Predicting the Movie Hits and Bombs of 2017

Discussion in 'Visual Arts' started by Vidiot, Dec 3, 2016.

  1. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    And the box office analysts have been busy. They've already got a list of what might be the Top 20 Movies for 2017...

    Box Office Prediction: 20 Highest-Grossing Movies Of 2017 »

    Short list:

    The Lego Batman Movie
    Cars 3*
    Kingsman: The Golden Circle
    (though I can't see how they're going to bring Colin Firth back)
    Logan (the final Wolverine movie with Hugh Jackman)
    The Mummy (Universal reboots the franchise yet again with a new cast)
    Fifty Shades Darker (based on the best-selling sex novel)
    Dunkirk (new Chris Nolan WWII epic)
    Power Rangers (reboot of the 1980s TV show)
    War for the Planet of the Apes (more CG monkeys)
    Thor: Ragnarok
    Wonder Woman
    (an extension of the WB Superman franchise)
    Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (Marvel superhero/sci-fi sequel)
    Fast 8 (like Cars, only with actual humans)
    Spiderman: Homecoming (made by Marvel for Sony, featuring Robert Downey as Iron Man)
    Beauty & The Beast (live action Disney remake with fan favorite Emma Watson)
    Justice League (WB version of The Avengers)
    Transformers: The Last Knight
    (please make it stop)
    Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales
    Despicable 3
    (featuring Minions and more Minions)
    Star Wars: Episode VIII

    Note that almost every single one of these is either a sequel or a remake or a reboot. I think Dunkirk is a real stretch for Nolan, and while this story has been told before, no doubt he'll put a unique spin on it. I think Guardians can't miss because it's got the Raccoon in it, and the early Spiderman clips seem to show that Marvel knows better than anybody else (especially Sony) how to tell those stories.

    It's interesting to me that Johnny Depp would make yet another Pirates movie, after six or seven huge bombs in a row (including Lone Ranger, Dark Shadows, and Alice Through the Looking Glass. The Fast & Furious movies to me have been getting worse and worse (maybe they can rename the series to Fast & Stupider), but by god, the movies make huge money -- over $1.5 billion.

    I don't get the 15 upcoming live-action remakes of classic Disney cartoons, and I think it's just lame and stupid beyond belief. But: I was wrong about Cinderella not making any money, since it did over $550M and cost under $100M (which is where all these films' budgets should be but generally aren't). Universal has really put the lid on the Illumination animated films, so the whole Despicable Me/Minions movies have been very economical but still made a fortune. I think they don't look nearly as polished as comparable films from Pixar or Disney, but they're not terrible. I honestly believe that the reason why Dreamworks Animation sold out is because Minions made over $1 billion and only cost $74M, which is chump change for a big feature-length cartoon. Almost all the Disney/Pixar/Dreamworks films start at $150M and went up from there. (Famously, Tangled cost $260M.)

    I don't know if the Kingsman movie concept is strong enough to turn into a whole franchise -- basically, James Bond at 20 -- but the last one did unexpectedly well and had some moments. I think Universal is flogging a dead horse with The Mummy; they desperately want another franchise, and reviving all their old horror movies has been booted around before. (Anybody remember The Wolfman?) But I dunno... there's a lotta been there/done that. I'm personally tired of the whole Apes thing, but no question the quality of the CG is impeccable.

    Star Wars is (pardon the pun) a force to be reckoned with, and the last one made $2 billion+. I see no reason why the next one won't do as well unless it unexpectedly sucks. Heck, the three prequels sucked (for many), and those made a total of $2.5 billion.

    2017 is gonna be an interesting year for Hollywood...


    * I hate the whole Cars premise personally, but I don't dispute there's a big audience for it and even bigger merchandise and theme park ride potential.
     
  2. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    BTW, this list left out Kong: Skull Island and Bad Boys 3, and I suspect there are big audiences out there for both. The trailer for Skull Island is very, very good, and I think they've anticipated a lot of potential mistakes that have been made with Giant Monkey remakes before. I don't like the content of the Bad Boys films, but I think that technically, Michael Bay makes very good-looking films. I can watch them on Blu-ray with the sound off and marvel at the pictures. Dialogue, story, and characters... not so much. But I would be very surprised if these two films don't do very well.

    Star Wars: Rogue One is going to be a holdover from this Xmas, and I think it's gonna do well but not incredibly well. I could see this doing anywhere from $600M-$800M, but that's going to be huge for Disney because there are no high-paid actors in the cast. Harrison Ford reportedly made $20M for Star Wars VII (plus another $10M in profit participation), and they don't have him to kick around anymore unless he comes back as a ghost.
     
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  3. Deesky

    Deesky Forum Resident

    Of those 2017 movies listed above, I'm not much interested in the vast majority. I probably will see War for the Planet of the Apes and Star Wars: Episode VIII, but that's it (from that list).
     
  4. ohnothimagen

    ohnothimagen PORKCHOPS! Productions

    Out of that entire list Star Wars Episode 8 and the Pirates Of The Caribbean movie are the only ones I have any interest in seeing.
     
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  5. Rhapsody In Red

    Rhapsody In Red Formerly Wrapped in Plastic

    next year is going to have a lot of interesting options...

    of that list Kingsman, Logan, Guardians of the Galaxy 2, Spider-Man, Pirates of the Carribean, and Star Wars are standouts.

    Kong, Ghost in the Shell, Alien, Valerian and the Thousand Planets, The Dark Tower, Blade Runner 2049, Super Troopers 2, and T2 are the movies Im really waiting for next year. There is also Split, Bastards, Gold, A Dog's Purpose, John Wick 2, Weightless, King Arthur, Wilson, Tommy's Honour, God Knows Where I am, Gifted, Low Riders, Life, The Hitman's Bodyguard, American Made, The Snowman, Creed 2, Jumani, Downsizing, The Greatest Showman on Earth, All Eyez On Me, Chicken Soup for the Soul, Splinter Cell, Six Billion Dollar Man...

    My guess is the most successful will come down to marketing. With 7 billion people world wide bad movies can become hugely profitable.
     
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  6. JerolW

    JerolW Forum Resident

    Kingsman: The Golden Circle (though I can't see how they're going to bring Colin Firth back)
    Wonder Woman (an extension of the WB Superman franchise)
    Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (Marvel superhero/sci-fi sequel)
    Justice League (WB version of The Avengers)
    Star Wars: Episode VIII


    These for me.

    Kingsman: The Golden Circle (though I can't see how they're going to bring Colin Firth back)

    Bullet-proof glasses

    jerol
     
  7. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits and Abbie: Best Dogs Ever

    Location:
    Alexandria VA
    Of that list, the only one that doesn't interest me at all is "Fifty Shades Darker". The first movie was terrible and I can't imagine the next chapter will be better - unless we see a lot more naked Dakota Johnson, I guess!

    I'm not excited about some - really iffy on the live-action "Beauty" - but I'll see all the rest, and I'll see "Fifty" if Uni sends me a review Blu-ray. I ain't paying money to see it, though!

    Oh, I'm also extremely lukewarm on "Power Rangers". I might see it but have no enthusiasm for it.

    I'll almost certainly see the rest. What can I say? I like big blockbusters! :shrug:
     
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  8. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits and Abbie: Best Dogs Ever

    Location:
    Alexandria VA
    In terms of box office predictions, I think it's nearly guaranteed that "Star Wars: Episode 8" will be the year's biggest hit.

    Of the first 7 movies, 6 "won" the box office in their respective years.

    Only 2002's "Clones" failed to become its year's biggest earner - largely because it followed a movie that fans viewed as a severe disappointment, and because it wasn't very good, either. "Sith" was a better film and the audience returned somewhat.

    "E8" follows the very well-received "Force Awakens", a movie that fans happily embraced.

    And don't forget that "Force" made almost one billion dollars in the US!

    "E8" could make 1/3rd less than "Force" and still be the fifth top-grossing movie in US history.

    I doubt "E8" will equal/top the gross of "Force", but it's possible - especially if it's as good as "Force".

    I'm gonna predict $700m US for "E8" right now - higher if the movie is really good...
     
  9. neo123

    neo123 Forum Resident

    Location:
    Northern Kentucky
    The Mummy should do well with Tom Cruise and Russell Crowe in it.

    I'll probably see every movie on that list except for the kiddie movies (animated ones and Power Rangers,) Transformers and the chick flicks (50 Shades and Beauty and the Beast, etc.)


    I wonder how well Alien: Covenant will do? I see it isn't on the list, which is probably expected based on the type of movie it is.
     
  10. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    The Pirates movies have left me cold after the first couple. To me, they fall into the "bottomless pit of plastic CGI" territory, where out of most that you see, nothing is real. (And nothing to get hung about.)

    I think the first film was a welcome surprise and did a very good job. But after that, it's all wretched excess. How they're gonna get Orlando Bloom -- who I think was lured back after being in quite a few bombs in the last 5-6 years -- back into the story line, I'll never know.
     
  11. MikaelaArsenault

    MikaelaArsenault Forum Resident

    Location:
    New Hampshire
    None of those movies look very interesting to me at all.
     
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  12. The Hud

    The Hud Seventh Hud of a Seventh Hud

    Kong: Skull Island is the movie I am most looking forward to.
     
  13. Mirrorblade.1

    Mirrorblade.1 Forum Resident

    Jeepers Creepers 3 well do good.
     
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  14. Jrr

    Jrr Forum Resident

    Couldn't agree more about Pirates. I loved the first one, I was able to sit through the second okay but never saw it again, and I remember being literally bored at the theater warching the third one, so I was out after that. I don't understand it's continued popularity, so clearly I'm in the minority and not the demographic they shoot for.
     
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  15. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Forum Resident

    I will see the following at the theatre

    War for the Planet of the Apes (more CG monkeys)
    Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (Marvel superhero/sci-fi sequel)
    Star Wars: Episode VIII

    that's it for that list.

     
  16. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Forum Resident

    HIT - Big HIT.

     
  17. Grand_Ennui

    Grand_Ennui Forum Resident

    Location:
    WI
    I seen one of them and literally fell asleep in the theater.. Granted, I *was* tired even before going to the movies, but the film was a snoozer... It just dragged on...

    Johnny Depp should be glad they decided to keep making those films (even though I believe they were originally only going to do a trilogy), because it seems they're the only thing keeping his name alive at the box-office...
     
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  18. ssmith3046

    ssmith3046 Forum Resident

    I'm always ready for a Christopher Nolan movie.
     
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  19. marcel

    marcel Alea Iacta Est

    Location:
    Italy
    he's safe for the next few years, thanks to the new films written by J.K. Rowling
     
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  20. PhilBorder

    PhilBorder Forum Resident

    Location:
    Sheboygan, WI
    there's always surprises, and/or some indie films that appear. Who would have thought something like "Hunt for the Wilder People" would materialize?

    Looks like the studios are sort of doubling down on franchises and my general sense is they are running their course. Which of course we've heard before. But, for instance, now that the Avengers have saved the earth again and fought among themselves... what's left?
     
  21. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits and Abbie: Best Dogs Ever

    Location:
    Alexandria VA
    Not sure what that movie has to do with this thread. Yes, there are lots and lots of indie movies that come out every year, but this thread's about box office hits/bombs.

    "Hunt" made $5 million in the US - not bad for an obscure flick from New Zealand, but not exactly box office gold... :shrug:
     
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  22. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    I think there's another thread elsewhere about Marvel's plans for the next 10 years.

    As to small indies: one of the films I look forward to seeing the most is La La Land, which is discussed in another thread. That's gotten rave reviews and won several festival awards, and I hope it lives up to the hype. Once in awhile, there's a small indie that just blows past everything and far exceeds expectations, like The Artist.
     
  23. malcolm reynolds

    malcolm reynolds Forum Resident

    Location:
    Oklahoma
    Star Wars will probably be the only one that get my butt in a theater seat. Guardians Of The Galaxy 2 and Beauty and the Beast will probably be rentals/purchases.
     
  24. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Forum Resident

    Quoting myself here but......from director James Gunn



    James Gunn
    5 hrs ·
    Facebook Mentions
    ·
    Holy crap! With 81 million views in its first 24 hours, the Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 Teaser Trailer is the SECOND BIGGEST TEASER TRAILER EVER (after Beauty and the Beast), and the biggest Marvel Studios Teaser ever! No kidding - I'm, like, floored. Thank all of you so very much for watching it (more than once), and sharing it, and welcoming Baby Groot and Mantis with open arms. Thanks for all your amazing reactions (including your reaction videos, which Jennifer Holland and I stayed up until the wee hours of the morning watching the other night). Thanks to the wonderful folks at CCXP in Brazil where we debuted the trailer. And finally (yes, I know, it's starting to become like I'm accepting an award - sorry BUT) HUGE THANKS to the smart and kind marketing folks at Marvel and Disney who put up with all my eccentricities during the teaser editing process. Honestly. You guys can't imagine what they deal with. I'm a maniac. Now they're gonna have to deal with it again as we prep the FULL TRAILER... [​IMG]

    And even more so as we finish up the MOVIE... [​IMG][​IMG][​IMG]

    Oh - and the icing on the cake - "Fox on the Run" by Sweet, the song used in the teaser, rose to number one on the iTunes Rock Chart!

    Did I mention we debuted on a Saturday when you're NEVER EVER supposed to debut anything?

    HAVE A GREAT WEEK and feel free to post your favorite #GotGVol2Teaser memes below! So many good ones.
     
  25. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    Everybody loves the Raccoon! I loved the trailer, love "Fox on the Run," and I think the movie can't miss.
    [​IMG]
     

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