Predicting the Movie Bombs of 2012

I think it made so much money because of Heath's performance, not so much that he died.

 

Nolan's Batmans are terrific. He could have used many other actors for The Joker and pulled off TDK. This is not to slight Ledger's ability whatsoever.

 

I'm with Paul on this one. Curiosity over the death of an actor doesn't usually translate to a half a billion dollars in sales. I think it was the fact that there was so much talk about how good his performance was and that the Joker character is easily one of the, if not the, greatest superhero villain out there. Batman Begins was a very good film that reestablished the popularity of Batman. Throw in the most recognizable villain, and lots of critical praise for Ledger's performance, and you've got a huge box office return. I don't think Ledger's death was the driving force there. Added some fuel to an already growing fire, if anything.

I'd also say that not outranking the 3rd highest grossing film of all time probably wouldn't qualify it as a "bomb." But I don't expect it to make as much (or more) as the Dark Knight. But if it doesn't make as much as everything else, short of the Avengers, then the studio might be left slightly disappointed.

 

Maybe, but for me, Ledger really made the movie. I went back and watched it again a while ago and it didn't hold up quite as well as I remembered apart from him. Almost every scene with him had me captivated. I'll be curious to see if this next installment can inject new life in the franchise or if the dark, brooding approach starts to wear thin.

 

Wow, the vultures are circling earlier this year.

 

The first Rock of Ages trailer debuted back in December. Maybe you need a new calendar?

 

Wow, tough crowd. So now if a movie isn't as successful as one of the biggest of all time it qualifies as a "bomb?"

 

The Dictator

 

Well, a lot of how we judge these things depends on expectations and the bar has been set high here. Of course, DKR is going to bring in some big numbers, but will it fall far short of the last one? Often, it seems like franchises like this start to get tired by the third release, but if it generates a lot of positive buzz, they might be able to overcome that. I'm still not sure how I feel about Anne Hathaway as Catwoman. She's got some big boots to fill and Bane is a less well known adversary.

 

Bane is pretty well-known to any of the audience that watches the animated Batman. They used that villain often. And it's a large number of viewers for the movies.

 

Yeah, but the thing is, when only two other movies have made as much as the Dark Knight, I think it gets a special pass for falling behind. Now, if it falls far short, that might be a different story. No doubt it will be compared with the return for the Avengers, which is a better comparison.

 

The Magic Mike movie mystifies me. I can't figure out what audience they think will pay to see it.

 

I forced myself to sit through Burlesque, and thought it was possibly the worst major studio film I've seen in the last ten years. Jaw-droppingly, mind-numbingly awful.

Soderberg is a better filmmaker than that, so I'm sure Magic Mike will be a better-made, better-written film. But from what I know about the movie and what I see in the trailers... I'm scratching my head as to why anybody thought this was a story that had to be told.

I think Seth McFarland is a very funny guy, but I dunno. A hard-R-rated movie about a guy with a raunchy Teddy Bear? It could well be funny -- I laughed at Team America, another weird R-rated film that made no money -- but I see this as a major bomb.

Aw, I loved Tropic Thunder. But I'm not getting a good vibe from Prometheus, especially with a budget of $120 million. I'd be surprised if it's a hit... and I think Ridley Scott is one of the best filmmakers of the last 30 years. But he sometimes makes some weird, "out there" uncommercial movies.

 

The last Dark Knight made $533M domestic and another $500M overseas, for a total of a billion dollars. I think the general rule of thumb is, if the sequel can do at least 2/3 the business of the last film, the studio is happy. I'm guessing it'll do $350M+$350M for a total of $700M, which will be very good but not through the roof.

Spiderman is more iffy -- new cast, new director, new producers -- but I like the trailers and I think it'll do well. The original issue in 2009 was that Sony parted company with director Sam Raimi because he wanted to make a $250 million movie; the word was that the new reboot was only going to be about $100M. Now, the rumors are that the movie's final budget was over $200,000,000! My guess it wasn't that high, but I bet it was much higher than expected.

I'm a little dubious on Total Recall, especially now that I found out they jettisoned the entire Mars plotline. I dunno -- to me, everytime Hollywood does a Philip K. Dick story, they make a lotta changes that just screw it up. (And I'm the one guy who didn't like Blade Runner, except for the visuals.)

No, the rationale for the movie is that Sony Needs Money. They desperately need two major franchise releases to bring in some bucks, and they're hoping Spiderman and Men in Black will do the job. I'm optimistic about the former, not so much about the latter.

Disney and Marvel get all the money from Avengers, so Spiderman is (mostly) a Sony deal. Marvel gets a big chunk, but not like what they took in on Iron Man and Avengers.

 

I really WANT Battleship to bomb, just so maybe this whole "let's make movies about children's toys" ******** will finally end. But of course it will be huge and then that will be another excuse for Michael Bay to continue unleashing mind-sucking turds on the general public. (I know Battleship isn't his, but it might as well be).

Michael Bay is tied with Roland Emmerich in my "WORST DIRECTOR OF ALL-TIME" list.

The Piranha sequel couldn't possibly be worse than the previous film (a horror comedy that achieved neither), I'm sure it will make it's money back because these aren't very expensive films to begin with.

Ted looks funny and I like the people involved with the film.

 

I gotta say, they've made some terrible, terrible movies. I hope both of these guys go back and watch Avengers a few times to see how a big blockbuster action film can actually have a decent story, characters you can identify with, and a plot that makes sense from start to finish... and still be a huge commercial hit.

Hard to argue with that -- it's not my kinda film, but at least they're not taking it seriously, and it's a goof.

 

Update: I may have spoken too soon about Battleship being a hit...

From Deadline:Hollywood:

BOMBS AWAY! ‘Battleship’ Starts Weak In Still Strong ‘Avengers’ Wake:
Lame ‘What To Expect’ Behind Limping ‘The Dictator’

Universal’s Battleship is “certain to be soft,” according to my studio sources. ‘There’s no indication it’s going to break out and do huge numbers.” It opened with only $420K midnights from 1,074 theaters: that’s weaker than Warner Bros’ underperforming Dark Shadows last weekend and even Disney’s notorious 2012 bomb John Carter....

 

so is Monopoly next on must do board games for movies list ?

 

What the hell? How can it be a Total Recall remake/reboot without the Mars plotline? That would be like remaking Blade Runner without the replicants!

I`ve had low expectations for the new Total Recall ever since I first heard about it... but now they`ve sunk even lower.

 

I'm happy he's not returning. I liked what Aja did with "Hills Have Eyes" but thought "Piranha" was pretty bad - and one of the most nauseating films I've ever seen. I'm not terribly squeamish, but that film was just too disgusting too much of the time...

 

No - unless it does a TON less money - and definitely no. No movie makes $500 million plus just because a "B"-level actor in it died before it was released...

 

The only film Aja has done that I liked was "High Tension" and the twist ending negated the entire film. Piranha was ruined by it's reliance on gore, it canceled out all the comedy. It's a fine balance for horror comedy and most people don't nail it. "The Cabin In The Woods" is a textbook example of how to do horror comedy correctly.

 

What didn't you like about "Hills Have Eyes"? I thought that one worked well. (Never saw "High Tension".)

Other than some good nudity, "Piranha" was just awful. The first half was boring and the second half was nauseating...

 

Paycheck was actually improved from a story that wouldn't play that well this century. Minority Report was pretty well-fleshed out from the story. Imposter was actually pretty good and pretty faithful; no one saw it. A Scanner Darkly was very little futzed with and I would say one of the most successful Dick movies, despite Keanu Reeves. . . .

 

I saw the trailer. Not impressed.