Predicting the Movie Bombs of 2012

Discussion in 'Visual Arts' started by Vidiot, May 18, 2012.

  1. Vidiot

    Vidiot Motion Picture | High-Fidelity

    I saw the early reviews that just went up on Sasha Baron Cohen's The Dictator, and thought "whoo-boy"... :sigh:

    There's some real iffy movies coming out or about to come out, and I'm curious if anybody wants to place some bets on how they're gonna do.

    Over a year ago, I expressed doubts about Battleship -- a movie inspired by a 50-year-old board game -- but damned if it didn't do very well overseas. It looks like it'll do well after all. Dark Shadows, though, looked fun and interesting in the trailers, but it's underperforming and sinking fast.

    So what's gonna be the "John Carter" of the summer? My gut tells me that Men in Black 3 may not live up to expectations. I don't think it's gonna be bad, but I tend to doubt it'll come anywhere near the first two movies in terms of box office. Even with the time-travel element, I think there may be too much "been there/done that."

    Pirahana 3DD... come on. The new Snow White movie has almost gotta do better than the previous Julia Roberts version, Mirror Mirror, which pretty much tanked. I'm still doubtful that Prometheus will come close to Alien-sized business, because it's a very dark, downbeat movie with an ending that, well... :cry: I'll say no more.

    Another movie that I think is very iffy is the Tom Cruise Rock of Ages pastiche. I think rock fans will be kind of offended that the original groups don't perform the songs, plus they won't like the "Broadway musical" angle, and then regular audiences won't want to see a raunchy rock & roll movie. I'm not sure who the audience is for this thing. (Me, I'll see it, but only out of affection for the Sunset Strip of the 1980s, which I remember very well.)

    I think the new Batman Dark Knight Rises will be huge, probably the second biggest movie of the year next to Avengers. And I think Spiderman will do well.

    There are a couple of really, really weird ones coming out this summer that I suspect will just go out with a thud: Ted, the weird Marky Mark fantasy done by Seth McFarland (35-year-old adult has an anthropomorphic teddy bear who's alive), and Magic Mike, Steven Soderberg's take on Channing Tatum as the leader of a team of male strippers. I'm befuddled as to why the latter had to be made. I think it could go on a double-bill with Cher's Burlesque, which was a legendary bad film. And there's also another weird fantasy, The Odd Life of Timothy Green, about a childless couple who basically grow an instant 10-year-old in a hole in their back yard... it's such a weird idea, I'd question it as anything but a 20-minute Twilight Zone segment.

    I think there's quite a few other movies that'll do OK: Madagascar, Ice Age, Total Recall, Expendables 2, Bourne Legacy, Wimpy Kid... lotsa sequels that won't exactly win Oscars, but will make money and please their intended audiences. Some other films, like Disney's Brave, don't do much for me -- I never understood the need to make an animated film about live-action characters, where you could just shoot it with people. (But that's me.)

    Any other votes for hits and misses? It's a weird year for films. As for the end of 2012, I'm looking forward to The Hobbit... but I'm nervous about the weird 48fps frame rate, and I also question as to why the shortest book has to get the longest movie (5 hours+, spread over two parts and $500 million).
  2. Johnny66

    Johnny66 Active Member

    Location:
    Australia.
    You're like the Summer movie Grinch! :sigh: :laugh:
  3. Vidiot

    Vidiot Motion Picture | High-Fidelity

    Naaaa, it's just armchair speculation, no worse than people predicting how the NFL will go over a season. Strictly business.

    I just hope the successes don't suck too much! There's always the chance a big hit will be an awful movie, and a genuinely good movie tanks big-time. Quality and box-office are not the same thing. What's really sad is when a director really goes all-out and tries to make a great statement, and puts years of work into a fine film that just does "OK," but not great. The middling movies drive people crazy, because they don't exactly bomb, but they don't make any money, either.
  4. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat and Abbie: Best Dogs Ever

    Location:
    Alexandria VA
    I don't think anyone's predicting big things for "Piranha", so it really can't bomb. If it makes $25 million, it'll equal the gross of the last one in the series...
  5. Jayski

    Jayski Forum Resident

    Location:
    NC
    The lower you go (expectations), the happier you'll be.
  6. Rocker

    Rocker Forum Resident

    Location:
    Ontario, Canada
    I'd have bigger hopes for the sequel if Alexandre Aja was returning as director. (The sequel's director is some guy I've never even heard of). Aja's output so far has been pretty decent; he's one of the few modern horror directors I've been keeping my eye on.
  7. Matthew B.

    Matthew B. Scream Quietly

    Location:
    Saitama, Japan
    I take it you've already seen it, then? And for that matter, seen Burlesque?

    More like predicting how much money each franchise will make over a season. Is that what the fans spend their time discussing these days?
  8. off_2_the_side

    off_2_the_side Well-Known Member

    Location:
    London, ON, Canada
    Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter gives me a Scott Pilgrim/Snakes on a Plane/Sucker Punch vibe where it's all internet memey and hipstery and then we learn all over again that this demographic just isn't enough to make a mainstream movie into a hit. So I will stick my neck out and call on this one as the most likely to bomb.
  9. Yankee8156

    Yankee8156 Forum Resident

    Location:
    New York
    I think you're probably right abut this.

    I also have a feeling people might be a little let down by the Dark Knight Rises. I think it will be good, but the last one set expectations so high. It'll probably be more on the level of Batman Begins, which is fine by me.
  10. music4life

    music4life Well-Known Member

    Location:
    South Elgin, IL
    They've remade "Total Recall"?...
  11. neo123

    neo123 Well-Known Member

    Location:
    Northern Kentucky
    First one I thought of when I saw this thread. Though, I still can't wait to see it.
  12. Thurenity

    Thurenity There's no basement at the Alamo

    Location:
    Eastern PA, USA
    It was a great book -- I hope it translates into the movie. I give it a clean 50/50 shot that it will bomb.

    If they just make it into a comedy, it will probably bomb. But if they take the subject matter seriously like the book did, it might actually be a decent movie.
  13. tommy-thewho

    tommy-thewho Forum Resident

    Location:
    detroit, mi
    Kate Beckinsale is in the new Total Recall and she shows quite a bit of skin I've been told.
  14. RDK

    RDK Active Member

    Location:
    Los Angeles, CA
    Don't discount "Ted." What I've seen of it is unbelievably good/hilarious. This could be a not-so-surprising smash.
  15. RDK

    RDK Active Member

    Location:
    Los Angeles, CA
    Agreed. Piranha 3DD may be terrible, but it's gonna do anything but bomb.
  16. daglesj

    daglesj Forum Resident

    Location:
    Norfolk, UK
    I couldn't believe another Ice Age movie was on the way.

    Going on longer then the real thing it seems.

    I still feel Prometheus could be the biggest movie disappointment since The Phantom Menace. The fact they have shown so much in the trailers just worries me. Learnt my lesson with Tropic Thunder on that one.

    I hope not though.
  17. MekkaGodzilla

    MekkaGodzilla Forum Resident

    Location:
    Westerville, Ohio
    I agree with the OP on Rock of Ages. Who exactly is the audience for this? I was a teen in the 80's and I have ZERO desire to see this film so who exatcly IS the audience? Tom Cruise fans? People who like Tenacious D? Show tunes crowd? Rocky Horror fans? Today's teenagers who believe Stacy Jaxx sounds like an awesome rock and roll name? I literally see this opening to empty theaters.

    My pick for "Flop Of The Year" would be Friends With Kids . For two weeks before it's opening, this film was EVERYWHERE. Numerous magazine articles, the stars hitting the talk show/SNL circuit and then it barely opened and closed down pretty darned quickly. I know it wasn't expected to make $100 million, but they were really pushing that "From The Folks Who Brought You Bridesmaids!" vibe. It made 7 million total.
  18. daglesj

    daglesj Forum Resident

    Location:
    Norfolk, UK
    I saw a trailer for Rock of Ages what seems like nearly a year or more ago.

    Has it been sitting on a shelf or something?
  19. Tristero

    Tristero Forum Resident

    Not really bombs, but I predict that Dark Knight will do respectable but not great business and Spiderman will be a disappointment--I saw the preview for that and I just don't understand the rationale behind the reboot. Same for Total Recall.
  20. ZAck Scott

    ZAck Scott Forum Resident

    I think the rationale for the reboot is for the next Avengers Movie (since Spiderman is a Marvel property).
  21. Tristero

    Tristero Forum Resident

    Well, I think the Avengers set the bar pretty damn high and some of these more familiar characters may have trouble keeping up the pace. Maybe it's just me, but I was thoroughly satisfied with the original trilogy (OK, the third one was a bit weak) and I'm not seeing a fresh angle here. In the case of Batman, they'd befouled the franchise so badly with the cheesy Batman & Robin and the new movies brought a more serious, edgy approach that was refreshing.
  22. chargrove

    chargrove Forum Ghost Hunter

    Location:
    Fort Worth, TX
    Nice write-up...thanks to the OP
  23. Matthew B.

    Matthew B. Scream Quietly

    Location:
    Saitama, Japan
    Nope. The film rights for Spider-Man (like the X-Men) aren't held by Marvel Studios.
  24. kevywevy

    kevywevy Well-Known Member

    No, but I'm predicting that there will be lots of big things bouncing around in Paranha 3DD.
  25. malcolm reynolds

    malcolm reynolds Forum Resident

    Location:
    Oklahoma
    If The Dark Knight Rises does less than The Dark Knight will it be a bomb? And will people finally admit that the only reason TDK made so much money is because Ledger died before it was released?

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