Do you think that sales of vinyl records peaked in 2019?

It's hard to forecast of course and try and determine market trends, however, there seems to be too many records around now available for sale with no one buying them. (Not just the independent stores)

In 2019 my internet sales were way up, but record show sales were down. I'm not sure if this is just because I was posting more online.

I think the record shows may not be a good indicator because I believe their novelty has faded. There are just too many options for buyers. A lot of the dealers at the shows just have the same basic stuff that you can buy elsewhere.

My pop-ups have done quite well.

Anyway I was wondering if anyone thinks we are in a bubble that is going to crash.

 

Could you please describe how you do your pop-ups? (I've set up at plenty of shows and probably will not do that again [long days, bad back], but a pop-up . . . maybe.)

Details about how these pop-ups have worked for you would be much appreciated! (PM me if you'd rather keep this thread on the prediction path?)

Cheers, Chaz

 

There will always be collectors, of course. I don't think vinyl will ever be the main means of listening to music. Is this a bubble? Maybe. I think it'll run steady like it has for the past few years into the 2020's. If there is another economic low, then I think that would be the thing that kills it for awhile (when people aren't willing to pay over 20 dollars for a new record).

As for record fairs, when the scraggly old boomers that want to go on and on about their boring collection whilst haggling are no more, then I think the younger people will enjoy them more. Then again, who's going to care about Foreigner albums when that happens?

 

Since Christmas, there have been dozens -- and dozens -- of posts on the Reddit vinyl forum (Can I mention Reddit here?) from those who are getting into vinyl for the first time, or just received a new turntable for Christmas, etc. etc. Bottom line, I do *not* believe that 2019 will be the peak year....

 

"Seems" may be the most worthless word in Economics. No proof? Move on.

 

I don't think vinyl as an everyday medium for listening to music has peaked. I suspect new vinyl sales will continue to grow for some time.

I think high-end, collectible vinyl might be a different story. I just can't see OG Blue Notes and the like continuing to fetch thousands of dollars as boomers die off and millennials and gen z, with their relative paucity of disposable income, account for a greater share of the consumer population. But who knows -- maybe fine collectible original pressings will just become another asset class for the rich to invest in and prices will keep going up up up.

 

It seems you may be right

 

It will continue to climb. I wish I had a dollar for every empty divider card for Madonna, Steely Dan, Duran Duran etc. I see in stores now. Teen girls love to pull the 80's commons.

 

There's a general resurgence of many analog mediums that's been going on for years now. While I don't know the actual economics, they certainly seem to be healthy, growing markets. New generations coming of age aren't hamstrung by learned assumptions of their parents. ex: Digital is "better" than film. CDs are "better" than vinyl.

I'd argue that multi-thousand-dollar vinyls have very little to do with the music industry, in the same way that $250,000 21-window VW splitties have zero to do with the current state of the auto industry. Do people actually drop needles on $2K OG Blue Notes?

Regardless, that market is so niche that there will always be someone with pockets deep enough to make those purchases. Take a look at the recent sale of the first C8 Corvette - it sold for $3MM at Barrett-Jackson last week. All it takes is two interest parties to make a market.

 

The industry should put vinyl only exclusive bonus tracks bundled in the lp package (and never offer it digitally!). Buyers need more incentives to buy new vinyl other then crappy pressed/packaged digital sourced material. People love collecting things and the industry could make some very desirable items that would sell like hot cakes.

 

I figured it peaked it 2017 or so.
I've been to 4 total record shows. I went to 2 different locations (2 different states) and attended each one twice. At both shows I experienced the same thing on the second trip. Same unwanted/overpriced records from the first time I attended. I mean literally both locations had the same vendors and the same stock.
I bought a total of 2 records at the 4 shows. Both are kinda tough to find in the wild.
Kiss My Ass - A Tribute to Kiss (only "KISS album I actually enjoy)
Pink Floyd - A Momentary Lapse of Reason

 

How far away from each other are the locations? A few hundred miles wouldn't be a big distance for business dealers.

My experience from Germany: Most business dealers are selling only a small percentage of their stock at each record show. So there will be only minor changes within a few weeks or months.

Have you been at the record shows at the very beginning? Most bargains will be taken by other dealers or by "early birds".

 

Seems like there have been far fewer 'younger' people bin diving over the last couple years or so ago. One of the largest chain retailers, Barnes & Noble, has also seriously reduced their vinyl floorspace. Hopefully sales from Amazon and the likes are strong, but on the surface it appears that vinyl isn't as popular as previous years at the local level.

 

I work in a small Vintage Vinyl Store here in the UK and the kids ie younger collectors
Are still buying plenty of 1970's and 80's vinyl from are Store.
I will say the older collectors have slowed down after are 20% off sale finished the other week. But Reggae and Rock and Prog sales have been steady and Reggae sales are up this month.
I don't think it's peaked here yet, Floyd.

 

Record sales will be healthy in 2020- if the HMV vouchers received for Christmas are anything to go by.