Predicting the Movie Hits and Bombs of 2017

Discussion in 'Visual Arts' started by Vidiot, Dec 3, 2016.

  1. NickCarraway

    NickCarraway Forum Resident

    Location:
    Gastonia, NC
    17 are based on existing material (sequel/remake/reboot).
    2 new stories are animated.
    The one "new" live action is a war movie.
     
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  2. benjaminhuf

    benjaminhuf Forum Resident

    One of my favorite movies of 2017 was The Man Who Invented Christmas. Strong screenplay, fine performances by Dan Stevens, Christopher Plummer, Jonathan Pryce, and Miriam Margolyes, wonderful production design, well directed and edited. Amusing, emotional, thought-provoking, and just flat out a great time at the movies for me. I don't see how this movie could have cost less than c. $25 million dollars or so. And yet....

    The Man Who Invented Christmas
    Domestic Total as of Dec. 24, 2017: $5,388,476 (Estimate)
    Distributor: Bleecker Street Release Date: November 22, 2017
    Genre: Drama Runtime: 1 hrs. 44 min.
    MPAA Rating: PG Production Budget: N/A
     
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  3. benjaminhuf

    benjaminhuf Forum Resident

    Another very strong movie imho that just didn't do well....

    Goodbye Christopher Robin
    Domestic Total Gross: $1,735,251
    Distributor: Fox Searchlight Release Date: October 13, 2017
    Genre: Drama Runtime: 1 hrs. 47 min.
    MPAA Rating: PG Production Budget: N/A
     
  4. benjaminhuf

    benjaminhuf Forum Resident

    I've not seen Darkest Hour yet, but I'm looking forward to it. This one has only been in wide release for a short time, and it seems to be doing pretty well relative to its modest production budget. My guess is that it'll eventually make it to c. $50 million or so worldwide...

    Darkest Hour
    Domestic Total as of Dec. 27, 2017:$11,267,232
    Distributor: Focus Features Release Date: November 22, 2017
    Genre: Drama Runtime: 2 hrs. 5 min.
    MPAA Rating: PG-13 Production Budget: N/A
     
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  5. benjaminhuf

    benjaminhuf Forum Resident

    I really liked Coco, but compared to its c. $175 million dollar production cost + c. $100 million dollar promotion costs, it's looking more or less like it broke even. It grossed $500m, but Disney only actually gets about half that. But I'm sure home video etc. will make it profitable....

    Coco
    Domestic Total as of Dec. 27, 2017:$169,704,712
    Distributor: Buena Vista Release Date: November 22, 2017
    Genre: Animation Runtime: 1 hrs. 49 min.
    MPAA Rating: PG Production Budget:
    Total Lifetime Grosses
    Domestic: $169,704,712 33.8%
    + Foreign: $332,700,000 66.2%
    = Worldwide: $502,404,712
     
    Last edited: Dec 28, 2017
  6. benjaminhuf

    benjaminhuf Forum Resident

    This one did quite well. My wife and I liked it a lot.
    Victoria and Abdul
    Domestic Total as of Dec. 27, 2017: $22,214,930
    Distributor: Focus Features Release Date: September 22, 2017
    Genre: Drama Runtime: 1 hrs. 52 min.
    MPAA Rating: PG-13 Production Budget
    Total Lifetime Grosses
    Domestic: $22,214,930 34.3%
    + Foreign: $42,600,000 65.7%
    = Worldwide: $64,814,930
     
  7. benjaminhuf

    benjaminhuf Forum Resident

    Wow, talk about a return on the investment. On a budget of less than $5 million (it looked like 4 times that to me) this solid and amusing B-horror movie grossed $115 million.

    Happy Death Day
    Domestic Total Gross: $55,683,845
    Distributor: Universal Release Date: October 13, 2017
    Genre: Horror Runtime: 1 hrs. 36 min.
    MPAA Rating: PG-13 Production Budget: $4.8 million
    Total Lifetime Grosses
    Domestic: $55,683,845 48.5%
    + Foreign: $59,200,000 51.5%
    = Worldwide: $114,883,845
     
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  8. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    For those who had been expecting Star Wars: The Last Jedi to fail, analysts are now predicting it could likely wind up with $1.6 billion worldwide, and they have an explanation as to why the domestic box office fell 69% this past weekend:

    If box-office pundits are right, Disney's and Lucasfilms' Star Wars: The Last Jedi will ultimately boast one of the top worldwide grosses of all time with as much as $1.6 billion in global ticket sales after earning well north of $745.5 million through Christmas Day. Its lifetime run is expected to include $750 million to $800 million in North American ticket sales. That means it could be the second-biggest domestic title of all time behind its predecessor, Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($936.7 million). Currently, Avatar ($760.5 million) and Titanic ($659.4) rank No. 2 and No. 3, not accounting for inflation.

    'Star Wars: The Last Jedi' Box-Office Fatigue? Don't Be So Sure
     
  9. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Forum Resident

    Rotten Tomatoes annual list of "certified fresh" movies that meet the following criteria.

    In 2017, over 170 movies were Certified Fresh. For movies that went wide (at least 600 theaters), that means it hit at least 75% on the Tomatometer after 80 reviews, along with 5 from Top Critics. For movies that stayed in limited, the barrier was 40 reviews. How many of these have you seen?

    2017: The Year in Certified Fresh Movies << Rotten Tomatoes – Movie and TV News
     
  10. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits and Abbie: Best Dogs Ever

    Location:
    Alexandria VA
    Oh - you might be right! I may have totally read that one wrong - thanks!
     
  11. shokhead

    shokhead Forum Resident

    Location:
    CA
    Some of those films have been killed on this forum.
     
  12. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Forum Resident

    Which goes to show you can't please everyone, as an example The Last Jedi is the current exhibit #1. I use it as a general guide knowing full well that a lot of those movies have zero appeal to me personally.
     
  13. shokhead

    shokhead Forum Resident

    Location:
    CA
    :agree:
     
  14. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    And for my last post of the year (at least in this thread), Last Jedi has hit a billion dollars worldwide in only a couple of weeks, and is on track to be one of the most commercially-successful films ever made:

    ‘Star Wars: The Last Jedi’ Crosses $1B WW; ‘Jumanji’ At $323M – International Box Office

    I don't think it's necessarily a great movie, but I would rather see a film like this become successful than, say, a Transformers or Fast & Furious movie.

    I'm disappointed that The Greatest Showman turned out to be a dud -- I expected that to do a lot better.
     
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  15. Jrr

    Jrr Forum Resident

    I'm sorry to hear Greatest Showman did not do well. It's an absolutely wonderful film, but it is a musical so right there you are chopping an awful lot of movie goers. Still, the story is great and it was so well done. I LOVE Star Wars. I did not think TLJ was really that good...it was pretty spotty for me personally. I enjoyed Showman so much more.
     
  16. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits and Abbie: Best Dogs Ever

    Location:
    Alexandria VA
    I'm surprised it's done as well as it has - a musical about the circus? Not exactly box office gold!
     
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  17. Jrr

    Jrr Forum Resident

    And that's likely the problem. If that is how they are promoting it, and that's what people think it is on the surface, no wonder it flopped. The way you describe it makes it sound pretty awful. And that's pretty much how my son in law described it to me when we were figuring out what to go see as a family. I had about zero interest in seeing it based on his brief description which mirrors yours. But him and my daughter really wanted to see it so off we went. It was fabulous. Sure, it centered around his circus ambitions but it was much more than that. He wanted to start promoting other things to gain the respect of the upper class, who saw him as nothing more than someone that was exploiting people that were exploitable. You end up caring about the performers, and then the new act he started promoting later (don't want to spoil anything, but the new act has nothing to do with the circus). You end up caring about him and his supportive wife, who he knew since he was a little boy. There is a lot going on, not just his circus. It's really a shame they apparently completely failed to figure out how to promote it properly. And probably why good movies like this just don't get made. A lot of effort was clearly put into making it, and the music is fantastic...and I'm not a big fan of musicals...I like very few of them. I predict this will find a big audience later when it's streamed. I feel really bad for everyone who worked so hard on this. But, many great movies fall by the wayside. They should not have put it out while Jedi was released. Hmm...a circus movie or Jedi? The irony is I liked Greatest Show much more than Jedi, and I am a huge Star Wars fan.

    Edit...I just read it opened very poorly, and jumped 76% this week setting a record for biggest jump from a first week. Obviously word of mouth is getting out! Good for them.
     
    Last edited: Jan 1, 2018
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  18. Jrr

    Jrr Forum Resident

    Vidiot, did you see Showman and if so, what did you think? Am I going overboard with my enthusiasm for how good it was? My whole family thoroughly enjoyed it. As I just added to my post above, Forbes is reporting it shot up tremendously this past week and set a record for biggest jump for a holdover movie in week two.
     
    Last edited: Jan 1, 2018
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  19. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    No, haven't had time yet, but it's on the list. I liked the trailers quite a bit, but the reviews were not great.
     
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  20. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits and Abbie: Best Dogs Ever

    Location:
    Alexandria VA
    I'm sure "Showman" benefited from Christmas week. It's a movie "the whole family can see", and that's a big deal this time of year.

    I'm confused about the "big jump", though.

    On Boxofficemojo, they state it made $15,270,000 in its second weekend, and they claim this was an increase of 73%.

    Awesome!

    Except they state it made $14,410,116 in its opening weekend.

    So it did a little better in its second weekend than its first, but I'm unclear where the 73% jump comes from! :confused:
     
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  21. Glenpwood

    Glenpwood Senior Member

    Showman is a very entertaining flick but the trailers they showed at the theatre in the months leading up to its release seemed to want to conceal it was a musical. I think the PTB wanted to try and rope in Jackman's Wolverine male audience by downplaying the singing/dancing aspect of it. Also, they threw out most of the actual facts about Barnum's life which seems to be the point most critics are hung up on in the reviews I've seen. Then again, had they stuck to those details it wouldn't be the feel good film it is...
     
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  22. Ron Stone

    Ron Stone Offending Member

    Location:
    Deep Maryland
    Decimal point dropped?
     
  23. Jrr

    Jrr Forum Resident

    Well, maybe I like it more than most. It's encouraging to see the jump in revenues though. But Oatsdad may be right....maybe it was smart for it to come out when it did despite my thinking it was wrong timing, as it is a great family film. I hope you get to see it in a theater...it has great visuals and sound.
     
  24. Jrr

    Jrr Forum Resident

    I have to admit, had I seen a trailer that showed a lot of dancing and music, I never would have been interested in seeing it. So, maybe they marketed it correctly after all. Anyway, I wish it good luck and hope some of you will be able to see it. However, if you don't like musicals you might want to pass. About half music, half dialogue...but you might be able to overlook the musical aspects with all the dialogue.
     
    Glenpwood likes this.
  25. Rosskolnikov

    Rosskolnikov Designated Cloud Yeller

    Every one of those movies was utter and complete awfulness. Not only bad art and poor story-writing, but a negative force in our culture.
     

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