Predicting the Movie Hits and Bombs of 2017

Adam Warlock not in IMDb Infinity Wars credit list.

 

I now have MoviePass, which most of you have probably heard of. Since that's paying for my movies, I'm now going to the theater about twice a week, rather than once or twice a month. Four good movies I've seen in the past month are in a sense similar in that they are all well-made, well-reviewed, modestly budgeted films, all based on real stories, that have all been weak at the box office. I liked all of them, but I guess their performance reveals why studios are sometimes reluctant to make movies like these....

Battle of the Sexes, the story of Billy Jean King's epic tennis game with Bobby Riggs, starring Emma Stone and Steve Carell, had a production budget of $25 million, but has only grossed $14 m so far.

Professor Marston and the Wonder Women is the sometimes strange story of the people behind the Wonder Woman character. Well directed by Angela Robinson, and with good performances all around. Looks like maybe a c. $15m film?? Can't find any info there, but so far it's made less than $2 million.

Marshall, a well-made movie about one of Thurgood Marshall's early cases, with fine performances from Chadwick Boseman and Josh Gad. Modestly budgeted at only $12 million, so far it's made about $6m.

Only the Brave, with strong performances from Josh Brolin and others, tells the story of the Granite Mountain Hotshots. This one just opened last Friday, and so there's still time, but so far it's grossed less than $10 million on a c. $38 million dollar production budget.

 

And here are some more examples of movies based on real stories that have not done well at the box office. I liked these too, but the reviews were more mixed....

Rebel in the Rye, the story of J.D. Sallinger and his landmark novel Catcher in the Rye. If you've ever wondered why that book is the way it is, and why the author never wrote another one, this movie tells that story in a compelling way. Good performances by Nicholas Hoult, Keven Spacey, Sarah Paulson, etc. I don't see how this period movie could have been made for less than $15 million or so. But so far it's made less than $1 million back.

Detroit is the searing film about riots and police brutality in 1967, directed by Kathryn Bigelow. This $34 million-dollar movie (and it's almost all up there on the screen imho) has only brought in $21m.

 

I saw "2049" opening Saturday at an IMAX screen - also maybe 20 people there. Sure, it was the earliest showing, but still, that's pretty bad!

 

He has a conversation with Thor in a post (or mid)-credits scene.

 

The top 12 are all remakes/sequels/legacy characters.

 

50 Shades Darker is top 20?? WTF............

 

Suburbicon looks over the top ridiculous. i predict bombs away.

 

The early reviews on Thor have been very good so far. I think the real question mark is Justice League, which opens a week later. Is it possible to open two $200 million superhero movies within a week of each other and have both of them succeed? I'm very doubtful this can work.

The early word is not good.

 

Thanks - obviously I forgot about that!

I wouldn't count that as a "crossover guest" since it's a credits thing. It's not like Thor plays a role in the story - unlike Iron Man in "Spidey" or Falcon in "Ant Man" or everyone in the world in "Civil War"!

 

Quoting myself here. Just letting you to know I did finally see Geostorm today with the family member who still wanted to see it despite the bad reviews. I am taking it off my list of worst movie of the year. Valerian And The City Of A Thousand Planets is definitely the worst, followed closely by Transformers: The Last Knight.

Geostorm does indeed have the same feel as Independence Day (both movies,) 2012 and Day After Tomorrow because of the believability factor and the race to save the world scenario. There is even a countdown clock to let the audience know how close they come to saving the world. LOL. In that sense, if you saw one disaster movie, you've seen them all. It's a typical modern disaster movie, but with politics thrown into the mix to make it feel more relevant, I guess. It was predictable on what would happen (just didn't know how, exactly) and who the bad guy was. I was able to predict who the bad guy was early on in the movie even though it wasn't revealed until towards the end. Since this movie had multiple rewrites and turnover in production crews, I wonder how bad it originally was going to be if the rewrites weren't made. Anyway, it's a typical Gerard Butler movie. I think he plays the same guy in every movie, it seems. The movie also has Andy Garcia (the President) and Ed Harris (the Secretary of State) in supporting roles. At the end of the movie, I even said to the person I was watching it with if the hero would be chomping on a cigar after saving the world. LOL. Like in Independence Day when Will Smith and Jeff Goldblum did after planting the virus that allowed the Alien mothership to be blown up. (By the way, in this movie, the scenario also involves a computer virus, but in reverse.)

Geostorm is definitely way better than Independence Day: Resurgence (I thought that sucked) and 2012, but I still like the original Independence Day and Day After Tomorrow better than Geostorm. Geostorm wasn't a great or even a good film, but it didn't suck and served its purpose of entertaining. If any of you decide to go see Geostorm, check your brain at the door. If you don't, you will be rolling your eyes at how unbelievable it is regarding the controlling of the weather with man-made technology.

 

Saw "Madea 2"[Lionsgate, aka Lio or LGF] and it's a sequel I've enjoyed three times...

 

Early tracking for Justice League is looking like $110-120 Million for opening weekend:

'Justice League' On Pace for a Super $120 Million Opening Weekend

 

And Thor is looking like it'll make at least $100 million the first weekend, which is not bad at all:

‘Thor: Ragnarok’ Tracking for $100 Million-Plus Opening in North America

 

And Suburbicon has turned into "bombs away" for Matt Damon and George Clooney...

Box office bomb: George Clooney's 'Suburbicon' is one of Paramount's biggest flops of all time

Box Office: Matt Damon And George Clooney's 'Suburbicon' Bombs With $1M Friday

George Clooney's 'Suburbicon' Bombs at Box Office, Becomes One of Paramount's Biggest Flops

 

"Not bad"? I'm old enough to remember when $100 million in one weekend was enormous news!

 

Paramount not having a good year - have they had a single legit hit in the US?

They started the year with an expensive flop via "Monster Trucks" and their big tentpoles like "Ghost in the Shell" and "Transformers" failed to do well.

"Suburbicon" comes hot on the heels of "Mother!", another Paramount flop that starred a big star...

 

That title is pure click-bait. The movie may have flopped, but given it only cost $25m to make, I don't think it amounts to a hill of beans, financially (at least for this film in isolation).

 

Isn't Paramount in the process of showing their entire management team the door?

I suspect the Chinese will end up buying out Paramount.

 

I loved "Thor: The Dark World." Puzzled that it gets so much derision.

 

When ticket prices were a third of what they are now?

 

Hey, I don't write the headlines -- I'm just pointing out what the news sources are saying. Bear in mind that advertising and distribution often costs much more than the film itself. I would bet they spent well in excess of $25M trying to get this movie released on top of the $25M it cost to make. Based on that, I would bet it would have to make at least $50M just to barely break even. If they make less than $3M the first week, I'd say that's pretty much a disaster by any definition.

Paramount is definitely in a state of flux at the moment.

 

Yes of course and I didn't mean to imply that it was somehow your fault - the criticism was directed at the originating site/link, because even with added marketing costs etc, it's still a small film compared to something that costs $150 million+ and marketing. My point was that in terms of money 'lost' in the absolute sense, it's not that big a financial disaster. By analogy, I'd rather lose $10 than a $100!