Predicting the Movie Hits & Bombs of 2020

Discussion in 'Visual Arts' started by Vidiot, Dec 4, 2019.

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  1. FVDnz

    FVDnz Forum Resident

    I think you left out Tenet, due in November... ;)

    And Dune isn't exactly a remake either... merely a more faithful adaptation of Herbert's classic Sci-Fi work - but you knew that already. ;)

    Missed out on seeing Bad Boys for Life today as I had to fly out to work yesterday. Another 2 week wait awaits - and seeing that I will be in Sydney at the end of the month, one has me wondering if this film will screen in the 4DX cinema. Couple of reviews already have actually come out liking this over the two previous Michael Bay films, funnily enough. Looking forward to see it. :D
     
  2. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Senior Member

    Location:
    Canada
    First big bomb of the year Dolittle? Budget of $175 million + promo, it is getting savaged by critics. I don't think Iron Man will be able to save this one, the trailer looks awful.
     
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  3. adm62

    adm62 Senior Member

    Location:
    Ottawa, Canada
    The Paddington films are wonderful, Peter Rabbit was pretty awful.
     
  4. adm62

    adm62 Senior Member

    Location:
    Ottawa, Canada
    I still don't understand the calculations they make about profits. If it cost $10m and made $29m that is an almost 300% profit. Also don't weekdays count? Busiest day around here to see movies is Tuesdays.

    I have heard it said that it costs 3 times the budget (in total) or something to market and distribute. Really? How can this be true? Am sure, for example, that actors promoting a film is part of their original fee which would be included in the original cost. Why does a 100 million movie cost 200 million to do this and a 10 million movie cost 20 million to do this? Wouldn't those costs at least be similar? Or is it all a scam to reduce taxes?
     
  5. Luke The Drifter

    Luke The Drifter Forum Resident

    Location:
    United States
    Definitely a big step down, but in the same style. Our kids loved it, which is the point. The Paddington films are beloved by mom and dad too. :righton:
     
  6. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits, Abbie & Mitzi: Best Dogs Ever

    Location:
    Alexandria VA
    I only recently saw the original, and it was actually pretty good! I was really surprised!
     
  7. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits, Abbie & Mitzi: Best Dogs Ever

    Location:
    Alexandria VA
    I think "CtA 2" is much more likely to bomb than to be a huge hit.

    These "30 years later" sequels don't seem to do very well!
     
  8. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Senior Member

    Location:
    Canada
    Studios do not get 100% of the reported box office, a good guideline to use is 50% Domestic, 25% China and 45% International, that will get you in the ballpark.

    Using Terminator Dark Fate as an example. Total Box Office was $261,119,292 with a production budget of $185 million

    Domestic box office: $62,253,077 x 50% = $31,126,538
    China: $50,638,863 x 25% = $12,659,716
    International: $148,228,352 x 45% = $66,702,758

    Total: $110,489,012

    % of Production cost recovered: 59.7%
    Shortfall: -$74,510,988 + Marketing costs estimated $85,000,000 = $-159,510,988 loss before post release income (DVD/Blu/4K/PPV/Streaming/Licensing etc...)

    If a movie can recover 125% or more of its production budget from its theatrical release it should be in reasonable shape to make a profit.
     
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  9. adm62

    adm62 Senior Member

    Location:
    Ottawa, Canada
    Thanks that's useful. But 85 million marketing costs? How can that be so high?
     
  10. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Senior Member

    Location:
    Canada
    It was a big worldwide launch well over 50 countries, several premieres, press junkets for the stars and so on it adds up quick.
     
  11. adm62

    adm62 Senior Member

    Location:
    Ottawa, Canada
    Wow. I am never really aware of any of that. I see a trailer then a few months later the movie comes out. Aware of things like TIFF of course.
     
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  12. Spencer R

    Spencer R Forum Resident

    Location:
    Oxford, MS
    There will be no more bombs in the future, as artificial intelligence reviews script ideas and casting choices to guarantee hits.

    'It's a war between technology and a donkey' – how AI is shaking up Hollywood

    Cinelytic was founded in 2015 by Tobias Queisser, whose background is in finance and film producing. His co-founder, Dev Sen, is a rocket scientist who developed risk assessment software for Nasa. Cinelytic claims to have crunched data from more than 95,000 movies and 500,000 actors and professionals, but its chief selling point is that it can make forecasts in real time – expressed as percentage probabilities of certain levels of success. With its user-friendly interface, clients can play with the variables and assess the impact on box office right away.

    Let’s make an action comedy starring Dwayne Johnson, say. It will be huge! But what if Johnson is not available? How would it look if you cast Gerard Butler instead? Not so huge, perhaps, but the budget might also be lower. How would it do if you released it over 1,000 screens, or 3,000? How would it do in Brazil or China? In effect, Cinelytic’s AI treats the movie industry like fantasy football, assigning quantitative scores to individuals, according to factors such as recent or past box-office performance or social media profile.

    Others take a slightly different approach. ScriptBook’s AI primarily analyses scripts, as opposed to actors or directors. “Most people believe that cast is everything, but we’ve learned that the story has the highest predictive value,” says Nadira Azermai, who founded the company in 2015. It doesn’t take a computer-sized brain to think of a movie that had a stellar cast but still flopped. But a good story will succeed even without stars – and potentially more so with them, she says.

    Within six minutes, ScriptBook’s AI reads a script and assigns it more than 400 parameters. “Anything that is information: emotion analysis, the journey for the protagonist and antagonist, whether the film will cater to a wide audience or niche audience, whether it follows a traditional three-act structure, whether the action happens in the most important places.” As more information becomes available, such as the cast, the prediction becomes more accurate, but if the computer says no to begin with, no additional information will change it to a yes.

    ScriptBook’s success rates are comparable to those of Cinelytic: 83% to 86%, Azermai claims, whereas human decision-making is successful 27% to 31% of the time.
     
  13. Mirrorblade.1

    Mirrorblade.1 Forum Resident

    I love in peter rabbit how they tormented the male lead.:D
     
  14. Mirrorblade.1

    Mirrorblade.1 Forum Resident

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  15. keefer1970

    keefer1970 Metal, Movies, Beer!

    Location:
    New Jersey
    Seriously? Wow. I had no idea it had done well enough to merit a sequel.
     
  16. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    Maybe so, but if you ask a member of the general public who Himesh Patel is, they will probably return a blank stare.

    Still, there are more worldwide box office names that could be considered.

    I don't think the subject of cutting payroll costs was overlooked and was a deliberate casting consideration.

    Not that I think that is necessarily bad in itself, other directors do the same thing.

    I just don't see the movie being a huge financial success, from what I see at this point.
     
  17. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    I don't think this will be the case at all, not even close.

    See above...

    I'm with Oatsdad on this one, not a stellar original movie to begin with. This is one of those movies that did do well at the time but if it were released today, it would not have an audience, outside of cable.

    And, with regard to those "30 years later" sequels, it ignores the fact that the primary movie going audience, by age demographic, was not even born when the original movie came out.

    I doubt if the 30-60 year old crowd will make this any priority to see. Thumbs Down!
     
  18. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    I think that Black Widow will be one of the biggest movies this year.
     
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  19. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    I think Black Widow will do extremely well, and that could well get close to a billion.
     
  20. neo123

    neo123 Senior Member

    Location:
    Northern Kentucky
    I agreed to go see Doolittle with the family tomorrow since there really isn't anything out that I am interested in and haven't seen yet. I hope I don't regret it. LOL

    It was either that or go see Underwater by myself.
     
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  21. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    I think Underwater, Cats, and Dolittle should be on a triple-bill at the multiplex: The THREE-BOMB Deal!
     
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  22. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits, Abbie & Mitzi: Best Dogs Ever

    Location:
    Alexandria VA
    Lotsa kid-friendly movies do really well on video, too. The "Peter Rabbit" movies can be done on the relative cheap and will continue to earn bucks on home video for years!
     
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  23. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits, Abbie & Mitzi: Best Dogs Ever

    Location:
    Alexandria VA
    I'm actually surprised to see "Coming to America" was the #5 movie in the US circa 1988 - I didn't think it'd done that well.

    That said, 1988 wasn't a great year at the US box office. "CtA" made $128m, which was very good in 1988, but not great.

    For reference, in 1989, $128m would've put it in 7th place for the year, and it would've been 6th in 1987, another meh year.

    "CtA" has some cult status, but I still don't see it as a blockbuster. A sequel should've come out in 1990, not 2020!
     
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  24. mrjinks

    mrjinks Optimistically Challenged

    Location:
    Boise, ID.
    This was a terrific book: curious how the film will do.
     
  25. Standoffish

    Standoffish Smarter than a turkey

    Location:
    North Carolina
    In 1990? That would have stalled Eddie's career, and we never would have gotten that string of wonderful classics he put out over the next 30 years!
     
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