Ray's Oscar Picks

Not that anybody's asked for them, but here are (some of) my picks for the office Oscar pool. These aren't necessarily my personal favorites in any category and I haven't seen all the films this year - heck, I just realized i've only seen two of the Best Picture noms. That's what having kids will do to you. But these are the ones I'm putting good money (well, okay, only five bucks) on to win. This seems to me a particularly tough year for guessing the winners. My only advice: Chicago might sweep, but then again it might not.

Anyway...

Picture..... Chicago
Director..... Rob Marshall
Actor..... Jack Nicholson
Actress..... Nicole Kidman
Supporting Actor..... Chris Cooper
Supporting Actress..... Catherine Zeta-Jones
Original Screenplay..... Far From Heaven
Adapted Screenplay..... Adaptation
Editing..... Chicago
Cinematography..... Road To Perdition
Art Direction..... Chicago
Animated Feature..... Spirited Away
Visual Effects..... LOTR: The Two Towers
Original Score..... Catch Me If You Can


Feel free to use the above picks in your own Oscar pools, but don't come crying to me if you lose. Good Luck!

Ray

 

I think Christopher Walken has a really good shot at best supporting actor. The only thing against him is that he's already won one, but that was in 1978 and has never been nominated since. He's also become "hip" in recent years, judging by the large number of celebrities who enjoy impersonating him.

Meryl Streep also has a really good shot at Supporting Actress even though she already has two.

I think adapted screenplay could go to the Hours, though I hope Adaptation gets it.

There's talk that Lilo & Stitch may win over Spirited Away, which I can see, but to me would be an ENORMOUS mistake since Spirited Away is the only real original, groundbreaking animated film in the bunch (not that the other's are bad, they're just a bit formulaic and predictable compared to Spirited Away).

 

I've often amused myself by predicting Oscar results by simply gauging the buzz and politics leading up to the event. Used to do pretty well, too -- up to about 85% correct guesses. Recently though, I've fallen almost completely out of touch with showbiz news and hype, so who knows how I'll do this year. But here goes:

Picture - Chicago
Actor - Jack Nicholson
Actress - Nicole Kidman
Supporting Actor - Paul Newman
Supporting Actress - Catherine Zeta-Jones
Director - Martin Scorsese
Original Screenplay -Gangs of New York
Adapted Screenplay - The Hours
Art Direction - Chicago
Costume Design - Chicago
Editing - Gangs of New York
Sound - Chicago
Original Score - Far From Heaven
Song - "I Move On" (Chicago)
Makeup - The Time Machine
Sound Effects Editing - The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
Visual Effects - The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
Animated Feature - The Ice Age

I reserve the right to change my mind about any of these predictions up until Oscar night!

 

I have one and a half days, and three nominated films left to see:
Adaptation. The Quiet American, and Bowling For Columbine. Actually 4. I just reallized I haven't seen Pedro Almodóvar's - Hable con ella (Talk To Her) and it's now gone from the art house theatre that it was playing at for the past 6 weeks or so.

This is one of the first years that I'm not getting a sense of what film or films will win big. Could be a split between "Chicago" and "Gangs Of New York" . Who knows? Price Waterhouse maybe.

I saw Gangs a couple of weeks ago, and was bored. Thought Cameron Diaz was by far and away the best thing in the whole movie. The subject matter just didn't interest me in the least. Two sides "knocking hell" out of each other. What's that all about? Daniel Day Lewis was superb, but his character and that voice graded on me, throughout the movie. I suspect since the Academy has never recognized Scorsese before, that he is a shoe in for Best Director. Too bad, since Gangs IMHO, is nowhere near the caliber of a "Taxi Driver", Goodfellas", or "Raging Bull".

Who I think will win ------ Who I'd like to win
Some of the "Who I think will win" is based on "Chicago" and "Gangs" being the "front runners".

Writing (adapted screenplay)
About A Boy
Adaptation
Chicago
The Hours
The Pianist

Chicago ------ About A Boy or The Pianist
__________________________

Writing (original screenplay)
Far From Heaven
Gangs of New York
My Big Fat Greek Wedding
Talk to her
Y Tu Mama Tambien

Gangs Of New York ------- My Big Fat Greek Wedding
Got to pull for the hometown favourite Nia Vardalos (Wpg.). You go girl!
___________________________

Actor in a supporting role
Chris Cooper, Adaptation
Ed Harris, The Hours
Paul Newman, Road to Perdition
John C. Reilly, Chicago
Christopher Walken, Catch Me If You Can

Christopher Walken - CMIYC ------ Christopher Walken - CMIYC
___________________________

Actress in a supporting role
Kathy Bates, About Schmidt
Julianne Moore, The Hours
Queen Latifah, Chicago
Meryl Streep, Adaptation
Catherine Zeta-Jones, Chicago

Catherine Zeta-Jones - Chicago ------ I may well choose Merly Streep after I see Adaptation today. Right now my second choice is for either Queen Latifah or Catherine Zeta-Jones. Saw Chicago yesterday and was pleasantly surprised. Jones can sure sing and dance up a storm. Queen Latifah's "Bessie Smith" type song performance was outstanding.
___________________________

Actor in a leading role
Adrien Brody, The Pianist
Nicolas Cage, Adaptation
Michael Caine, The Quiet American
Daniel Day-Lewis, Gangs of New York
Jack Nicholson, About Schmidt

Daniel Day Lewis - Gangs Of New York
maybe Jack Nicholson - About Schmidt ---- can't say yet, will be seeing Adaptation this afternoon and The Quiet American this evening. I'll tell you later who I'd like to win. Right now from the three pics I've seen, I'd like to see Adrien Brody win. The Pianist really moved me. "Not a dry eye in the house".
____________________________

Actress in a leading role
Salma Hayek, Frida
Nicole Kidman, The Hours
Diane Lane, Unfaithful
Julianne Moore, Far From Heaven
Renee Zellweger, Chicago

Diane Lane - Unfaithful --- Diane Lane --- Unfaithful

I'm crossing my fingers here. I've seen all 5 movies and all recently so they are fresh in my mind. I saw Unfaithful in the theatre last summer but watched it again last night on DVD. Great movie. Even Richad Gere was impressive. It's possible the Academy might give it to Nicole Kidman. Although I personally think her portrayal of Virignia Woolf was good, it was not her strongest. "The Others" is my favourite Kidman movie of the past 5 years.

My other personal favourite behind Diane Lane was Salma Hayek as Frida Kahlo in "Frida". That film was full of great performances including U.K. actor Alfred Molina as Diego Rivera. Molina is usually seen in period pieces such as "Enchanted April" or "Chocolat" playing these stodgy, conservative, English husbands. He really breaks out of the mold in this role. Very impressive!
____________________________

Directing
Rob Marshall - Chicago
Marty Scorsese - Gangs Of New York
Stephen Daldry - The Hours
Roman Polanski - The Pianist
Pedro Almodóvar - Hable con ella (Talk To Her)

Scorsese --- Scorsese or Polanski
____________________________

Best picture
Chicago
Gangs of New York
The Hours
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
The Pianist

Gangs (1st pick), Chicago (2nd pick) --- LOTR - Two Towers or The Pianist

The third hour, the battle scene in LOTR - Two Towers was some of the most impressive film making I've ever seen! Again, The Pianist moved me to tears, a couple of times during the movie.

I'll submit my personal pick for Best Actor and Best Supporting Actress later today.

 

Haven't seen a one.

 

I used to be really good at this in high school, not so much anymore. Maybe I just lost "it," but I get the sense that having fewer and fewer dominant locks like "Forrest Gump" and the relatively recent big-budget Oscar campaigns have really stirred things up. Anyway, it'll be interesting to see which movies are still fondly remembered years from now, and which will be collecting dust in the rental store.

 

I also feel Chicago will be a big winner.

I saw all the films except The Pianist....and that movie has some buzz but Chicago is such a crowd pleaser.



JohnG

 

I make it a habit to see all the best picture noms before the awards. I'm sure "Chicago" will win, but if I was voting, I'd go with "Lord of the Rings."

"Chicago" was grandly entertaining, but bogged down between the musical numbers. I thought "Gangs of New York" was good but not great, "The Pianist" was earnest but overlong, and "The Hours" was the ultimate chick-flick. Although Nicole Kidman was terrific, and she should get a special Oscar for "Best performance by a fake nose is a leading role."

 

The buzz here in town seems be favoring a "Chicago" sweep, but you never know.

I can tell you that, though I haven't seen it, I don't know of a single "pro" in town that's really liked "Gangs of New York." I was really surprised that it got as many major noms as it did.

I think the one that may do surprisingly well is "The Hours." It's got Miramax behind it, not to mention Scott Rudin, and it was an extremely difficult story to adapt. "The Pianist" is more of a critical favorite, but a lot of the rank-and-file are still sore at Polanksi (not without reason!) and so may hold it against the film.

I have a DVD of "Far From Heaven" and hope to watch it tomorrow before the show. I'll catch up eventually...

Ray

 

i thought diane lane gave the most realistic performance of the year.

the range of emotions she shows on the train when going home after her first encounter was simply mesmerizing. scarily real.

renny

p.s. i know she won't win though.

 

I saw "The Quiet American" last night and thought it was great. What a performance by Sir Michael Caine! Best I've seen of him in years. Too bad he won't win the Best Actor category tonight. Brendan Fraser was also very good. Much better than those Mummy movies. Do Thi Hai Yen as the love interest was good. Rade Serbedgia has a small but good roll as the detective. I also liked him in "Eyes Wide Shut" as the costume store owner, Milich. Those two scenes with him, Tom Cruise, Leelee Sobieski, and the two Asian men were hilarious.

 

We can always hope. I was thinking about that range of emtion as I re-watched the movie on DVD Friday night. That scene on the train is exceptional!

 

I recently watched a very young Diane Lane in "Rumblefish". She's been around a long time. I think it's time the Academy recognised her.

 

I've only seen THE TWO TOWERS; not much to contribute, except to ask: are there any actors left who are going to show up tonite? I haven't followed the story all that closely, but I get the impression more than a few have already bailed on the telecast, for whatever reasons, more than I guess is normal, to the point where a lot of *stand-in's* are going to be needed just to fill the seats.

ED

 

Ed, I've only seen the "war" on TV 7/24 for the past few days. I haven't seen any other news. Why are these actors/actresses bailing? In protest?

I thought there was so much "war" on TV that the networks weren't showing any regular programs. I was duped. On Wednesday evening both CBS and ABC broke away for "American Idol" and "Survivor". When I found out Thursday I was p-ssed to say the least. When I was channel flipping Wednesday night all I saw was news on all the networks I turned to. Somehow I missed ABC and CBS at 9pm Mountain.

 

It was a newspaper report, actually. No reasons were given for some who were originally scheduled to appear having taken a pass; speculation is it's either *prior commitments*(uh, NOW they tell us?!?), or worry over the possibility of protests or trouble at the event, the latter more likely. It's also possible certain celebs were also *uninvited*, probably because they're known for spouting off on politics, and the last thing the Oscar people want is more controversy. Kinda ironic, since it's the ceremony's more notorious and charged moments that have given it a kind of mystique no other awards program will ever have.

ED

 

I hope it's Martin's year, even though I don't think it's the picture that should have brought him the Oscar. Daniel Day-Lewis was riveting. I didn't see all the nominated performances, but Jack's been on auto-pilot for years.

 

I hear ya. I think he was pretty good in As Good As It Gets and About Schmidt, but not that good. There was one movie he did a few years ago, I think it was called the Pledge, that was probably his best performance in at least a decade.

It's amazing that with his incredible run from Easy Rider to One Flew Over The Cuckoo's Nest where he gave one amazing performance after another in some of the best movies ever made, he only got one Oscar, for Randall McMurphy, and that was about the time he was becoming more of a Hollywood star than a serious, groundbreaking actor.

You see the same thing with Russell Crowe. Didn't have much of a chance at winning anythiing with, by far, his two best performances in LA Confidential and the Insider, but he did win for Gladiator and possibly came close with A Beautiful Mind, which he won many other awards for.

 

For early Crowe you should see Romper Stomper if you haven't already. He played an Aussie skinhead. I think he should choose his projects more carefully, as I didn't really care for L.A. Confidential, and Beautiful Mind and Gladiator were clearly ihtended to reach very large audiences. I didn't see The Outsider. But I thought his acting in all those pictures was pretty good. And I don't wanna slag Jack too much for 'just showing up'. No one is a bigger fan of Chinatown than me. Sometimes you don't get the award for your best work, and sometimes you don't get an award at all. You just do good work.

 

I just returned from "Adaptation". Great movie. I was surprised. Nicholas Cage was very good. So was Chris Cooper. If I had to choose between the two recent Meryl Streep performances, I would give the nod to "The Hours". I thought her peformance in "Adaptation" was OK, not great.

So I left my earlier post with blanks on "Who I'd Like To Win" for "Actress In A Supporting Role". I'd give the nod, all be it slight to Catherine Zeta-Jones. If Meryl Streep had been nominated for "The Hours" I would have chosen her.

"Who I'd Like To Win" for "Actor In A Leading Role" - Michael Caine. Again, the performance from Caine in The Quiet American was outstanding.

See ya after the Oscars.

 

Interesting evening. Catherine Zeta-Jones wins for CHICAGO; Chris Cooper for ADAPTATION. Adrien Brody won for Best Actor, probably because the superstar nominees cancelled each other out. Only controversial moment so far was not unexpected: left-winger Michael Moore, winner for Best Documentary(BOWLING FOR COLUMBINE)went on his expected screed against Mr. Bush and The War. Got a lot of boos and catcalls and more than a few bemused expressions. Nicole won for Best Actress; not unexpected...

Lucky Brody; gave a big long smooch to Halle Berry! Shocked the hell of out her, let me tell ya!

ED

 

Wow....Polanski wins Best Director!! Who woulda thunk....looks like Marty's gonna have to wait for that "Lifetime Achievement Award"; should have won for any number of films...

Best Picture: CHICAGO.

ED

 

I liked the line when Steve Martin said that Michael Moore was last seen being put in the trunk of a limo by the Teamsters

Chicago winning was not unexpected. I was surprised that Polanski won Best Director. I always think if a movie's good enough to win Best Picture then the director should also win.

Oscar can be bizarre.


JohnG

 

Well, I got more than half of my predictions wrong. I'm glad no money was riding on this. Anyway, I'm pleased to be wrong about the major awards I didn't predict. I think "The Pianist" deserves the awards it got, and to me it seemed that at least this Oscar night was one that wasn't too sentimental or hype-driven.

 

Interesting Ed? Only two categories seemed to surprise anyone, Best Director and Best Actor. Nicole Kidman for Best Actress? Pulease. As I said in my original commments her performance in The Others and even Moulin Rouge far exceeded for me, what I saw on the screen in The Hours. Having seen all the nominated films in the Best Actress category on the big screen, I still stand by my choice, Diane Lane. Hopefully Diane will get another chance in the future.

My only correct choice was Catherine Zeta-Jones, who I wish would stop flapping about her husband, everytime she's interviewed or in this case giving a speech. "My husband this...my husband that...I share this award with him." Enough already.

It was nice to see the Academy spreading out the wealth this year. Adrien Brody was the only nominated actor who had never received the Oscar before. All 4 winners in the lead and supporting actor categories were first timers.

I thought for once the guys speeches were from the heart. Both Adrien Brody and Chris Cooper seemed genuinely moved by their winnings.

OK performance by U2. We've seen better. I'm surprised Bono didn't say anything. I thought he might at the end of the song, but it appeared that they cut his mike right away.

Michael Moore, left-wing? His speech not unexpected? Ed, you've lived up here. Up here they'd tag Moore, slightly left of centre. We were all very amused at his speech last night, and surprised that he went on as hard as he did, and that a few vocal folks decided to heckle him. It has been our understanding that Hollywood was unified in not supporting Bush Jr. and his war efforts.

SO, Chicago wins best picture without winning best director or garnering awards in either lead actor category. How does that work? My original selections were based on the inside word that Martin Scorsese was a shoe in for Best Director. If that happened, then theoretically "Gangs" should have won Best Picture. Does't seem to be happening anymore. If The Pianist (nice to see folks finally pronouncing the movie title correctly last night) won Best Actor and Director, ii should have won Best Picture. I would have been pleased. It was a very good film.

I'm reminded of the awards a few years back where Steven Spielberg won Best Director for Saving Private Ryan. Harrison Ford comes out on stage to announce the winner for Best Picture. He opens the envelope and the look on his face when he said Shakespeare In Love was one of shock and disgust. He probably thought that "Private Ryan" was going to win, as did I'm sure many others. Up to that point there had only been a couple of occasions IIRC, where Best Director and Best Picture were not from the same movie.