Predicting the Movie Hits and Bombs of 2018

Discussion in 'Visual Arts' started by Vidiot, Dec 17, 2017.

  1. Carl Swanson

    Carl Swanson Resident blabbermouth

    Well, I've been in a couple of theaters in the last 15 years, and I don't miss it. These days, that "excitement" consists largely of horribly over-amped sound, necessary to rise above the jabbering and other distractions of clueless people who don't know how to behave out of doors.
     
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  2. metal134

    metal134 Forum Resident

    Location:
    Canton, OH, USA
    Seems we’ve had completely different experiences.
     
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  3. Carl Swanson

    Carl Swanson Resident blabbermouth

    Par for the course for people. Disclaimer: I've gone only to neighborhood theaters recently, not upscale cinemas or art houses.
     
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  4. Danby Delight

    Danby Delight Forum Resident

    Location:
    Boston
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  5. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    It's doing fantastic. I'm very glad for them -- I know three people who worked on the film tirelessly at the Technicolor facility on the Disney lot in Burbank, and it's a major coup for them. Also the first major superhero blockbuster to be photographed by a woman, and the lead finishing artist (who I know casually) is also a woman. A good movie that does well is great for everybody: it's great for the audience, great for the studio, good for theater owners, and fantastic for the filmmakers and their crew. There is no down side that I can see.
     
  6. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Forum Resident

    missed the mark on that one :D currently sitting at $404 million after 4 days
     
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  7. It's pretty clear that Disney has built an incredibly powerful marketing machine for its most popular movies. I really don't think their big blockbusters are any better than the other studios but they understand how to drive box office revenues better than anyone else at the moment.
     
  8. Mirrorblade.1

    Mirrorblade.1 Forum Resident

    Disney corp sold it's soul to Devil..
     
  9. Mirrorblade.1

    Mirrorblade.1 Forum Resident

    Yes, I was that Joker cool a member knows my identity..
    Anyways.. practicing the metaphysical arts is not always
    on the nose predictions. I was about theLone Ranger and many others.
     
  10. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    Yes, they're doing extremely well:

    Black Panther (2018) - Box Office Mojo

    The analysts are amazed that they had underestimated the box office as much as they did:

    Analysts had expected “Black Panther” to arrive to about $165 million in North American ticket sales, which would itself have been an astounding result for a release outside the holiday and summer corridors. The previous domestic record-holder for a February release was “Deadpool,” which collected an adjusted $159 million over Presidents’ Day weekend in 2016.
    With $218 Million Haul, ‘Black Panther’ Smashes Box Office Records

    I'm only a technician, and I play the game of making movie success/fail predictions like a game of Monopoly: it's just a game and I have no stake in what's happening. It's a hobby at best, and I don't pretend to be an expert. Everybody here can express an opinion, no better or worse than anybody else's opinion. As I said earlier, everybody wins if a good movie does well: the studio wins, the audience wins, the theater owners win, the fans win, and the filmmakers win. There is no down side.

    What is interesting now is that Disney had expected the Han Solo movie to be their big release for the spring, and since Black Panther over-performed, they've got to be a little nervous that maybe this Star Wars spin-off may not do as well as expected. They have an interesting month ahead in May, since Avengers: Infinity Wars opens on May 5th and Han Solo opens on May 25th. Could they manage to have three $1 billion+ action blockbusters in the first half of the year? There's a lot of money tied up in these: the budget for Avengers is said to be approaching $500 million, making it (by far) the most expensive Hollywood film ever made. (Reportedly, Robert Downey got a guarantee of $100M based on 10% of the gross, so he was a huge part of the budget. The other cast members' salaries combined came close to $100M, and the rest of it was production costs.)

    UK Independent: Avengers: Infinity War could be the most expensive film ever made
     
    Last edited: Feb 19, 2018
  11. Luke The Drifter

    Luke The Drifter Forum Resident

    Location:
    United States
    Black Panther (saw it last night) is a fine film, which is better than some MCU films and not as good as others.

    So why is this one raking in the cash?
     
  12. Word on Solo hasn't been so good. I will be curious to see how it does. I'm glad Black Panther is performing well. There's been a gap for a long time when it came to films that could appeal to African Americans AND also reach to a general audience as well. Perhaps this will spur further films for development, perhaps not but it does break many of the rules about a film with a black ensemble and members of the team behind the camera. It's not about race of course but, in a sense, it is at least when it comes to corporate suits.
     
  13. Danby Delight

    Danby Delight Forum Resident

    Location:
    Boston
    Did you happen to take a look at the demographic breakdown of the audience around you?

    Give an under-served demographic the movie they've been waiting for, it's not surprising that they'll rush out to see it.
     
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  14. Standoffish

    Standoffish Don't you dare call me an ostrich!

    Well, I'm one for three so far (hey, that's a good average in baseball!). I predicted Black Panther would be a hit, but it's looking to be a monster. Proud Mary was a flop, while I thought it might be a sleeper hit.

    I got Maze Runner: The Death Cure right, though! :pineapple:
     
  15. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
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  16. The Hermit

    The Hermit Wavin' that magick glowstick since 1976

    Firstly, the Marvel brand in and of itself is by now a cast-iron guarantee of quality for audiences... so even obscure titles like Guardians of the Galaxy score big bank at the box-office on opening weekends... the Marvel name is a colossus right now so the audience for any new MCU installment is already huge going in.

    Secondly, virtually the entire black community has come out in droves for Black Panther, and that isn't to be underestimated either... a lot still went to see Marvel films before, but this one is very special to them (for obvious reasons!) and they're going crazy for it!!!

    Taken together, that's a marketing department's dream... and when you factor in the almost-universal stellar reviews (many of which I suspect are politically motivated even if the reviewer genuinely loved the film itself, and that's all I'll say on that subject!), it's no surprise it's a film that has unexpectedly caught a cultural wave and is riding it for all it's worth...

    You have to give Marvel credit; what they've done is both staggering and unprecedented in filmed entertainment... and they seem to score every time (not always at the same level but there hasn't been an outright turkey or trainwreck as yet, and that is astounding, considering how many movies have been made and how connected the MCU is)... whatever you feel about comic-book movies in general, Kevin Feige and the Marvel team are just killing it right now!!!

    It can't last though... not at this level... nothing ever does.
     
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  17. Jim B.

    Jim B. Forum Resident

    Location:
    UK
    No, that's wrong. The reason people will go out and see nearly any Marvel film now is that the quality has been so high and they know they won't be disappointed. They constantly produce genre work of a very high standard. They can afford to hire the best talent as well which helps.

    I mean the DC films are generally poor to average (apart from WW), some are awful. People are wise to this now.

    The Universal 'Dark Universe' which was supposed to be huge was killed by how awful The Mummy was.

    Transformers makes money somehow but they are dreadful.

    With Marvel you can guarantee at the very least a good quality fun action film that you won't feel you wasted your money on, that's like their base bottom line, and then most on top of that reach some great heights which reward multiple viewings. Some are very very good.
     
  18. Jim B.

    Jim B. Forum Resident

    Location:
    UK
    Covers two big demographics.

    It's a game changer that will have some pretty big repercussions in terms of the people cast and stories told in mainstream Hollywood (long overdue).
     
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  19. The Panda

    The Panda Forum Mutant

    Location:
    Marple, PA, USA
    The free publicity BP is getting from the media is even greater (IMO) than any of the recent Star Wars movies. It's being hailed as a cultural phenomenon (whether or not you agree with the statement), and I bet the publicity will be the wind under the sails for another two weeks.
     
  20. Luke The Drifter

    Luke The Drifter Forum Resident

    Location:
    United States
    But is a lot of it marketing skill? The Marvel films are universal in nature. They even have strong black characters. Falcon is great. So is Heimdall. They had a black villain in Dr. Strange. War Machine is not as cool, but is another significant character. Spider-Man's love interest is black. On an on it goes. And some of these characters were white in the comics and turned black in the films. Now I get that this one adds the African culture, and primarily black cast and director, but still. It is not like Marvel was white washed.

    So I wonder how much of it was skillful marketing.

    I also agree with Hermit on reviews. It is a fine film, but not 97% Rotten Tomatoes good. That is higher than The Empire Strikes Back, The Godfather: Part II, and is tied with The Godfather!
     
  21. mBen989

    mBen989 Forum Resident

    Location:
    Scranton, PA
    Two weeks? Try a month, at least.
     
  22. John Moschella

    John Moschella Forum Resident

    Location:
    Christiansburg, VA
    You know, you are completely correct! Marvel is a money making machine.

    Personally I find the films incredibly boring and repetitive, but the movie going public loves them.
     
  23. PhilBorder

    PhilBorder Forum Resident

    Location:
    Sheboygan, WI
    They haven't seemed to get Hulk quite right, though I'm in the minority in actually liking Ang Lee's first attempt. The character seems like a slightly awkward guest star in the Avenger movies, both Hulk and Bruce Banner. (those his take down of Loki made up for a lot!).

    Ironically I think the most interesting character by far in the MCU, in all of comics in fact, is Silver Surfer.
     
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  24. Olompali

    Olompali Forum Resident

    The reprise in Ragnarok is cool
     
  25. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    I think there's a plan to reboot the Fantastic Four and the Silver Surfer and give them the "Marvel Studios" treatment in the next few years.
     

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