Predicting the Movie Hits and Bombs of 2017

I saw the trailer weeks ago on TV and it looked really bad. In some ways, CGI hasn't come very far since the Fifth element.
Tarzan was a dissaster, worst CGI on a big movie since Scorpion King?

 

As a World War II buff, and as someone who still likes to "go to the movies," my wife and I saw this on July 4th. She really liked it; I was more subdued. It is kind of corny, in bad ways. The first thing that jarred me is that no one, and I mean no one, spoke German! All these Germans spoke "European English" with a flare. It felt so inauthentic, and betrayed the production values. (I would have happily read English subtitles to all German dialogue). Secondly, if you were sending a spy, would it be a great deal to send a female to serve as house servant -- that is drop dead gorgeous, so as not to attract attention to yourself? Check Lily James. Thirdly, how about a German officer who was hand picked for the job, but actually one of the few who had misgivings about the "vater land," enough to switch sides? Check Jai Courtney's character.

BTW, I do like Christopher Plummer, in almost anything. Check here too.

 

Isn't The Emoji Movie coming out later on this month?

 

See, what worries me about Valerian is what I've dubbed "The John Carter effect"; a work gets negatively compared to the media it inspired (for Valerian's case, Star Wars, Guardians of the Galaxy, even and especially The Fifth Element)

 

And that too shall pass ... thank you, I'm here all week and I do take requests.

 

I'm not going to see it. But I won't be happy if it's at the drive in or theaters this summer when I'm up in Maine for vacation.

Most likely it's going to be though.

 

Early tracking estimate on Dunkirk is $40 million domestic opening = not good.

Christopher Nolan’s ‘Dunkirk’ Eyes $40 Million in Early Box Office Tracking
“Dunkirk” isn’t landing at the box office for another few weekends, but according to early industry tracking, it could shoot up to $40 million.
The World War II movie, from Warner Bros. and director Christopher Nolan’s own Syncopy Inc., looks to land in the $30 million to $40 million range if estimates are accurate. Those numbers come from outside industry tracking, not Warner Bros.

Even $40 million would be Nolan’s lowest opening in wide release since “The Prestige” made $14.8 million in 2006. That said, his modern slate has concentrated heavily on the reliably bankable Caped Crusader — in 2008, “Batman: The Dark Knight” opened to $158.4 million, and four years later “The Dark Knight Rises” made even more, $160.9 million. Nolan’s original works have also done well. “Interstellar” opened low domestically, for its price tag, with $47.5 million, but was boosted by a huge take overseas. “Inception” made $62.8 million in its first weekend. Still, unlike “Dunkirk,” “Interstellar” and “Inception” had major movie stars in top billing.

 

It's clearly a tip of the hat/homage. They know some fans will recognize the "throwback" art - it's not like they think they're fooling anyone...

 

Who needs "stories" anymore. Just greenlight the Play-dough movie. Or the Dunkin' Donuts epic. And just skip ahead to the 5 or 6th sequel: "Hot Wheels 6: Atomic Torque"

 

I'm a sucker for well made WWII movies, and I can't imagine Nolan's Dunkirk being bad. It's an amazing story, one that isn't well-known outside of Europe, and I think the box office will reflect that. Nolan gets to make these kinds of movies because he is an auteur who makes bank, and if I can see it in 65mm I'm damn well going to try. It's actually kind of ballsy that they're putting this out in the middle of summer, but the grown ups have to have an alternative to emojis. I think the only reason it is coming out now is because they have the best chance to make their money back during the busy season. It will be an uphill battle: what to see if you're a teenager? Hmmm, Dunkirk or War For The Planet Of The Apes? That's a toughie.

 

Why don't they just make a WWII movie that stars chimps and cover all the bases?

 

They are technically both war movies.

 

Lance Link, Secret Soldier!

 

Sorry, it's too late - unless I see apes storm the beaches at Normandy, I'll never be happy now!

 

The Dunkin Donut film sounds interesting. I think you're on to something.

 

I want to see epic movies based around household cleaning products. Say, The Mr Clean Movie: To Squeeze the Charmin.

 

Yeah, I recognized it instantly a year ago, since on Dec. 7th 1979 I was there for opening night of Star Trek The Motion Picture.

 

I'm looking forward to seeing Nolan's Drunk Kirk - looks epic.

Seriously, as log as it is not a mind****, and it truly is 3-"straight" stories going at once as described, I'm all-in to see this in 70mm.

Jeff

 

Looking at what *does* do well at the box office right now, I'd say a two-hour historical WWII drama with few to no recognizable actors in it still making $40 million opening weekend would be pretty impressive.

I have no idea what the budget is, but I've often argued that the budget has nothing to do with how *popular* a movie is. That is, a film with a $200 million budget where $50 million worth of tickets were sold is still *more popular* than a film that cost $1 million where $10 million worth of tickets were sold.

If "Dunkirk" does end up losing money, it's worth noting that according to the trades, Nolan was paid *$20 million* to direct it, in addition to 20% of the gross. (Not sure if it's actually $20 mil *against* 20% of the gross).

 

see "Monuments Men"

 

I hardly ever go to the cinema, much prefer to watch things in my home theater, but I may make an exception for Dunkirk if its playing at a convenient time. Looks really interesting.

 

I have to admit, Tarzan was not very good. What was surprisingly good was Jungle Book, which made a ton of money and garnered a bunch of technical awards (and critical acclaim), so it proves this kind of movie can be done.

 

I was at a rummage sale and a woman beside me at the book stall was looking at the book the movie was based upon. She wondered out loud if she should buy it. I commented that it was a great book. She stated that she had seen and loved the movie, but had never read the book. She went on and on and on about how great the movie was. I had seen the movie and didn't think much of it, although I didn't say that since this woman obviously loved it so. I thought it was a bit strange that a middle woman loved a war film. Then it dawned on me. I wanted to warn her, but didn't, that George Clooney wasn't in the book.

 

IIRC, it's being shown at IMAX theatres in 70 mm.

EXPERIENCE DUNKIRK IN IMAX 70MM FILM AND IMAX WITH LASER

The publicity so far has made a big deal about how good the HD 2D cameras are that were used.

 

Vidiot, Is there an update of the "Movie hits and bombs" list? I was wondering about the scale of perhaps 1-10 for them. I curious to see how they are doing now.