Predicting the Movie Hits & Bombs of 2020

Yeah, I guess, but the rooms are also much bigger, so the potential contamination/communication factor should be the same!

50 people in a 200-person movie theater seems better to me than 10 people in a 40-seat restaurant...

 

Seems like six of one vs. a half dozen of another.

For practical purposes, I don't see any difference.

 

Big budget movies need to come out in theatres in order to re-coup production/marketing costs, for example a straight release of Tenet would be pirated in perfect quality day 1. Game over on any chance to turn a profit. I don't know how much of the $19.99 PPV rental fee flows back to the studio and from my perspective I would never pay that much for a home rental.

I would be curious to know the status of planned 2021 releases, would they be able to meet their intended release dates or will they get pushed back into 2022?

As for theatres re-opening, the only way that's happening is with mandatory mask wearing by all patrons and staff, zero exceptions.

 

Which won't work because theaters have to be able to sell concessions to make $$$.

Theaters struggle as it is - remove concessions from the equation and they'll lose buckets of money...

 

And I’m highly skeptical that’s even possible anymore. There’ll be no billion dollar box-offices for a loooonnngg time. So how long do they sit on movies that age more and more? I don’t have that answer, but (sadly) I think studios holding out hope for the theatre experience to return to bring in the big $$$ are clutching at straws.

 

In other words the theatre industry is probably DONE for this year. The big chains will file for bankruptcy if the shutdowns last into 2021.

 

No doubt Disney has already spent billions developing upcoming Pixar/Marvel/Star Wars/Avatar sequels, will they go straight to Disney + in the hope of drawing enough new subscribers to pay off those investments?

At $90 per year in Canada, $70 in the US they would need to pull in millions of new subs who stick around for multiple years to make it worthwhile.

 

Some bad news......

'Tenet' pulled from release calendar, delayed indefinitely

• “Tenet” has been pulled from its Aug. 12 release date and delayed indefinitely.
• The move is a massive blow to the exhibition industry, which had been using “Tenet” as an anchor for its reopening plans.
• This is the third time that the studio has been forced to delay the tentpole feature due to concerns over Covid-19.

Warner Bros.′ much anticipated spy thriller “Tenet” has been pulled from its Aug. 12 release date and delayed indefinitely as coronavirus cases continue to spike in the U.S.

The move is a massive blow to the exhibition industry, which had been using “Tenet” as an anchor for its reopening plans.

“Our goals throughout this process have been to ensure the highest odds of success for our films while also being ready to support our theater partners with new content as soon as they could safely reopen,” Toby Emmerich, chairman of Warner Bros. Pictures Group, said in a statement.

“We’re grateful for the support we’ve received from exhibitors and remain steadfast in our commitment to the theatrical experience around the world. Unfortunately, the pandemic continues to proliferate, causing us to reevaluate our release dates,” he said.

This is the third time that the studio has been forced to delay the tentpole feature due to concerns over Covid-19.

“Studios and theaters are unfortunately at the mercy of market forces beyond their control and with the pandemic causing continued uncertainty, it should come as no surprise that major releases like ‘Tenet’ are being moved or even postponed until further notice,” Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst, at Comscore said.

“Tenet” is no longer expected to have a conventional release and could open first in overseas markets where cinemas can safely reopen. The company is expected to announce its official plans in the coming days.

This strategy comes with some pitfalls, as opening in only a portion of theaters can increase piracy concerns. Consumers hungry for new content might watch illegal copies of the film that would inevitably begin circulating.

Last year, the Global Innovation Policy Center estimated that worldwide online piracy costs the U.S. economy at least $29.2 billion in lost revenue each year.

With “Tenet” dropping off the calendar, Disney’s “Mulan” is set to be the first major blockbuster to be released. It will arrive in theaters Aug 21. Although, it’s likely that film, too, will move from its current release date.

Last week, less than 17% of the 5,440 movie theater locations in the U.S. were open to the public, according to data from Comscore. A little over a tenth of those cinemas were drive-in locations.

Heading into August, 24.5% of indoor cinemas are expected to be closed due to state regulations on what businesses are permitted to operate during the coronavirus pandemic.

Even if a large number of theaters were to open in time for “Tenet’s” initial release, there were fears that moviegoers may not show up. According to a survey in mid-July conducted by Morning Consult, a global data intelligence company, only around 20% of consumers feel comfortable going to the movies right now.

 

Yes. Movie theatres are basically restaurants with moving pictures on the wall. And they’re getting crushed like restaurants right now.

 

They could have a film festival showing "Outbreak" Contagion" World War Z" "Andromeda Strain" etc for peeps who want to get herd immunity.

 

I see Tenet becoming a $30 V.O.D. rental and Chris Nolan hating you if you have a constant width setup.

 

Most restaurants that are open for indoor dining are not doing too bad.

I am seeing plenty of people in restaurants, not the case for movie theaters.

Most people only go to a movie now and then, it is not a part of their everyday lives.

Eating is very much a part of everyday life.

Eating is manditory, movies are optional.

 

And more bad news for movie theaters around the world...

Global Exhibitors Bemoan 'Forgotten' Overseas Box Office - Variety

All the indoor restaurants in LA are closed but maybe things are different where you are. These places are hurting very badly. Some walk-up restaurants are open for take-out -- I saw the famous Tommy's burger stand open near downtown LA a few days ago -- but the world-famous Pink's Hot Dogs has been shuttered since March. It's a real disaster.

 

I thought this an interesting tidbit from a connected article about Tenet:

"But “Tenet” faces a unique caveat in China, the world’s second-largest movie market. Currently, its exhibitors cannot screen movies that exceed two hours in length. “Tenet” runs at just over 2 hours and 30 minutes. Unless the country eases up on that restriction, there’s no sense of when it will be able play in China."

Will we see chopped down movies now, in an effort to get movies into theatres where time constrictions for gatherings become a thing?

 

I don't get this, as a lot of movies are more than two hours in length.

Harry Potter was two and a half hours.

Why are we just now hearing about a two hour runtime limit?

 

This must be a new regulation for China, Avengers Endgame was huge there and its 3 hours long.

 

Yah probably a Covid rule to try to keep people from being together for more than 2 hours. Not sure if sitting in a theatre for 1hr 57m vs 2hr11m will make much of a difference but I guess you have to pick a number.

 

Global pandemic. Re-opening restrictions.

 

I have been using my phone to access the Internet rather than my laptop since this started.

This linked site is one of those irritating sites where the page keeps going blank and reloading as you try and read it.

After a few attempts I just closed the tab. It is beyond me why they design web sites with pages that behave in this manner.

It seems that a lot of sites that I encounter act in a similar fashion.

Makes no sense to me?

Everything is open in Tennessee. There might be some restrictions and closings of bars though.

The govenor has recommended wearing masks and social distancing.

As of July 10th, the county ordered masks to be manditory inside a business and notices have been posted on all doors of businesses in the county.

Restaurants have been open with social distancing. The signs that are posted in them require wearing a mask when not actively engaged in eating.

Even though restaurants here are permitted to have their dining rooms open, I have noticed that the fast food restaurants with drive-in window service are opting to keep their dining rooms closed.

It is that way at McDonald's, Burger King, Taco Bell and KFC.

I had lunch at the Golden Corral buffett yesterday and Fuddruckers on Sunday.

I'm thinking that maybe with a physically small premises like a hot dog stand, the interior may be too small to allow employees to comply with some social distancing regulation while they are working.

I went to a movie a few weeks ago and the multiplex was dead.

Another small multiplex theater closest to me just reopened recently. They normally show $5 first run movies anytime.

They are now advertising $3 anytime movies.

The live shows run by the Dolly Parton group have been seated with social distancing in place.

Masks were required when not seated.

I don't know if this new county rule will require masks when seated.

I don't see people keeping masks on for a two hour show or movie.

I saw where the theaters were now being ordered shut in CA.

This entire way of thinking is on par with a nuclear destruction of the economy.

 

I agree with some of the comments on that article that say they should release the films where theaters are open and send it to VOD where they’re not. I don’t see theaters opening in NYC metro any time soon - every other indoor theater event is pretty much cancelled through the remainder of 2020.

Of course, I am not going to pay $20 for VOD since it’s just me here, but that seems to be the going rate. I’m probably done with current films for now, unfortunately, unless they’re smaller indie films that go to Netflix or Amazon, or that you can rent for $10 or less on Fandango.

 

Don't do that -- use your laptop.

I actually can access Variety via iPhone, but I use Apple's News app to read it. Comes in just fine there. It's very possible they've either crippled access on other browsers, or they're just inept. Variety and the Hollywood Reporter have had big staff layoffs and lots of financial problems this year, and it's affected proofreading, their website performance, and the quality and quantity of their reporting.

Christopher Nolan has really, really tight creative control in his contract that I'm certain would forbid any studios or distributors from cutting or altering his films in any way, particularly in the theatrical release. I don't think he'd allow it in any way. He'd be within his rights to say "F them" and just release it for $30 on streaming over there, months after the film exited theaters.

 

The type of place that I have been staying in Tennessee is a motel that has been converted to a condo motel. I got a good deal on a weekly rental but the unit does not have TV or WiFi for Internet.

Before the shutdown, I would use my laptop at Starbucks for Internet access.

Enen though the lockdown ended, Starbucks and other places are allowing people to come in and order for take out only, no indoor seating. Outside I can get Internet but I can not see the screen on my laptop in the bright daylight.

I picked up a smartphone to use locally and put unlimited Internet on it, so that's what I have been using these past several months.

There is one small benefit though. I have gotten used to typing text on the virtual keyboard of a 5" screen.

Still a pain, but at least I have learned to manage it.

 

Even though restaurants may be open, the most they can expect is half capacity. Most places don't have the profit margin to survive maximum half capacity indefinitely. I'm expecting prices to go up dramatically for these places.

As far as Tenet goes, I really want to see this in a theater, but if I have to see it at home then there is no way I will fork over 30 clams for inferior VOD. I'll just wait for the blu-ray if the theater is out.

 

With the cautious public, restaurants and other "optional" places are doung good to be at 50% capacity.

I am in Pigeon Forge Tennessee, which is the main tourist area in Tennessee. It is located just north of the Great Smokey Mountains National Park, which has 11-million visitors annually.

It is also home to Dollywood, which is the largest attended attraction in Tennessee.

This area is like a smaller version of Orlando and has most any type of tourist attractions, lodging and restaurants.

So far, things have faired well with the reopening. Restaurants and other attractions are doing well.

I would think that everything is doing better than many have expected, considering the circumstances.

Naturally, having a limit of 50% of maximum capacity is a major factor which is limiting profit.

But you are right, this can not continue like this indefinitely. Things will have to completely open back up again.

I doubt if we will be seeing price increases as that will kill things right away.

 

It sounds like $19.95 is working but I would never pay that to watch at home even though I understand why they need to get that. I would just get the blu-ray. I even struggle at $9.95 but that’s definitely my max.