Dustin Hoffman says the cinema is at it's worst.

I thought the exact same thing.

 

I caught that documentary - "Casting By" - it was really compelling. I think it does a good job shedding light on why things have gotten worse in the movie industry - this is just one aspect.

 

To some, the challenge of a huge paradigm shift is a shock to their belief system. There will always be people who deny that a change is happening, even when we're surrounded by the evidence, every day, right in our faces. I concede the point that physical media may never be completely dead as long as fans struggle to keep it alive, but music is effectively dead as a physical, mass-market product. Movies & TV shows are getting there very quickly, more because the stores seem to have no incentive to want to carry the products.

I was equally sad to see so many national bookstore chains collapse over the last 10 years. I don't like to see it, but I accept that it's happening. Does this mean there will never be any more best-selling books? No -- it just means they may not be in physical form. Great writing, great music, great movies, great TV shows... I see all of those going on for many, many years. Just not as books, CDs, DVDs, and Blu-rays.

 

Since you quoted a phrase I made earlier, I feel compelled to respond to your allegation that I have some kind of 'gleeful agenda of format obliteration'. Please don't attribute your interpretations to my comments, because you're way off base. It was just a colorful way to say what is obvious to any industry observer.

I have no skin in the game one way or the other. I like to look at the big picture and have been a long time observer of both cultural and technological changes. My observations are purely evidence driven and what I have said about the demise of physical formats (which does not mean there will not be a niche market) is based on the market trends, the rise of streaming services (which will become dominant in the near future) and the continuing preference of each new generation as they displace the older generations. All of these things are quantifiable. This is what my comments are based upon, quantifiable trends, not some perverse notion that I somehow want to see physical formats die.

 

That must be why I've been able to buy Ringo Starr's latest album in 2015, in both Vinyl and CD formats, amidst this "deadness". (As well as his last two albums released in 2010 and 2012). Before the year 2010, there was no added Vinyl option, only CD.

Sounds like a very familiar Criswell Prediction throughout the past 10 years. We'll check back here in a number of years and see if books and other physical media are some forgotten relics from out of the past.

 

Oh, you'll always be able to buy collectibles in small quantities. There are also shops that'll make you horse & buggy whips and 78RPM records, but it's still not a mass-market product. My joke is that there are records out today that will probably still play in 100 years if you can find a working turntable and stylus; I'm much more doubtful about CDs and hard drives.

Look at the newspaper business today and tell me media industries are doing well. Network television has never been worse, either -- I think this is a dying institution that may not even last another 10 years. I'm not saying I want this to be true; I'm just observing that all signs indicate this is what's happening, whether you choose to see it or not.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox...stone_print_revenue_is_lowest_since_1950.html

It's amazing the number of things that have vanished in the past 10-15 years, particularly things we thought would last forever. Tower Records, mass-market electronic chain stores, Kodak film... technology has crushed a lot of things. I'm sad to see it happen, but I'm not so ignorant as to try to claim it isn't happening. As far as I'm concerned, physical media for film photography, music, books, magazines, and videos are all part of the same paradigm shift.

 

If you agree that we'll always be able to get these things, albeit not "mass market", then why even these grand pronouncements? That goes back to what I said before... the vibe in your posts seems to indicate that you feel that all physical media will ultimately be 'dead' -- as in ZERO, not any around, not anywhere. If you concede there will always be some form of it available -- why even bother with the "Physical Media Is Dead" type of statements? All you really mean is that "Physical Media Is Becoming A Minority". (As of now though, it's still in the billion$).

But you missed the whole point of the Ringo Starr album reference I made:
Before 2010, none of Ringo's newest albums were made available on Vinyl; but in 2010, 2012, and now 2015, Ringo's new albums have all been released on BOTH Vinyl and CD. (Same for Paul McCartney, or any artists). How can it be that Vinyl -- of all things -- is now being made again, with all the craze about everything shifting to downloading/streaming? Doesn't really make sense that the oldest and more primitive physical form of music is making a resurgence NOW, of all times... does it?

They're still making new turntables, never mind about finding an old working one (my used record store gets them in and repairs them constantly). 100 years from now I won't care.
As a matter of fact, my 23-year-old nephew only this morning sent me an email with a photo of his brand new turntable which just arrived at his house yesterday (he loves and collects records and his older previous Audio Technica stopped working).

But I can agree with you about not being sure of CDs/DVDs and hard drives in the future. I'm not a technician, but I also have been wondering how there would ever be lasers and hard drives to read CDs/DVDs in the future. That's why I recently said that I can just stockpile two or three brand new players and HDTV's and keep them in storage until I need them, and they'll last me the rest of my years. That is, IF this physical media apocalypse you predict ever happens.

You say you're not ignorant as to try to claim this all is not happening. Fair enough -- but have you ignored where I have conceded that? Of course I acknowledge that Tower Records went under, and that the stores like Best Buy are stocking less and less physical media in their stores. I also have not ignored that records are now being stocked at many stores, where they were not some 5 years ago (??!). I have acknowledged all of that. I have repeatedly maintained that just because it's lessened, that does not mean it will all be dead or extinct like the dinosaurs, that's all. (You mentioned Kodak Film for example, but there are still older style film cameras in use by photographers, and you can buy film for them -- just not at your local drug store).

 

Mass-market electronics chain stores have "vanished?" Huh?

 

No one in this thread is denying that casual DVD buyers are exiting the game and over all sales are shrinking.

Those of us who still collect can plainly see retailer exclusive/country exclusive titles/very limited 3rd party blu-rays that $30/Amazon MOD titles/TV shows that are DVD only/titles only availble from 1 website/kickstarted exclusive titles/DVDs only available in boxset/titles conspicuously missing from blu-ray.

The problem is some don't see that there is a core set of physical only buyers that will keep Blu-ray afloat with most future titles and even stuff never released in the DVD era into the foreseeable future.

Some of the comparisons are off, IMO. It's like saying McDonald's business is down, therefore Americans must be healthier and less obese than they were before.

 

The question is how forseeable that future is: 5 years? 7 years? I don't see it going a long time.

Oh, people can get fat at dozens of fast-food joints. McDonald's is only one of many causes. This is a straw man argument.

I agree with your hypothesis, but not your conclusion. We're acknowledging the same things but coming up with different results. Show me some links to experts who agree that the physical media business will survive in 10 years.

 

Probably easier to measure when people feel their Blu-ray collection is generally complete rather than in years.

With direct online sales, 3rd party licensing it could be a situation where stores and home videos divisions at labels are cut back but over all sales remain healthy. Same thing happened in the music biz 5-10 years ago where back catalogue employees got cut back despite making more money than the new releases.

 

I would think that given the demographics of physical media folks that the numbers are ever shrinking, thus making it ever more uneconomical for companies to release items on physical media. The numbers go against the assertion in bold.

 

Yes, true, changes in demographics is a key driver. The flip side of that generational change is the convenience factor, which is overwhelmingly favored by younger generations. This is why on-demand streaming is so attractive.

What's more, physical media publishers are helping to drive away many of their own customers with nonsense like this:

 

I was told by the home video people who were laid off at Universal, Paramount, and Sony Pictures 5-6 years ago that it was a direct result of physical DVD/Blu-ray sales drastically falling down. And this is a worldwide epidemic, not just in America. Publishing companies are also laying off people, as are newspapers, magazines, and of course record labels (like almost all of Rhino's staff being laid off years ago).

 

the used market will go on for years...

 

Very true. Whenever anybody tells me that media will disappear, I point out that you can buy used books from the 1800s and early 1900s quite readily, and there's also people who sell 78RPM records for a living. But... neither is a mass-market product. It's kind of like buying old stamps or coins: it's more a relic and a collectible than it is a viable product that can sold to millions of people in stores.

BTW, most accounts have it that this is the year that downloads have overtaken physical media sales, so get ready. The train keeps on a-movin'.

 

Most in the book industry believe physical books will hang around for a while. The technology isn't mature enough for complete conversion and physical books have a collectible factor missing in digital versions. The other entertainment industries believe most physical media will be gone by 2030. Music and/or news will almost certainly be the first type to become almost entirely digital.

 

I'm ready and rare'in to go buy more used media!

 

Right...
BUT...
Then what's the point in even bringing it up as though it's any kind of Death Knell?
This is my point... okay, so what? So the stores don't carry them and they're offered online instead... well, so are downloads. Many things are now an Online Market.

You know, the stores and companies often steer things the way they want it to go, rather than letting the consumers decide. The same thing occurred in the 80s, when CD's were pushed in stores, and Vinyl was phased out. It wasn't the consumers at the time who necessarily were thrilled at first to replace all their records and their turntables; I was actually a willing early adopter to CD at first, when all my friends found themselves resisting but had to give in to CD when record stores and music companies just decided for them that records weren't going to made or stocked in stores anymore. Likewise, the stores and companies these days have now decided they're going to take out the physical media and resign them to The Internet for buying. Thus, some people see empty store shelves and arrive at the incorrect sweeping generalization: "People don't want them anymore".

 

Yup. You, me, tons of kids -- many people. Some folks have drank the Kool-Aid in imagining and predicting a world one day where nobody will care about physical anything anymore. They're actually buying into that, based on the current hip trend. But by nature, many people like to collect, own, and have tangible objects. This will never change, and many of today's youngest generation members know this and are having a great time now discovering vinyl and CDs.

 

>>Global revenue from music downloads and subscriptions has overtaken sales of physical formats for the first time. In 2014, digital revenue grew nearly 7 percent to $6.85 billion, while physical sales — of which CDs make up the vast majority — fell 8 percent to $6.82 billion. These figures, from a report from the International Federation of the Phonographic Industry (IFPI), also reflect the growing popularity of digital music streaming, with revenue from services like Spotify growing 40 percent to $1.57 billion.<<

That settles it, physical media fans! Give up your collection !
Physical sales are selling "only" $6.82 billion" !

 

Let me put it to you this way:

 

yes, we got it...just can't imagine not having my music and movie library.
reaping the benefits of the ones that don't want them.

 

I do not like the look of that pie! not looking forward to the wake.

 

Don't forget, the pie is from 2013. I'm sure that today the yellow area would be significantly larger.