Predicting the Movie Hits and Bombs of 2017

To my surprise, I actually thought the remake worked well. Not as good as the De Palma, but effective in its own right...

 

I have it in the back of my head that there's a new "Stand" in the planning, but that notion's been lodged there for years, so maybe it's stuck in limbo.

If it is, the success of "It" seems likely to kickstart it...

 

i keep seeing ads for Geostorm. wow it looks SO bad

 

Yep. They showed previews for Geostorm before Blade Runner today when I saw it. Geostorm has been pushed back multiple times with multiple rewrites. It will be a typical modern disaster film, overblown with all kinds of stuff. Similar to 2012, Independence Day Resurrection, etc.

I saw an interesting preview for a movie today with Natalie Portman also. It is called Annihilation and comes out in February.

 

I'm a sucker for a disaster movie -good, bad or indifferent- so naturally I'll have to check out Geostorm.

 

As talked about on its own thread, I think we can now predict that Blade Runner 2049 is going to lose money. On a production budget of $150 million, it's earned $100m so far. Since most movies need to earn about triple their production budget to really make a profit, it seems at this point there might be a loss of more than $100 million dollars on this one. In other words no sequel to this sequel. I was mixed about the film, and I think that maybe it's time to let it fade like tears in the rain....

 

And here Looper tries to explain 2049's failure....One point it makes is that the original was a money loser, with a for-the-time big budget of $30 million (about 70 million today). But the sequel is twice as expensive.

 

I think the main problems for Blade Runner 2049 were: 1) it's 2 hours and 43 minutes long; 2) it's rated R; and 3) it cost $155 million. If it had been 2 hours long and cost $100M, they might have had a chance (even with an R rating). When you limit theaters to only 4 shows a day -- which happens with a movie almost 3 hours long -- it immediately cuts 20% of your potential earnings because you lose a showing. And then the R rating also costs a certain percentage of the audience.

Box Office: 'Blade Runner 2049' Is A Bomb Due To Its Budget

Warner Bros. Admits the Audience for ‘Blade Runner 2049’ Was ‘More Narrow Than Expected’

Blade Runner 2049 Was Always Going To Bomb

 

I will see it on dvd.. But the first one bombed but is cult classic..
Maybe this one will be too someday?

 

My guess is it'll eventually turn a profit for the studio on home video and via streaming. But not a large profit.

If it gets an Oscar nod (unlikely) that could be good for millions as well...

 

It's to bad about BR 2049, arguably one of the best sequels I've ever seen, three times now!
As many have stated,It's a visual masterpiece; the reveal was amazing and it puts R1 Lea/Tarkin to shame.
Has cgi software advanced that much since R1,or is it a combination of more money/time spent, or was the particular scene easier to create (I'm still blown away by it !).
I didn't find it long, boring and even that complicated to follow,but have to admit, I'm a fanboy of the original, more specifically the " Directors Cut".

The links provided by Vidiot make perfect sense, but I'm glad they targeted a specific audience, and wish more Sc-Fi blockbuster movies were made like this.
However, a business needs to make money and I'm sure the next one (if there ever is one) will be more like a movie by committee, and not this work of art -- a labor of love by the director and all that were involved.

Slowing the pace down, making a compelling,thought provoking story with amazing visuals, is something the casual movie goer does not want to see... apparently.
Do understand most people grips... hopefully Asia will save it, or at least soften the blow... the outcome looks grim.

 

Blade Runner is a small cult movie nothing more. It's done well on blu-ray and dvd because it looks good and it's sci-fi. But it's not a well liked movie outside of the film nerds. The sequel was doomed to flop

 

As a 'film nerd' (actually more a hard scifi nerd), I'm waiting with great anticipation for the film to be released on home video. From what I've heard, its sounds like it's right up my alley.

 

No, you have to see this on the biggest screen available... It looks incredible !
And it's quite a compelling story,which is the most important part.
I was a skeptic before last week,not anymore.
Either way, whenever or however you see it, I hope you enjoy it !

 

I read an article that stated they had a group dedicated to that scene for about a year.
Part of the process was to use a look a like.
End result was pretty convincing.

 

Blade Runner 2049 seems to be doing better overseas:

‘Blade Runner 2049’ Leads Worldwide Box Office With $44.4 Million

Certainly there's a lot of buzz about it in the UK.

 

Never liked br1 enough to watch all of it through.

 

I wonder what conclusions can be drawn from that disparity.

 

TOP 34 of 2017 as of Oct 21.

2017Rank/AllTime- Rank/ Title/ Studio/ Worldwide/ Domestic / % Overseas / % Year

1 10 Beauty and the Beast (2017) BV $1,263.5 $504.0 39.9% $759.5 60.1% 2017
2 11 The Fate of the Furious Uni. $1,235.8 $225.8 18.3% $1,010.0 81.7% 2017
3 26 Despicable Me 3 Uni. $1,027.1 $263.1 25.6% $764.0 74.4% 2017
4 49 Spider-Man: Homecoming Sony $879.7 $333.6 37.9% $546.1 62.1% 2017
5 55 Wolf Warrior 2 HC $870.3 $2.7 0.3% $867.6 99.7% 2017
6 57 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 BV $863.6 $389.8 45.1% $473.7 54.9% 2017
7 64 Wonder Woman WB $821.6 $412.5 50.2% $409.1 49.8% 2017
8 69 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales BV $794.7 $172.6 21.7% $622.2 78.3% 2017
9 114 It WB (NL) $635.2 $316.7 49.9% $318.5 50.1% 2017
10 126 Logan Fox $616.8 $226.3 36.7% $390.5 63.3% 2017
11 130 Transformers: The Last Knight Par. $605.4 $130.2 21.5% $475.3 78.5% 2017
12 144 Kong: Skull Island WB $566.7 $168.1 29.7% $398.6 70.3% 2017
13 168 Dunkirk WB $523.7 $187.6 35.8% $336.1 64.2% 2017
14 176 The Boss Baby Fox $498.9 $175.0 35.1% $323.9 64.9% 2017
15 184 War for the Planet of the Apes Fox $486.6 $146.7 30.2% $339.9 69.8% 2017
16 247 The Mummy (2017) Uni. $409.1 $80.1 19.6% $329.0 80.4% 2017
17 272 Fifty Shades Darker Uni. $381.0 $114.4 30.0% $266.5 70.0% 2017
18 277 Cars 3 BV $376.8 $152.8 40.5% $224.0 59.5% 2017
19 315 Your Name. FUN $355.3 $5.0 1.4% $350.3 98.6% 2017
20 337 xXx: The Return of Xander Cage Par. $346.1 $44.9 13.0% $301.2 87.0% 2017
21 352 The Great Wall Uni. $334.6 $45.2 13.5% $289.4 86.5% 2017
22 389 Resident Evil: The Final Chapter SGem $312.2 $26.8 8.6% $285.4 91.4% 2017
23 391 The LEGO Batman Movie WB $312.0 $175.8 56.3% $136.2 43.7% 2017
24 412 Annabelle: Creation WB (NL) $301.9 $102.0 33.8% $199.9 66.2% 2017
25 436 Kingsman: The Golden Circle Fox $291.0 $91.6 31.5% $199.5 68.5% 2017
26 458 Split Uni. $278.3 $138.1 49.6% $140.2 50.4% 2017
27 512 Kung Fu Yoga WGUSA $254.2 $363k 0.1% $253.8 99.9% 2017
28 515 Get Out Uni. $253.1 $175.5 69.3% $77.7 30.7% 2017
29 532 Journey to the West: The Demons Strike Back Sony $246.6 $880k 0.4% $245.7 99.6% 2017
30 556 Alien: Covenant Fox $240.7 $74.3 30.9% $166.4 69.1% 2017
31 601 Baby Driver TriS $226.7 $107.8 47.6% $118.9 52.4% 2017
32 605 Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets STX $225.2 $40.5 18.0% $184.7 82.0% 2017
33 693 The Emoji Movie Sony $204.4 $85.5 41.8% $118.9 58.2% 2017
34 708 A Dog's Purpose Uni. $201.0 $64.3 32.0% $136.7 68.0%

 

WB is expecting Justice League to crack a billion dollars at the box office.

 

They wish big...

 

Of course, theaters will give 2049 two screens but that doesn't really change Warner's cut and we'll have to add, say, a 50% markup to cover advertising to that announced budget.

 

Just US or worldwide?

Worldwide $1b is wholly possible - US $1b not a chance!

 

This piece in Forbes makes a good case that Justice League will do about $400 domestic and another $550M overseas, which I think is possible:

'Justice League': The Optimistic Box Office Prediction

 

And here's an interesting new trend: Hollywood is quickly pulling flop movies from screens in order to give the theater owners a chance to run more profitable films instead...

This weekend, for example, Warner Bros. is putting out a white flag on “Blade Runner” after three tough weeks. They’ve cut the number of theaters showing Denis Villeneuve’s beautiful film by 855. So far, “Blade Runner” has made just $66 million. Audiences have not clamored to it. And now, week by week, Warners will quietly take it away.

Warner’s isn’t alone. Universal is pulling Tom Cruise’s “American Made” from 539 locations after a month in release. The Doug Liman directed thriller has made just $43 million. Good reviews haven’t helped push Cruise fans to theaters. One problem was lack of promotion since Cruise wasn’t available. Also, audiences may have just soured on him after “The Mummy” and other flops. With both studios, it wasn’t for lack of trying.

The biggest decease (de-crease, but pun intended here) is for the revived “Flatliners.” With just $16 million in the till, Sony would be better off paying people to see this turkey. They’re retreating from 1,433 theaters this weekend, leaving “Flatliners” to breathe on its own. It will be completely dead by Sunday.

Hollywood Ending: Big Studios Cutting Losses This Weekend, Pulling Flops From Theaters Earlier Than Usual

I pegged all three of these as most likely not doing well months ago, just on the basis of the trailer. Blade Runner fell into the "I hope it does well, but I suspect they'll be lucky to break even" category.