streaming, some bands start to release their new stuff on a cd. I think younger people will be drawn to it, to have their own little physical cd collection and putting cds in a proper stereo, etc.

I really believe people will eventually get bored with streaming and want to start collecting physical cds. It may be niche, like records, but I think it'll happen

 

every new album (save for a few indies) that comes out every week, still comes out on CD.

stores i visit that sell vinyl say it doesn't sell at all, except the really cheap stuff, to kids.

most customers still buy CD's.

the used CD market is perplexing though. the stores want you to believe that they are not selling at all when bring in items to sell or trade, but then you see the same items you are selling or trading on the shelf for $8 and up. you ask what about the ones on the shelf, and the stock answer is "well we have to sit on them for a long time"