Predicting the Movie Hits & Bombs of 2020

Exactly. You're in the same boat as I am. Bought a great 4K tv last year which basically closed the visual gap between the movie theatre and my home cinema.

The comfort gap was already pretty big. Just being able to pause the movie when I want, lack of commercials and watch it when I want are pluses that are worth the extra costs to me.

 

I’ll take my home distractions over strangers sitting in front of me talking and playing on their phones. I’ll take my home distractions and the ability to set the volume where I want it over the deafening soundtracks of many movies in theatres these days.

I grew up with the movie theatre experience, I get missing it and feeling nostalgic for it, but it’s done.

 

I admit I find it tough to figure out AMC's logic here, but I would guess they figure they sell the vast majority of tickets to most movies in the 1st 3 weeks, so they don't think they'll lose many theatergoers.

Also, the VOD will be $20 when it becomes available, not $5 or whatever the rate is on the old schedule. That makes VOD vastly less appealing, I think.

If AMC had totally given up on the theatrical window and agreed that Uni would put out cheap rentals or release digital downloads/Blu-rays after 3 weeks, that'd be totally perplexing.

I guess they don't think this 3-week window and then $20 rental will hurt much, if at all...

 

I have plenty of house hold items I can repurpose as oversized popcorn tubs, thus recreating the theatre experience...new trash bags, laundry bags, large pots to boil water etc! And tanker sized cups too. I can get obese and still watch a film for far less!

 

For certain films I certainly agree. Just haven’t been a lot for me personally the past few years.

 

Hmm...hadn’t thought of your point of most revenue being made the first three weeks. That’s true in many cases. I also agree that it isn’t likely that $20 is going to fly with rentals when things return to some sort of normalcy. Still, I think AMC realizes they are not in a strong position. I would bet Uni gave them a take it or leave it stance and AMC saw they had little choice. It could work.

 

Any idea what kind of screen they are watching this on?


Jim gathered the crew to show them three scenes with near finished visual effects from Weta Digital. Everyone was excited and pumped up to get back to work. Look forward to when we are able to share with you. — with James Cameron.

 

No clue. There is a move afoot to abandon projection and go with something like the Samsung Digital Onyx screens, which are essentially hundreds (maybe thousands) of LED screens for theater use, piled together as one massive IMAX-sized image...

Samsung Unveils World’s Largest Onyx Cinema LED Screen at Beijing Capital Cinema



Onyx | SMART LED Signage | Samsung Display Solutions

The problem with these large flat LED screens is there's nowhere to put the speakers, so they're forced to put them above and below the screen, as well as side to side. This creates a lot of sonic compromises compared to the usual "behind the screen" placement for theater speakers.

 

I disagree on a Uni ultimatum because only AMC is in on the deal. Apparently they get a cut of those VOD rentals and can run them on their own VOD program.

Why would Uni tell AMC they have to swallow this new framework and leave out the other chains?

I thought this deal meant only AMC would get Uni movies for those 17 days, but I poked around and think that's unclear.

The whole thing isn't well spelled-out in a lot of ways, really...

 

I think movie theaters will be one of the biggest casualties of the pandemic. By the time they re-open, we will have had months of getting used to viewing movies at home or on a mobile device as the only way to see them.

During that time more folks will discover that: Distractions at home can be controlled. Volume can be set at a comfortable level. Movies can be paused for potty breaks. Sub-titles are an option (it happens way too often that I miss dialog in a theater). No parking hassles. Hot dogs, nachos, popcorn, candy, soda are 1/10th the cost.

Personally, I'm picky about where I sit in a theater. If I'm not close to middle/middle, I'm not able to really enjoy the experience. At home I always have the perfect viewing spot.

Going to the movies can be a fun communal experience. I hope movie theaters survive and can come back. They are a big part of our economy, especially in my area. I guess we'll see eventually.

 

Cinemas?
Lost revenue popcorn, tacos etc sales. Folk will find new eateries. Sheesh.. I just went for the big screen.

 

going to the movies in the 60's was great!...they had rules and people respected them...it was another world....very enjoyable. I used to go twice a week when I was a pre-teen! remember the ushers with the flashlights that walked around checking the patrons...get your feet down please...one little flash of a warning light...

 

Well, a good point but I kinda figured all the chains would end up with a similar deal. Kind of like what Al Pacino tried to do in Godfather III...give the heads of the families a nice chunk of dough and then ease on out. Of course, he always got pulled back in, as he said on his famous line, but I think the train has permanently left the station on this one.

 

What you address is that it can be hard to change people’s habits. Now that people have to figure out a new way to view films they will, then it will become the habit, and they will experience many of the side benefits you cite, and good luck getting the masses back into theaters except for a very few tentpole films.

 

End of the day cinemas this century, was all about food / merchandise lastly the main feature. Surprised Sony don’t get their act together and start building 100 inch TVS.

 

I wish you were wrong, but I fear you're going to be right. We'll know more in about a year, assuming the pandemic is under control by the spring of 2021. (Big IF on that, and I really hope it happens.)

 

But people already knew all that. It's not like people weren't already accustomed to watching movies at home. We've been watching movies on TV for 60+ years - and often on high-quality setups for a 20+ years.

I tend to view this the other way: being unable to go to movies at theaters will make people more eager to see them in that setting.

Ya don't know what ya got...

 

As I alluded above: what "new way to view films"?

 

I have not looked at the demographics of who goes to the theatre in America. I suspect there is a big chunk of the population that has neither the money or space to have a decent movie watching experience. I am fortunate to have a very nice set up at home...it might be good for me and my family, but I don’t know about inviting more than one person over to see a movie. I have a 20 year old son - not sure he would look at bringing a date home to watch a movie as a date. I like going out to the movies...it feels like I am “doing” something, rather than sitting around watching TV. I may not care for the crowds, cost of snacks, the occasional volume issues, etc....but I don’t get lost in a movie at home the same way I do in a theatre.

That said, last fall a friend invited me to go to our local independent theatre to see The Irishman....I reminded him that it was a 3 1/2 hour movie.. a long time to not be able to hit pause. We watched it on Netflix.....and were glad we did.

 

In recent years, the mass adoption of 4K TVs and 5.1 or Dolby Atmos sound in the home has all but eliminated the quality gap between cinemas and home viewing.

For decades, Hollywood always had technology such as Technicolor that surpassed anything home television viewing could offer. For decades, no home television set could compete with the screen size of a theatre. Now with 55” and 65” 4K televisions at home, there is no real picture quality reason to go to the theatre.

 

Completely disagree on the ability to get lost in a movie at home. My wife and I watched Roma at home on Netflix and got lost in it. It’s far easier to get lost in the movie when there isn’t a teenager two rows in front of you repeatedly checking her Facebook or Instagram feed on a bright glowing cell phone screen.

And if people don’t have the money to have a 4K TV at home, I doubt they have the money to take a family of four to the movies and buy popcorn and Cokes for everyone very often. It adds up.

 

Cell phone flash? I usually prop my jacket up to eliminate any visual annoyance.

 

What do you mean? When you check your phone while watching a movie, you cover it with your jacket? Good for you. Most people don’t do that.

I put my phone on airplane mode and put it in my pocket at the movies. Most people don’t. Maybe we should go back to the day of ushers shining flashlights at those breaking the rules. I’m not going to the movies to watch other people play on their cell phones with glowing screens in the dark.

 

I agree with you although it really depends on your set up and home situation, as well as the movie itself. If you can watch a movie alone, or with a partner, it's way easier to get immersed at home. I can imagine this not being the case when yu have very small children.