Predicting the Movie Hits and Bombs of 2017

Discussion in 'Visual Arts' started by Vidiot, Dec 3, 2016.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. bamaaudio

    bamaaudio Forum Resident

    Location:
    US
    Not surprised Valerian is bombing. The trailer looked pretty campy and the audience reception for it seemed pretty poor from various times it played during showings around here. Several people were snickering and/or laughing at the trailer, my girl included.
     
    Vidiot likes this.
  2. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    Valerian has turned out to be an even bigger bomb than I had predicted:

    BOOM! That’s the sound of Luc Besson’s “Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets.” US Weekend total is $17 million, not even a multiple of Friday’s $6 million. Costing at least $225 million, “Valerian” is a domestic dud. The only hope for STX Films on the most expensive indie film ever made is people in non English speaking countries not caring about the story or dialogue. This often the case, and dud films– see “The Mummy” — can find audiences who just want the visual flash.

    $225 Million “Valerian” Crashes with $17Mil Weekend, Biggest Loss for Most Expensive Indie Film
     
  3. benjaminhuf

    benjaminhuf Forum Resident

    Another box office story this summer seems to be The Box Office Decline of the Planet of the Apes...

    2011's Rise of the Planet of the Apes earned $482 million worldwide on a production budget of $93 million.

    2014's Dawn of the Planet of the Apes earned $711 million worldwide on a production budget of $170m

    So far 2017's War For the Planet of the Apes has earned $175 million worldwide so far on a production budget of $150 million.

    It's only been out for 10 days, but right now I'm wondering it it'll even get to 400 million. A movie this expensive probably needs to do better than that to break even, since there are publicity and overhead costs of maybe $100m, and the studio only gets about half of the box office gross.

    War For the Planet of the Apes is mostly played out in the US. Just counting the US box office, and adjusting for inflation, War is in 6th place in the 50 year old Apes saga...

    Inflation adjusted Apes bo in US according to box office mojo
    Planet of the Apes 2001 directed by Tim Burton is still #1 at $283m
    Dawn #2 $229m
    original 1968 #3 at $221m
    Rise #4 at $198m
    Beneath from 1970 is a surprising #5 at $109m
    This year's War is #6 at $97m and counting....

    Planet of the Apes Movies at the Box Office - Box Office Mojo
     
    PH416156 and Vidiot like this.
  4. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits, Abbie & Mitzi: Best Dogs Ever

    Location:
    Alexandria VA
    IMDB claims $50 million budget - if true, that means it doesn't have to make big bucks to turn a profit...
     
  5. Olompali

    Olompali Forum Resident

    Much was made the Apes bested Spider Man but Parker has stuck in there...
    Also Pirates hit a global 500M... that was a surprise
     
  6. F_C_FRANKLIN

    F_C_FRANKLIN Forum Resident

    Although the thoughtfully slow pacing of the new Apes film appealed to me and my friends, I can see how it would be a turnoff to newer modern moviegoers that expect a faster paced film.
     
  7. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    That's very true. I know the current trend is to try to really crush down the budgets on these animated films. Dreamworks had 4 or 5 $150 million animated features that crashed and burned, and the new philosophy is to go in the Illumination/Universal direction and make feature cartoons for half that amount, to reduce the risk. But the truth is, the Illumination movies look crappy. They're not even remotely at the same level as Disney or Pixar. Unfortunately, I'd say there's a good chance Disney & Pixar are now putting pressure on their producers to go after that business model.
     
  8. ohnothimagen

    ohnothimagen "Live music is better!"

    Location:
    Canada
    It must be a sign of the Apocalypse or something- @Oatsdad and @Vidiot are actually agreeing on stuff!:p

    Hold me...I'm scared.:laugh:
     
  9. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    Colin's a bright guy -- he understands the difference between arguing facts (like how much money a movie made) and opinion (like whether or not a movie is good). I can respect people even if I don't agree with them, and Colin is always entitled to his opinion. I always maintain there's a huge difference between a movie the public likes, a movie that the critics like, a movie I like, and a movie that makes money. You could make an interesting Venn Diagram on where those things overlap. And there's always movies that are stupid that I still like in spite of their suck value; as one example, I enjoyed Kong: Skull Island, but I'm the last guy who would ever say it made a lot of sense.

    BTW, Skull Island wound up making $568 million on a budget of $185M, so it's a profitable movie by any measure.
     
    Solaris, Oatsdad, Simon A and 4 others like this.
  10. PH416156

    PH416156 Alea Iacta Est

    Location:
    Europe
    I loved the first one. The second was -honestly- excellent but imho a bit boring. This time I didn't even bother...$175M wordwide so far, possibly means that a lot of moviegoers had the same reaction of mine
     
    MikaelaArsenault and benjaminhuf like this.
  11. benjaminhuf

    benjaminhuf Forum Resident

    Here's a series that a decade ago had huge box office, but today seems dead: Ron Howard directing Tom Hanks in the Robert Langdon series (the Da Vinci Code movies). Check out this box office fall off

    The Da Vinci Code from 2006 earned $758 million worldwide on a budget of $125m
    Angels And Demons from 2009 did $486m of biz on a budget of $150m

    And then, for some reason, they stepped away from this series, skipped the one sort-of halfway good novel, The Lost Symbol, and instead...

    Inferno from late 2016 did only $220m worldwide, although Sony apparently wisely reduced the production budget to just $75m, and so maybe it broke even.

    The decline in the US box office is even more striking...

    Da Vinci Code $295m
    Angels and Demons $159
    Inferno $34

    Robert Langdon Movies at the Box Office - Box Office Mojo

    In the words of Dr. Bones McCoy:

     
    Vidiot likes this.
  12. I think the source books took a huge drop in quality after the DaVinci Code. A fact not lost on the movie ticket buying public apparently.
     
    Last edited: Jul 26, 2017
  13. MikaelaArsenault

    MikaelaArsenault Forum Resident

    Location:
    New Hampshire
    US gross.
     
  14. Spaghettiows

    Spaghettiows Forum Resident

    Location:
    Silver Creek, NY
    Yeah, they became very formulaic. I put down the last one in the middle because I pretty much knew where it was going and how it would get there.
     
    MikaelaArsenault likes this.
  15. Yep. The formula got stale quick. The first two books were good reads.
     
    MikaelaArsenault likes this.
  16. soundboy

    soundboy Senior Member


    "The Mummy" is within $10M of crossing over to $400M worldwide.
     
    Vidiot likes this.
  17. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    Yes, it did very well internationally (as you would expect for a Tom Cruise movie), but at $79.4M in America, the domestic gross was very disappointing, and the critical reviews were very poor (16% on Rotten Tomatoes). I think Universal was looking for a much bigger success both critically and economically.
     
    benjaminhuf and soundboy like this.
  18. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits, Abbie & Mitzi: Best Dogs Ever

    Location:
    Alexandria VA
    No, I was asking for your prediction of what the "flop" US and worldwide gross would be for "Emoji Movie".

    Since you think it'll be a "flop", what do you think it'll make at the box office?

    As I mentioned above, it only needs to make about $150 million total to turn a profit...
     
    MikaelaArsenault likes this.
  19. benjaminhuf

    benjaminhuf Forum Resident

    The next Pixar movie is called Coco, and is coming out this November. Trailer below. I'm guessing one of the less successful Pixar movies? Maybe around the Cars 2-3 level....?



    From box office mojo
    Pixar movies Adjusted for Ticket Price Inflation US gross
    Rank Title (click to view) Studio Adjusted Gross Unadjusted Gross Release
    1 Finding Nemo BV $500,840,100 $339,714,978 5/30/03
    2 Finding Dory BV $499,245,400 $486,295,561 6/17/16
    3 Toy Story 3 BV $464,074,600 $415,004,880 6/18/10
    4 Toy Story 2 BV $425,266,700 $245,852,179 11/19/99
    5 Monsters, Inc. BV $400,833,300 $255,873,250 11/2/01
    6 Toy Story BV $389,989,400 $191,796,233 11/22/95
    7 Inside Out BV $383,928,800 $356,461,711 6/19/15
    8 The Incredibles BV $373,646,300 $261,441,092 11/5/04
    9 Up BV $349,143,900 $293,004,164 5/29/09
    10 Cars BV $331,282,100 $244,082,982 6/9/06
    11 A Bug's Life BV $303,464,600 $162,798,565 11/20/98
    12 Monsters University BV $295,151,800 $268,492,764 6/21/13
    13 WALL-E BV $277,110,700 $223,808,164 6/27/08
    14 Ratatouille BV $266,759,000 $206,445,654 6/29/07
    15 Brave BV $266,321,700 $237,283,207 6/22/12
    16 Cars 2 BV $212,871,300 $191,452,396 6/24/11
    17 Cars 3 BV $143,830,600 $144,801,374 6/16/17
    18 The Good Dinosaur BV $125,951,200 $123,087,120 11/25/15
    TOTAL: $6,009,711,600 $4,647,696,274 -
    AVERAGE: $333,872,900 $258,205,349 -
     
    MikaelaArsenault likes this.
  20. benjaminhuf

    benjaminhuf Forum Resident

    I'm a big Spielberg fan, but I'm just not feeling much for this Ready Player One trailer. Anyone else?

     
    MikaelaArsenault likes this.
  21. benjaminhuf

    benjaminhuf Forum Resident

    Now I know it's not a movie, but this Stranger Things 2 trailer looks like an awesome Spielberg movie adaptation of an unknown Stephen King novel....

     
    MikaelaArsenault and eddiel like this.
  22. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    The last few Spielberg films were not that successful, so to me Ready Player One kind of has a sense of desperation with it. Sort of a "hey, kids! I can still make hip movies! I'm not that old!" I dunno... :sigh:

    BTW, here's a fun fact: although Ready Player One is about a digital "virtual world" and has tons and tons of digital VFX, it was all shot on... analogue 35mm Kodak film.
     
  23. Jrr

    Jrr Forum Resident

    Love Pixar but based on the preview I have zero interest. I'm worried ideas are drying up from what I used to think were the most creative force in Hollywood. Too many sequels and unispiring films lately,especially compared to titles like Up and the genious of Inside Out.
     
    benjaminhuf and MikaelaArsenault like this.
  24. Jrr

    Jrr Forum Resident

    He really needs a hit now!
     
    MikaelaArsenault likes this.
  25. MikaelaArsenault

    MikaelaArsenault Forum Resident

    Location:
    New Hampshire
    I think it won't make a lot of money.
     
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page

molar-endocrine