Predicting the Movie Hits and Bombs of 2018

Discussion in 'Visual Arts' started by Vidiot, Dec 17, 2017.

  1. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    My god, the horror.
     
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  2. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    The breakeven point is open to interpretation. Famously, Coming to America cost $39 million and made more than $288 million, but Paramount insisted in court that it "never broke even." I'm sure it was profitable for Paramount, but if they define breakeven (and profit) by a specific measure and it doesn't hit that number, then it's technically not a profitable film.

    But realistically, I think Bohemian Rhapsody is an unexpectedly big hit. It helps that it didn't cost that much to make (by modern standards).
     
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  3. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits and Abbie: Best Dogs Ever

    Location:
    Alexandria VA
    Since you replied to a post that alluded to Disney's 2018 bombs, it wasn't a stretch to think you believed "Tomorrowland" came out this year...
     
  4. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    It may have been a bit of a stretch...

    Most of who reply to movie threads do have a general idea when a movie was released.

    Again, I might has been assuming too much.

    My bad. :hide:
     
  5. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Forum Resident

    TOP 30 of 2018 as of Nov 7.

    Rank/Title/Studio/Worldwide $$/Domestic $$/ %/Overseas $$/ % Year^

    1- Avengers: Infinity War BV $2,046.7 $678.8 33.2% $1,367.9 66.8% 2018
    2- Black Panther BV $1,346.9 $700.1 52.0% $646.9 48.0% 2018
    3- Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom Uni. $1,304.9 $416.8 31.9% $888.2 68.1% 2018
    4- Incredibles 2 BV $1,238.4 $608.1 49.1% $630.3 50.9% 2018
    5- Mission: Impossible - Fallout Par. $791.1 $220.2 27.8% $570.9 72.2% 2018

    6- Deadpool 2 Fox $734.2 $318.5 43.4% $415.8 56.6% 2018
    7- Ant-Man and the Wasp BV $622.5 $216.6 34.8% $405.8 65.2% 2018
    8- Ready Player One WB $582.2 $137.0 23.5% $445.2 76.5% 2018
    9- Operation Red Sea WGUSA $579.2 $1.5 0.3% $577.7 99.7% 2018
    10- Detective Chinatown 2 WB $544.1 $2.0 0.4% $542.1 99.6% 2018

    11- Venom (2018) Sony $543.7 $199.3 36.7% $344.4 63.3% 2018
    12- The Meg WB $527.8 $143.0 27.1% $384.8 72.9% 2018
    13- Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation Sony $525.0 $167.4 31.9% $357.6 68.1% 2018
    14- Rampage (2018) WB (NL) $426.3 $99.3 23.3% $327.0 76.7% 2018
    15- Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again Uni. $393.3 $120.6 30.7% $272.6 69.3% 2018

    16- Solo: A Star Wars Story BV $392.9 $213.8 54.4% $179.1 45.6% 2018
    17- Fifty Shades Freed Uni. $371.4 $100.4 27.0% $270.9 73.0% 2018
    18- The Nun WB (NL) $364.6 $117.3 32.2% $247.3 67.8% 2018
    19- Monster Hunt 2 LGF $361.7 $706k 0.2% $361.0 99.8% 2018
    20- Peter Rabbit Sony $351.3 $115.3 32.8% $236.0 67.2% 2018

    21- A Quiet Place Par. $338.6 $188.0 55.5% $150.5 44.5% 2018
    22- Skyscraper Uni. $304.1 $67.8 22.3% $236.3 77.7% 2018
    23- Ocean's 8 WB $296.9 $139.4 46.9% $157.5 53.1% 2018
    24- A Star is Born (2018) WB $296.4 $166.5 56.2% $129.9 43.8% 2018
    25- Pacific Rim Uprising Uni. $290.5 $59.6 20.5% $230.9 79.5% 2018

    26- Maze Runner: The Death Cure Fox $288.3 $58.0 20.1% $230.2 79.9% 2018
    27- Tomb Raider WB $273.8 $57.4 21.0% $216.4 79.0% 2018
    28- Crazy Rich Asians WB $235.0 $173.2 73.7% $61.8 26.3% 2018
    29- Halloween (2018) Uni. $230.4 $150.9 65.5% $79.5 34.5% 2018
    30- Paddington 2 WB $226.9 $40.4 17.8% $186.4 82.2%
     
  6. The Panda

    The Panda Forum Mutant

    Location:
    Marple, PA, USA
    In the Eric Idle book, Universal came to him may years after Meaning of Life was released and wanted to put it out on dvd. Idle pointed out it had never made a profit according to Universal. If they wanted rights, he felt they should have some money from the original film. The next day, he was told Meaning of Life had indeed made a nice profit.
     
  7. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits and Abbie: Best Dogs Ever

    Location:
    Alexandria VA
    You win. When I replied to the thread about my favorite album of 1967 and said "Born to Run", it was clearly understood that I knew the album was from 1975.

    Of course it was clear what you meant when you replied to a discussion of 2018 bombs with a movie from 2015! :sigh:
     
  8. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    At least its doing well so far, in your area.

    I see a big issue with people wanting to go see the Nutcracker weeks before Turkey Day. Now it is a month and three weeks before Christmas.

    I'm wondering how long that it will survive in theater's before they cancel the showings?

    I doubt that people will really start to attend the movie until after the beginning of December, which is a month after opening day.

    Which means, that it will have to eat up a entire month of low revenue before the seats start getting filled for holiday showings. That is, if they get filled?

    IMO, they never should have started this early. The only thing that I was thinking of, is that maybe, they wanted to get in and out of theaters in time to have the video ready for sale prior to the holiday's?

    Overall, I think that it is bad planning.
     
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  9. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    I wonder it there is any other industry where the principles of accounting are akin to Alice in Wonderland?

    There appear to be not standard's used for accounting in the movie business, ever!
     
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  10. mBen989

    mBen989 Forum Resident

    Location:
    Scranton, PA
    Well, if you feel like doing the math yourself, the magic number is 2.5. Oh, and the studio takes half of the gross.

    If you're doing international numbers, the China gross has to be divided by 4.
     
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  11. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    But, at the end of the day, the studio's make every movie come out different on the balance sheet depending on how they want it to look.

    As it has been pointed out, even if a movie makes many times over its actual cost of production, promotion and distribution, it they want to show that it lost money, somehow they do.
     
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  12. mBen989

    mBen989 Forum Resident

    Location:
    Scranton, PA
    Yes, those two Excel spreadsheets; one for the government, one for them.
     
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  13. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    I think there is actually three.

    The third is for the movie's financial backer's, who are looking for the profit on their investment's. :shrug:
     
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  14. NettleBed

    NettleBed Forum Resident

    Location:
    new york city
    Correct on both counts.
     
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  15. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    Or as the Taxman says: "there's one for you, 19 for me." That's not too far off from the way Hollywood accountants work.
     
  16. Being self employed for 32 years I sort of get it.

    I’ve had amazing years, so so years and terrible years. But even the good years you literally write everything off, sometimes to the point your expenses are so high that it looks like you made very little money personally.
     
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  17. GodShifter

    GodShifter Son of the Morning Star®

    Location:
    Dallas, TX, USA
    Could “Nutcracker” possibly get its own thread and be discussed there? It’s mucking up the discussion of “Bohemian Rhapsody”.
     
  18. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    Probably not. because Bohemian Rhapsody is a "hit" and we need a "bomb" like Nutcracker to offset it.
     
  19. Bismillah, no! We will not start a thread!!
     
  20. Danby Delight

    Danby Delight Forum Resident

    Location:
    Boston
    START A THREAD!
     
  21. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    Should we start a thread to discuss a movie that is thus far a bomb at the box office and only a handful have seen seen it, in order to discuss it?

    So far it appears that only the local critic of Marple PA and myself who either have seen it or will admit to having seen it.

    I have said all that I am going to say, to inform but not not give the plot away.

    I was replying to a comment about Disney not having the magic all the time and I referenced a three year old bomb that I thought had magic and I got in trouble because of it.

    And, thinking back, I did mention a another "hit" that I had seen, but that was from last year.

    I might have to go into hiding. :hide:

    I clearly do not understand the purpose of this thread. :shrug:
     
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  22. Mirrorblade.1

    Mirrorblade.1 Forum Resident

    Robin Hood will bomb looks bad how many more times?
    does this story need to be retold..? enough, .... already
     
  23. GodShifter

    GodShifter Son of the Morning Star®

    Location:
    Dallas, TX, USA
    You’re good. Relax :)
     
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  24. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    I'm OK, I'm just havin' fun.

    I don't take my posting seriously or audio for that matter.

    I see it as something to have fun with and enjoy, so that's what I do.

    Now, who else has seen NUTCRACKER?
     
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  25. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    We're predicting and discussing movies that were either hits (commercially successful) or bombs (unsuccessful) in 2018. There have been separate threads on at least four or five other years, and I anticipate one for 2019 as well before too much longer.

    This is no different than handicapping sports teams or predicting who's going to go to the Super Bowl or something like that. Just armchair prediction based on what we know has been successful -- critically and commercially -- in the past.

    I often say that movies can fail or be successful in four different ways: 1) critically [meaning what widely-read critics think of them as well as industry awards]; 2) financially [relating the amount spent to make the film vs. what it ultimately took in at the box office]; 3) by the audience [meaning the audience ratings based on Cinemascore, Nielsen, and similar polling methods]; and then 4) what you personally thought of it. There's plenty of films that made money that I hate, movies that I loved but critics hated, movies that I thought were just OK but audiences loved and critics raved about, and movies I loved but were pretty big bombs. It's rare to get even 3 out of 4, almost impossible to get 4 out of 4.

    It's very interesting to go back early in this thread and see what movies were being predicted as hits and bombs a year ago. Several people correctly said they thought Solo would tank because of "Star Wars burnout," and that's as good a reason as any.
     
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