Predicting the Movie Hits and Bombs of 2015

Discussion in 'Visual Arts' started by Vidiot, Dec 12, 2014.

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  1. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    I don't know if Kingsman will be a hit or not, but judging by the trailer it looks like a riot. The early reviews are very good for this one...

     
  2. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Senior Member

    Location:
    Canada
    Two big names giving Broken Horses the thumbs up.

     
  3. daglesj

    daglesj Forum Resident

    Location:
    Norfolk, UK
    Peanuts...outside the USA I think the appeal has dwindled. You rarely see the old shows or films shown here in the UK anymore. I must admit as a kid 35+ years ago I found them baffling as they seemed to have little relevance to me. Charlie Brown would have got a lot of slaps if he was at my school. What a drip!

    Might do well domestic but bomb elsewhere.
     
  4. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    And here's a list from Business Insider as to the Top 12 movies they're predicting for 2015:

    12. 'Fifty Shades of Grey' (Universal/Focus Features)
    11. 'Ted 2' (Universal)
    10. 'Inside Out' (Pixar/Disney)
    9. 'Terminator: Genisys' (Paramount)
    8. 'Mission Impossible 5' (Paramount)
    7. 'Jurassic World' (Universal)
    6. 'Minions' (Universal)
    5. 'Spectre' (Sony)
    4. 'The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2' (Lionsgate)
    3. 'Furious 7' (Universal)
    2. 'The Avengers: Age of Ultron' (Disney)
    1. 'Star Wars: The Force Awakens' (Disney)


    Disney's Bob Iger is predicting an unbelievable $4 billion for Star Wars, which I think is way high, but I think hitting $1 billion is guaranteed. I'm still skeptical about the Fast & Furious sequel being a hit, because of the ghoulish factor of having a CG copy of a dead actor in much of the film, but I can't argue with any of the other hit predictions.

    One movie they omitted from the list was Brad Bird's Tomorrowland, which I think by far could be the most interesting film of the year. Everything else is a sequel, a remake, or a film version of a novel, though I guess you could argue that Tomorrowland is just a movie of a theme park ride. But I think it's going to be a lot more than that. Brad Bird hasn't disappointed me yet.

    http://www.businessinsider.com/biggest-movies-2015-2014-12?op=1
     
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  5. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Senior Member

    Location:
    Canada
    Not if it gets reviews like "and you thought the prequels were bad……" $4B would make it the biggest movie of all time worldwide ahead of Titanic, Gone with Wind, Star Wars and Avatar (in adjusted for inflation dollars). Clearly Iger is all in based on what he knows already about this movie.
     
  6. $4B for Star Wars? No chance - I'd wager it will reach half of that (at the very most)... Realistically, $1.5B would be a dream scenario for those involved, though I reckon Furious 7 is going to be a concern. Also, I wouldn't be surprised at all if Spectre is delayed until early 2016. As I said before, Fifty Shades could yet go either way, though I'm more curious to see if anything finally comes of the film option for Sylvia Day's far better written similar "Crossfire" series that I first heard about last year.
     
  7. tomhayes

    tomhayes Senior Member

    Location:
    San Diego, Ca
    I'm in for Blart 2., so it'll make at least $12.00.
     
  8. Alfie Noakes

    Alfie Noakes Not Dark Yet....

    Location:
    Long Beach, CA
    Man... that's a depressing list :D
     
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  9. Bryan

    Bryan Starman Jr.

    Location:
    Berkeley, CA
    Sure is. The only movie on there that isn't a sequel or an adaptation is the Pixar film Inside Out, which is a kids' movie.
     
  10. tomhayes

    tomhayes Senior Member

    Location:
    San Diego, Ca
    So 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9 and 11 are sequels?

    And there's no way TED 2 is going to be that big.
     
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  11. GlamorProfession

    GlamorProfession Forum Resident

    Location:
    Tejas
    Star Wars and the Avengers Ultron will rake in loads of cash of course. i don't know if Mad Max will do well but i'm looking forward to seeing it. definitely looking forward to Tomorrowland but wonder how much widespread appeal it will have. When is Incredibles 2 coming out?
     
  12. Mirrorblade.1

    Mirrorblade.1 Forum Resident

    Pixels the Adam Sandler movie will bomb bad.
    He wore his welcome.
     
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  13. Maggie

    Maggie like a walking, talking art show

    Location:
    Toronto, Canada
    My predictions last year were pretty good, as you can see here: http://forums.stevehoffman.tv/threa...-and-bombs-of-2014.338913/page-3#post-9853183 . I was wrong, I think, about Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit, and probably will be wrong about Annie (though who could have predicted the Sony leak?) -- but I was bang-on about ALMOST everything else, especially Guardians and Interstellar (which I later, wrongly, lost confidence in!). The main things I didn't foresee were the success of Divergent and, more seriously, the massive success of Maleficent.

    So, with patting myself on the back out of the way, I'm going to say the following:

    * The studio heads aren't as stupid as we think they are. Paul Blart 2 will come out in the winter/early spring when there's nothing else on and will clean up in the US of A, just like the first one did.

    * Peanuts will be a modest success and more than recoup its budget in North America alone

    * Mad Max and Terminator are question marks, but I anticipate both will be well-reviewed and will be international hits, with domestic grosses in the region of $100-$150 million (what you might call Edge of Tomorrow numbers)

    * 50 Shades of Grey will have a $60 million opening weekend but will not last (and will probably earn terrible reviews, if it screens for critics at all, which it will not)

    * Of those listed, only Amityville, Transporter, and Friday the 13th are sure-thing flops
     
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  14. Scott Wheeler

    Scott Wheeler Forum Resident

    Location:
    ---------------
    50 shades of gray will be a huge hit.
     
  15. Johnny66

    Johnny66 Laird of Boleskine

    Location:
    Australia.
    Any Friday film keeps the franchise ticking over, and likely makes the lion's share of any profit via ancillary markets. Toy licensing, in particular, is increasingly lucrative for horror properties, given the robust adult collector market.
     
  16. tomhayes

    tomhayes Senior Member

    Location:
    San Diego, Ca
    What if Friday The 13th was the 13th Friday film starring Ice Cube??!!?

    If Chris Tucker shows up high on angel dust wearing a hockey mask and chasing Craig around in black and white while a Curtis Mayfeild song is playing ... well then they have my $13.00 already.
     
  17. mikeyt

    mikeyt Forum Resident

    Location:
    Los Angeles, CA
    You think Grey will open at $60 mil? I don't think the initial trailer cultivated the attention that the studio had expected and came off as more of a potential dud than a potential good movie. I think it'll open at around $35 mil tops as most will wait for word of mouth, then peter out from there once the terrible reviews get around. It's not really a date movie, it's not a movie that will generate much from the male audience, it doesn't have much interest in the older crowd, and teens will be limited since it's rated R. It's got all the ingredients of a dud to me.
     
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  18. Scott Wheeler

    Scott Wheeler Forum Resident

    Location:
    ---------------
    The novel sold something like 10,000,000,000,000 copies. Never underestimate the buying power of sex starved women. Titanic made it's billion primarily on 16 year old girls seeing it 10 times or more. This movie will make a ton of money. The audience is already built in
     
  19. mikeyt

    mikeyt Forum Resident

    Location:
    Los Angeles, CA
    This is true. Though Titanic was PG-13, was an epic love story, and featured Leo DiCaprio in his pretty boy prime. Grey has the edginess thing going for it, but the trailer got more laughs than anything. I don't think the money will come for it, but we'll see come Valentine's day.
     
  20. My prediction for the average review of Fifty Shades in four words: "Too little, too late."

    Similarly, is it too soon to predict the Angry Birds movie (due all the way in the summer of 2016!) will also be a major bomb for this very reason? Would even the most die-hard of fans care by then?
     
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  21. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    It's too early to say it's a terrible movie, but I'd also bet on about a $30M-$35M opening weekend and then a sharp 70% plummet after that. Worldwide, I bet it could do $150M total. The film cost $40M plus $70M marketing, so if it made $150M, that would be profitable but not a blockbuster. If it did north of $250M, that would be huge... but I tend to doubt it can go the distance.
     
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  22. You're forgetting some things:
    (a) This movie doesn't target teenage girls, being R-rated and all, it targets older women who are more likely to see the movie once - if at all.
    (b) This isn't exactly the sort of romantic movie that tends to do well among female audiences - it's more akin to softcore BDSM porn, if I understand the nature of the novels correctly.
    (c) The "sex starved women" would've got their jollies from the books. Visual porn appeals more to men, and I don't think this is going to attract many guys.

    I think this movie is going to be, if not a bomb, a financial disappointment.
     
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  23. Deesky

    Deesky Forum Resident

    Yeah, that's what they all say! :D
     
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  24. cwsiggy

    cwsiggy Forum Resident

    Location:
    Vero Beach, FL
    $4 billion for Star Wars VII? Not a chance. But of course it will print huge coin.
     
  25. Scott Wheeler

    Scott Wheeler Forum Resident

    Location:
    ---------------
    This book sold over 100,000,000 copies and that is a real number. If middle aged women are shelling out money for the book you can bet a good number of them are going to go see it in the theaters. Let's break it down to what it really is. This is porn for women *dressed as a legitimate movie*. So there is no shame factor in seeing it. Porn for men, in it's "illegitimate form" comprises something like 20% of the film industry's gross income. And that is without theatrical releases. This movie is going to make stupid money. Over 100,000,000 copies sold. let's put that into perspective, The entire Hunger Games *trilogy* has sold just over 25,000,000 units. How have those movies done at the box office? Yeah I'm sure there is no interest in this kind of sexual fantasy stuff among women of any age. :cool: $$$$$$$$$$$
     
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