Predicting the Movie Hits and Bombs of 2016

Discussion in 'Visual Arts' started by Vidiot, Dec 18, 2015.

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  1. PhilBorder

    PhilBorder Senior Member

    Location:
    Sheboygan, WI
    I had it in my closet. sorry.
     
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  2. R. Cat Conrad

    R. Cat Conrad Almost Famous

    Location:
    D/FW Metroplex
    My predictions for Passengers may go splat as well. I'll go anyway just because I like the work of both leads and the teasers got my attention, but the early reviews aren't looking good. :cry:

    :cheers:
    Cat
     
  3. Deesky

    Deesky Forum Resident

    I'll see it eventually because of the leads, but the trailer looked dreadfully superficial and corny, so the reviews aren't so surprising to me.
     
  4. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    As we've discussed before, the trick is that there are several different kinds of profit. A movie can make a small profit for the studio, but never technically "break even." What they define as profit is very vague and tenuous, and it means different things in different contracts. The break even amount is generally defined as roughly 2X or 2.5X the negative cost, so if a movie costs $100 million, in round numbers it has to bring in at least $200M just to break even. Bear in mind that the theaters keep about 40% of the money, and the studios also spend many millions on advertising (what they used to call "P&A," prints and advertising). And from the moment the film goes into production, the studio charges interest on the money that's loaned to the production company. Note that the studio keeps even less of foreign ticket sales because of taxes and other international issues.

    But even if the movie breaks even, that doesn't mean that anybody is getting a percentage of the profits. They subtract a ton of additional fees and figures to the extent that a real "profit" is going to be nebulous. It's the kind of thing where they can argue, "oh, the studio made a profit, but nobody else did."

    I base a lot of this on the vast info on movie budgets, contracts, and P&L (profit and loss) statements published in various accounts over the years. Here's a good list of books that go into vast detail as to how the Hollywood system works:

    Powerhouse: The Untold Story of Hollywood's Creative Artists Agency
    Fatal Subtraction: How Hollywood Really Does Business. The Inside Story of Buchwald V. Paramount

    Blockbusting: A Decade-by-Decade Survey of Timeless Movies Including Untold Secrets of Their Financial and Cultural Success

    These Wikipedia articles also cover the problem of Hollywood profits very well:

    Hollywood accounting - Wikipedia »
    Creative accounting - Wikipedia »

    If you don't want to read the previous examples, read this brief expose about how a film as big as Harry Potter & The Order of the Phoenix (which cost almost $300M and made roughly a billion dollars in 2007) still has not technically made a profit:

    STUDIO SHAME! Even Harry Potter Pic Loses Money Because Of Warner Bros' Phony Baloney Net Profit Accounting »

    BTW, the music business and the TV business are subject to the same kinds of Hollywood accounting. There are many artists who have sold over a million albums but made very, very little money in their careers... and some were told by the studios & labels, "oh, it never made a profit, so you get no money."
     
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  5. R. Cat Conrad

    R. Cat Conrad Almost Famous

    Location:
    D/FW Metroplex
    No argument from me about the superficiality of the clips chosen for the trailer, but what caught my attention was the basic premise and proper use of visual effects (well done, not overdone), and the fact that the acting looked promising. Needless to say, if the story stinks, the box office receipts will recede into a black hole.

    :cheers:
    Cat
     
  6. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Senior Member

    Location:
    Canada
    Bombs away here's a list of 14 money losers for 2016. $$$$$$$ lots of red ink.

    in the list: Ben-Hur, The BFG, Gods of Egypt, The Huntsman, Allied, The Final Hours, Deepwater Horizon, Turtles 2, Ghostbusters, Alice Through the looking Glass, Divergent Series Allegiant, Billy Lynn, Assassin's Creed, Rules Don't Apply. Other duds that didn't make the list include Sacha Baron's Cohen's The Brother's Grimsby, which grossed $25.3 million on a $35 million budget, making the film the worst in Cohen's career; Andy Samberg's Popstar: Never Stop Popping, which grossed $9.4 million on a $20 million budget; sequel Zoolander 2, which grossed $55 million on a $50 million budget; and the Matthew McConaughey-starring Free State of Jones, which grossed $25 million on a $50 million budget.



    'Ben-Hur' - 'Ben Hur' to 'BFG': Hollywood's Biggest Box-Office Bombs of 2016 »

    [​IMG]
     
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  7. PH416156

    PH416156 Alea Iacta Est

    Location:
    Europe
    eh, wasn't "Assassin's Creed" released just a few days ago? Probably not a huge hit, but it may make some money

    I haven't seen "Moana" mentioned; so far, worldwide it grossed about $10M more than "The good dinosaur": was expecting much more.
     
  8. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Senior Member

    Location:
    Canada
    Creed is a bomb, it's going nowhere but down after week 1 - the reviews are horrid and fan reaction is not so good either.

    The adaptation of the Ubisoftt video game opened to a meek $14.9 million over the four-day Christmas holiday, putting its six-day launch at an underwhelming $22.4 milion. Assassin's Creed, starring Michael Fassbender, cost a hefty $125 million to make. Even if the movie makes $150 million worldwide, it will only make back 60 percent of its budget, with losses between $75 million and $100 million. New Regency financed and produced the movie, with Fox handling distribution duties.

    Estimated portion of budget covered by box-office rentals: 60 percent.
     
  9. PH416156

    PH416156 Alea Iacta Est

    Location:
    Europe
    Wow. I thought it would do better. I haven't seen any trailer or read something about it and it premiers next week in my country, so I don't even have an idea about the way it could be.
     
  10. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Senior Member

    Location:
    Canada
    A different kind of list - 180 - 2016 movies certified fresh on Rotten Tomatoes based on the following criteria.

    Want to watch only the best movies 2016 has to offer? Have a 400-hour gap in your schedule coming up? Then continue on with our gallery of 2016 Certified Fresh movies (i.e. movies at least 75% on the Tomatometer after crossing a threshold number of reviews: 80 for wide releases, 40 for limiteds), in chronological order!

    2016: The Year in Certified Fresh Movies << Movie & TV News and Interviews – Rotten Tomatoes »
     
  11. lbangs

    lbangs Senior Member

    The only movie on the bombs list above I find extremely unfortunate is Deepwater Horizon.

    Shalom, y'all!

    L. Bangs
     
  12. Deesky

    Deesky Forum Resident

    That's some list. I'm happy to say that none of those movies were ever on my list to see...
     
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  13. shokhead

    shokhead Head shok and you still don't what it is. HA!

    Location:
    SoCal, Long Beach
    Only one I saw was Deepwater Horizon and thought it was ok.
     
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  14. neo123

    neo123 Senior Member

    Location:
    Northern Kentucky
    I only saw Ben-Hur so far from that list, but seeing Assassin's Creed tomorrow.
     
  15. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits, Abbie & Mitzi: Best Dogs Ever

    Location:
    Alexandria VA
    I just watched the Blu-ray of "DH" tonight and liked it quite a lot. It's a basic disaster/popcorn movie, but it's well-done and pretty exciting...
     
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  16. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    The Hollywood Reporter just posted their official list of the biggest bombs of 2016, and some of the reasons behind why the films were duds. The list of films includes:

    Ben Hur
    The BFG
    Gods of Egypt
    The Huntsman: Winter's War
    Allied
    The Finest Hours
    Deepwater Horizon
    Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 2
    Ghostbusters
    Alice Through the Looking Glass
    The Divergent Series: Allegiant
    Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
    Assassin's Creed
    Rules Don't Apply
    The Brothers Grimbsby
    Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping
    Zoolander 2
    Free State of Jones


    It's an interesting mix of giant action/adventure flops, remakes, sequels, and well-intended artistic statements. Some of these movies lost nearly $100 million, which is sobering to think about. I predicted a few of these earlier in this thread, but I'm personally surprised that Allied and Rules Don't Apply didn't do well. Some of these, I'm amazed they were ever made at all. There's a lot of "WTF" in this list.

    'Ben Hur' to 'BFG': Hollywood's Biggest Box-Office Bombs of 2016 »
     
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  17. Deesky

    Deesky Forum Resident

    It's as if Deuce66 didn't make an identical post...
     
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  18. He's the best thing about the movie. The humor in 5 is absurd and doesn't fit in well with the story.
     
  19. ohnothimagen

    ohnothimagen "Live music is better!"

    Location:
    Canada
    The missus and I enjoyed it as well...I find it hard to believe Deepwater Horizon made the 2016 "Bomb" list given some of the utter crrrrraaaaaap that came out this year!
     
  20. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    Just a bomb in terms of finances. I don't think the reviews were that bad.
     
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  21. shokhead

    shokhead Head shok and you still don't what it is. HA!

    Location:
    SoCal, Long Beach
    And it did happen. I'm sure not 100% like the movie but a true story.
     
  22. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits, Abbie & Mitzi: Best Dogs Ever

    Location:
    Alexandria VA
    "Deepwater" got very good reviews - 84% on RT...

    That's the only thing I kinda dislike about "Deepwater": I think it threatens to trivialize the actual disaster/tragedy. It really does play like a traditional disaster movie, and I never invested in the characters as anything other than stock movie roles - even though the movie pays tribute to the dead at the end, the movie's such a pure popcorn experience that it lacks emotional weight.

    But it definitely succeeds as an action/disaster flick - it was much better than expected!
     
  23. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Senior Member

    Location:
    Canada
    I'll watch Deepwater at some point, I might catch some of the others down the road or not....
     
  24. Plan9

    Plan9 Mastering Engineer

    Location:
    Toulouse, France
    I went to see the Ghostbusters reboot in the summer just to take advantage of the air conditioning in the cinema, and ended up thinking it was much funnier than the trailers -which fell totally flat- let you believe.
    I thought the translation to all-girl cast worked pretty good as well. I'm a bit sad that it (probably) tanked because of the bad publicity.
     
  25. MekkaGodzilla

    MekkaGodzilla Forum Resident

    Location:
    Westerville, Ohio
    Thank the maker that A Hologram For The King (also known as Larry Crowne 2: Lost In The Desert in some minor outlying territories) was not included on that list!

    With a modest budget of $30 million and $4.2 million in total U.S. box office receipts, I guess it was a modest "hit"!
     
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