Predicting the Movie Hits and Bombs of 2018

I don’t know if this says anything about network television, but my 12 year-old and 11 year-old were brought up on Netflix and YouTube. When they want to watch their favorite program, they want to watch it NOW. Therefore, they have ZERO interest in live tv.

 

LOL...not a chance in hell.

The production and advertising budget was $208m which means they need to hit around $450m at the box office to break even, and it hasn't even got to $100m yet. There are going to lose a lot of money on this.

Add the fact that the critics score is just 34% and the audience score not much better at 46% and this film has pretty much killed the franchise. The reviewers I trust all pretty much say the same thing, that it's pretty terrible.

You can justify making bad films if they make money (Fast and Furious, Transformers etc) but not when they lose the studio millions.

 

It's not a new phenomenon. I've had zero interest in live TV ever since online options became available (many years ago). I always despised having to be available at a particular day and time to watch something of interest. Those days really, really sucked!

 

the only live TV I'll watch these days is Game of Thrones on HBO - no commercials or sports

 

That's your opinion of course. I don't agree. Live TV created a shared experience amongst the nation and an excitement and build up which isn't there on streaming. How do you have a conversation about some show on Netflix with the office when all four of you are at different points in the story.

Remember going to school and talking about Dr Who on Monday morning or TOTP on a Friday? All that is lost with streaming.

Last night the BBC saw the biggest audience for years for a drama show as they didn't dump it all on Iplayer straight away and I think because of that it is a huge success.

On balance I think it's a bad thing that live TV is dying out.

 

I know what you are speaking of. I see this with children and "young adults" all of the time. But she is more like Deesky describes. She is not one of those children with short attention spans. She was quite the opposite. She would spend every minute of the day keeping busy, being creative. She was so tied up in her own natural creative processes that she was uninterested in just watching something on the tube. She did watch a couple of movies with me, but that was it.

Running a small motel, I have DirecTV's ultimate package of 150-channels, just like you would have at home, plus HOB and Cinemax for my guests. I stopped watching TV about 20-years ago. I don't even keep a satellite box in my office. I just watch movies on disk, Chromecast YouTube video's and display album art srom the streaming services on the TV screen. This child never once asked me to put on any TV shows.

She is really the perfect example, of someone who is not all wrapped up with the "media" as most adults and children are today. But she is an avid texter with her mother. She is very conversational and has a vocabulary and comprehension better than many teenagers I have known.

Two years after the release of the black and white McIntosh, back in 1986, Apple Computer released the Apple II GS, a 16-bit computer. GS stood for graphics and sound. I sent one out to an old girlfriend who was now in southern California, a whole system, with 3.5" floppy disks and color Imagewriter II printer.

Later, I was speaking with her children's mother over the phone and all of the children, the two she had when I had met her and two new younger ones, had learned to use the computer. They could turn it on, load a color drawing program, draw a picture and print it out. Even the three year old child could do this.

The mother told me, that after using the computer, that they had less interest in watching TV, because they could not make the TV do what they wanted it to do, like they could with the computer.

And now, back to the movie thread.

 

The Predator's Chinese poster looks pretty cool, female Predator.

 

Well, in this case it is an awesome thing....that girl you are watching has learned there are many more things to do than sit around and watch TV and look at her phone. That indeed is very different. She sounds like she is going to be very successful in life. I hope you will be able to see what she’s up to in her later years!

 

I do still record a few shows off of cable and I just can’t believe all the ridiculous commercials running in between. Are they actually trying to chase people away? Do they think inserting even more, and cutting down the running time of the shows you are trying to watch, will really bring in more viewers? What a very broken business model for this day. I do feel for them as I’m complaining but have no solutions for them, but using my DVR I’m not watching any of the commercials anyway. I don’t know why anyone would watch any show live these days. I don’t even watch SNL live anymore and wouldn’t...all those commercials are far to tedious to wade through. Seems like a short skit, followed by 8 commercials.

 

They think, these commercials are paying for us to make this show.

 

I totally agree with you. As I said above, I can’t even watch SNL live anymore; just too many commercials and it’s enough that it takes the enjoyment away for me personally, but it IS a lot more fun (for some weird reason) to watch it live with my wife. But now I just DVR it and bypass the commercials. Event TV, which is what I would say your are describing, was indeed fun and something to look forward to, and a victim to the “I want it now” generation. But I would say corporate greed is a big reason why this has happened. I was fine with wading through a reasonable amount of commercials, both on TV and radio, but it’s become far too much about inserting the majority of the hour on that and not enough on the show you are watching. No one is going to tune in just to watch or listen to commercials (I don’t listen to radio anymore chiefly because hearing two songs and then four minutes of commercials isn’t my idea of enjoyment). The owners of our air waves are as much to blame for the state of things as any other element. And the short attention span of younger folks? They might as well forget about any live shows and figure out something else. When I read the Hollywood Reporter, I’m stunned by how few people are tuning into live shows after the top 2-3. It reminds me of the very low numbers now required to get an album into the top ten. After the first couple, you can get on there with a few thousand sales. It used to be hundreds of thousands.

 

Yes, I realized that every generation says that when I wrote it. I just think it was so much better not to feel the pressure of HAVING to have your mind occupied every moment. And because there are so many ways today to do so, that old addage of stop and smell the roses is going to be truly a thing of the past. Hard to say if that’s a good thing or not. My 26 year old and her husband are very much in that generation and seem to be doing just fine. And like you, I can’t stand to just “sit” either, but I think part of it is a product of today’s reality.

 

Luckily most of the great drama, music and comedy shows in the UK were on the BBC and there were no adverts at all, so it wasn't an issue.

Like you, with commercial tv i tend to skip them by letting a show play for 10 minutes then rewinding it or recording it. I hate adverts so much, especially in films.

 

I haven't had that problem since I bought a Betamax in March of 1976.

 

Two huge bombs this week, films that were expected to do much better: Michael Moore's Fahrenheit 11/9 political documentary and the Amazon family drama Life Itself (from the producer of TV's This Is Us. The pundits are going nuts trying to figure out and explain why these highly-visible films both flopped so hard at the box office.

Michael Moore's 'Fahrenheit 11/9' And 'Life Itself' Bomb At Friday Box Office

‘Fahrenheit 11/9’: Why Michael Moore’s Trump Doc Bombed

Box Office: Trump Overload Leads to $3M Debut for Michael Moore's 'Fahrenheit 11/9'

‘A Million Little Things’ Review: Nearly 1 Million Things Wrong With ‘This Is Us’ Knockoff

 

I don't know nuttin' about "Life Itself", but it doesn't take a brain surgeon to figure out people are overloaded with Trump in day to day life and don't want to drop $12 to spend more time on Trump-related topics.

Possibly more than ever, people go to movies to escape the relentlessly insane news cycle - who wants to see more of that?

 

Also Moore started out as a promising director. Today he is just a total goofball.

 

I think most Moore "documentaries" have really just been attempts at self-glorification. He's always the smartest and the most clever and the most insightful in the room - in his mind!

 

Mike should return to Flint and try to produce a credible doc about the water problems. Similar tragedies are happening in other cities like Milwaukee. So it would be topical and relevant. Although maybe he doesn't care about Flint.

 

From what I understand this doc does have a significant portion devoted to Flint although I haven't seen it just yet. The review I read stated he juxtaposes some of the excesses from the current administration to that ongoing crisis. However, if you've seen it and the doc doesn't contain that then the review author was incorrect.

 

the majority of the film is about the flint water crisis. if you like his style and perhaps most importantly are not a fan of trump you will enjoy the film I appreciated that it did not pull punches on democrats as well though some will no doubt cry biased no matter what he does so be it.

 

Ok, good. I understood the review correctly then. I'd actually like to see it as I think it sounds like a very interesting doc.

 

On last weeks' Bill Maher he let fly against both parties and their ineptitude at resolving the Flint water crisis.

 

And still using it today? Lol....

 

The Film is about Flint and the poster shows Trump golfing? WTF?