Predicting the Movie Hits & Bombs of 2020

Discussion in 'Visual Arts' started by Vidiot, Dec 4, 2019.

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  1. Juan Matus

    Juan Matus Reformed Audiophile

    Do you think HBO Max will be successful? They don't have many subscribers right now, maybe 8 million but they could increase that quickly. I guess it depends if the whole direct to streaming takes off and continues post pandemic, maybe with a younger generation that never went to the movies much. AT&T probably stands to do well if it does but I don't know about the studios and movie theaters could go bust for good if this model is the new norm.
     
  2. brownie61

    brownie61 Forum Resident

    There was an article in yesterday's NY Times that says AT&T 's move with HBO Max has nothing to do with Hollywood and everything to do with keeping its share of the wireless market high.

    Who’s Behind the Fight Between Warner Bros. and Hollywood? It’s AT&T

    Excerpts:

    "For AT&T, HBO Max isn’t just a convenient way to get films and television shows to the public. Instead, the platform is a key part of its wireless business. HBO Max is included in packages for some high-end phone and internet subscribers, and it exists, in part, to create consumer loyalty to AT&T."'

    "But a strategy that strikes auteurs and cinema die-hards as dysfunctional makes perfect sense to Mr. Kilar and Mr. Stankey. AT&T’s primary focus is its wireless service, a $71 billion business. WarnerMedia generates half that.

    More important, the wireless industry brings in significantly more money than the entertainment business — and it does so in a much more efficient manner. AT&T’s wireless division makes three times the pretax profit brought in by WarnerMedia."

    "For AT&T, HBO Max isn’t just a way to make money, but serves as an incentive to keep phone customers from defecting to its rivals. Every 0.01 percent of customers who stay glued to AT&T are worth about $100 million to the company."
     
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  3. Spencer R

    Spencer R Forum Resident

    Location:
    Oxford, MS
    HBO Max will be successful if they have enough movies and TV shows that people want to watch to entice people to pay $15 a month for HBO Max. Adding all of these first run movies like Wonder Woman 84 to HBO Max certainly helps in that regard.
     
  4. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    I'm already an HBOMax subscriber and have already watched a few films on their service. I think the interface is clunky and slow compared to similar offerings from Amazon, Apple, and Netflix, but hopefully they'll get better.
     
  5. PhilBorder

    PhilBorder Senior Member

    Location:
    Sheboygan, WI
    Having had my own travails with ATT&T (to be blunt - they are not honest or ethical), I can't think of entity less suited to direct an 'entertainment' company them them. Unless 'entertainment' means watching them rack up an even more gigantic debt and betting on the size of the golden parachutes the rapaciously amoral executives at the top will get as it implodes and many employees lose their jobs in 'scaling for efficiency'.

    At least U Verse Boxes don't explode anymore.
     
  6. Spencer R

    Spencer R Forum Resident

    Location:
    Oxford, MS
    On Apple TV, Amazon Prime’s interface is clunky and slow. HBO Max’s interface is just clunky, in my opinion, Dumping all of the “Max” content on top of HBO’s library makes for a confusing interface with too many choices and no good way to navigate among them, especially compared to the old HBO app on Apple TV, which wasn’t the greatest, but was far cleaner and easier to navigate than HBO Max.

    The Apple TV+, Netflix, and Hulu apps are far better on Apple TV than Prime or HBO Max.
     
  7. Spencer R

    Spencer R Forum Resident

    Location:
    Oxford, MS
    As if Sony or Warner Bros. are enlightened corporations “just in it for the art.” If we hate corporations so much, I guess we can all turn off the TV and make arts and crafts projects at home. I prefer the current streaming era to the old cable TV model. It works for me, I can pick and choose what I want to watch, with no commercials, for less money than cable TV.
     
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  8. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Senior Member

    Location:
    Canada
    If subscriber numbers don't explode upwards in the first couple of months this experiment will come to a quick close, the issue I have is the limited run (I think its 31 days) for first run movies before they get pulled off HBO Max, you can't wait and binge view a bunch of titles they want you hooked into paying that monthly fee.
     
  9. PhilBorder

    PhilBorder Senior Member

    Location:
    Sheboygan, WI
    Some corporations have worked hard to earn my disgust. ATT is at the top of that list. A friend died a few years ago, leaving behind a son and widow. One example: 6 months after his passing we asked his widow what was the hardest thing to go through. She said dealing with ATT to simply close their account. Round and round and round. She wasn't kidding or exaggerating.
     
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  10. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    And now the DGA is getting into the fray, scolding Warner Bros. for releasing their movies to streaming at the same time they're going to theaters...

    DGA To WarnerMedia: Warner Bros’ 2021 Movie Slate On HBO Max Is “Unacceptable”

    I think their tenuous complaint (which may eventually be a lawsuit) is that when the studios do this, they wind up getting a huge percentage of the streaming profits while the director and other creative people only make a pittance.

    BTW, a funnier headline would be: "DGA to Warner Bros.: Drop Dead!" (If anybody recalls the famous 1975 NY Post headline where President Gerald Ford refused to bail out the city's bankruptcy.)
     
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  11. PhilBorder

    PhilBorder Senior Member

    Location:
    Sheboygan, WI
    I can't say I have a comprehensive grasp of the strategy of ATT Megacorp here. On the surface. I can see what makes sense. if at least to cut losses.

    However, much of the analysis seems to isolate HBO Max outside of a competitive and very dynamic environment. It's not just improving their 'churn ratio', its if these Dec 25 films are any good, if there's more in the pipeline, if Hollywood production ramps up somewhere near normal, what Netflix might do, what google might do, a new a possible #MeToo lawsuit, what Disney might do, what Disney might not do, a new Roku platform, a lot of pissed off ex-ATT customers who will never ever ever come back, etc, etc. I do know I would not want to be steering a ship with this much baggage and 150 Billion in debt. Though some of those execs may have already parachutes folded and ready to jump.
     
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  12. Leviethan

    Leviethan Forum Resident

    Location:
    Portland, OR
    Think ATT will run HBO into the ground?
     
  13. PhilBorder

    PhilBorder Senior Member

    Location:
    Sheboygan, WI
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  14. Spencer R

    Spencer R Forum Resident

    Location:
    Oxford, MS
    Having just spent a week watching HBO Max on a free trial, I would say that, with HBO Max, more is less. By which I mean that the appeal of HBO to me in the past was always that it was pretty curated: there were only a limited number of movies available, most of which were either recent box office hits or pretty good classic movies, and their original series were mostly all good. I don’t care for the Tolkien/fantasy genre too much, so I never “got” Game of Thrones, but it was obviously an event series, with high production values and a lot effort put into it. And I liked a lot of their other original shows, from Enlightened to Barry to Big Little Lies.

    The problem with HBO Max is that there are now hundreds of movies to choose from, seemingly thrown at random into a confusing interface, because the directive is now to compete with Netflix on quantity, not quality, and the same approach seems to be affecting their original programming. Instead of doing three or four really high quality new HBO series a year, now they’re being directed to crank out more and more and more to keep up with Netflix.

    Not sure this is going to work for them. The idea of putting first run movies that people want to see, like the new Wonder Woman movie, directly on HBO Max is probably the single best idea they have going for them, I would say, even if movie theatre owners and purists hate it.
     
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  15. Leviethan

    Leviethan Forum Resident

    Location:
    Portland, OR
    That all makes sense. I’ve noticed the quality of HBO’s offerings have taken a nose dive since GOT ended. I was drawn to Max because there are Criterion Collection offerings. I’d love to subscribe to the Criterion Channel, but I can’t justify yet another subscription at this point. And I would only watch maybe a tenth of what they offer. I also wouldn’t have time to go to theaters even if COVID wasn’t happening. I’m excited about seeing the one or two movies I would see In the theater every year in my home instead. All that said, I still haven’t watched anything on Max because of their completely asinine shunning of Roku. That’s going to damage them more than anything else.
     
  16. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

  17. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Senior Member

    Location:
    Canada
    WW84 is bombing in China.


    Box Office: 'Wonder Woman 1984' Opens to Woeful $18.8M in China for $38.5M Foreign Start | Hollywood Reporter

    The superhero sequel had hoped to clear at least $35 million in the Middle Kingdom, where the box office had made a major recovery from the coronavirus pandemic but is now showing signs of slowing down again.
    Wonder Woman 1984 opened to an underwhelming $18.8 million in China, behind expectations and a less-than-wondrous twist for WarnerMedia as it embarks on a bold plan to release its films both in theaters and on HBO Max.

    The Warner Bros./DC superhero pic came in No. 2 behind the new Chinese film, The Rescue, which debuted to an estimated $35 million-$38 million.

    Including the China number, Wonder Woman 1984 opened to a total of $38.5 million overseas as it began rolling out in 32 territories a week ahead of its Dec. 25 debut on HBO Max and in those cinemas that are still open amid the ongoing pandemic. That included $5 million from Imax theaters ($3.8 million was from China).
     
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  18. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    Hollywood has hit their tipping point with their woke movies. It no longer matters if they release them in theaters or not.

    The movies may be there but without an audience...
     
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  19. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Senior Member

    Location:
    Canada
    No shocking revelation here, the domestic Box office dropped 80% over last year.


    It's Official: 2020 Domestic Box Office Fell 80 Percent to $2.3B Behind China's $2.7B | Hollywood Reporter

    For the first time ever, China supplanted North America as the world's top moviegoing market. Yet no country was spared as global box office revenue likely tumbled more than 72 percent, including a 70 percent dip in the Middle Kingdom.

    It's official: North American box office revenue plummeted 80 percent in 2020 amid the novel coronavirus pandemic and unprecedented theater closures, while global revenue tumbled more than 70 percent.

    As predicted, domestic movie tickets sold between Jan. 1 through Dec. 31 came generated an estimated $2.3 billion (or $2.68 billion) compared to $11.4 billion in 2019, according to Comscore estimates. That's the lowest showing in at least 40 years. The dramatic fall-off was expected, considering that many cinemas have been closed for more than nine months in the U.S.

    Globally, 2020 movie ticket sales are expected to come in between $11.5 billion and $12 billion, compared to 2019's $42.5 billion.

    In a first, China supplanted North America as the world's moviegoing market in 2020, generating an estimated $2.7 billion in ticket sales, per Comscore.

    In another first, a Chinese movie — the World War II epic The Eight Hundred — topped the worldwide box office chart with nearly $440 million. A number of other Chinese films, including My People, My Homeland, populated the upper reaches of the chart, as did Japan's hit Demon Slayer. In non-pandemic times, Hollywood blockbusters generally dominate.

    No country was spared from the impact of the virus, however. The China box office was still down 70 percent from 2019's haul of roughly $9 billion even while it rebounded more quickly than the U.S. and much of Europe.

    Hollywood's biggest global earner in 2020 was Sony's Bad Boys for Life, which opened in mid-January on its way to grossing $413 million, according to Comscore. Sam Mendes' 1917, which opened nationwide on Jan. 10, earned roughly $385 million. Christopher Nolan's Tenet — the first Hollywood tentpole to brave opening on the big screen amid the pandemic — made its way to an estimated $362 million globally after launching in late summer.

    The vast majority of Hollywood's 2020 tentpoles were delayed to 2021 and beyond, or sent/sold to streamers — Hollywood's next big frontier.

    COVID-19 has marked a moment of reckoning for both studios and exhibitors, and alters the-once sacrosanct theatrical window.

    WarnerMedia, whose empire includes Warner Bros., is opening its 2021 movies day and date on HBO Max and in cinemas, much as Wonder Woman 1984 did over Christmas. And Universal struck a historic deal with major theater chains that will make its titles available on premium VOD 17 days or more after they open in cinemas.

    "The movie business will be forever changed no doubt, but movie theaters will be ready for their closeup and as things slowly return to some semblance of normal, they will star in an uplifting sequel of their own," says Comscore's Paul Dergarabedian. "2021 will be arguably the most important year in the history of the big screen, and one that will bridge the gap between a devastating 2020 that tragically affected so many people and impacted so profoundly many brick and mortar businesses."
     
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  20. alexpop

    alexpop Power pop + other bad habits....

    Thought Morbius trailer ( recent cinema version )looked terrific. Way-way better than the Eternals.
     
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  21. alexpop

    alexpop Power pop + other bad habits....

    Watched this again the other night. Guess a case of not convincing enough.. especially the fight scenes. Blake Lively junkie chic looked authentic. Should have included extras - extended scenes. Oh .. and the title. :)
     
    Last edited: Jun 7, 2022
  22. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    It us a given what happened back in 2020. It was 2021 that was overall a terrible year restarting the entire industry. Whatever money was brought in was brought in. There was no real way to quantify a movies success. Relative success was all that could be hoped for.

    This year got off to a slow start overall. Spiderman and Batman did kick things up several notches.

    Now we are beginning to see some surprisingly strong box office revenue. This appears to be the tipping point.
     
  23. Brendan K

    Brendan K Forum Resident

    Location:
    California
    ‘Everything Everywhere All At Once’ Is A24’s Highest-Grossing Movie Worldwide – Deadline

    "Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert’s fantasy family martial arts movie, Everything Everywhere All at Once, officially has taken over Ari Aster’s Hereditary as A24’s highest-grossing movie worldwide, $80.9M to $80.2M.

    And the movie’s theatrical run is far from over, even as it hits electronic sell-through stateside.

    While 76% of the Michelle Yeoh-Stephanie Hsu-Ke Huy Quan-Jamie Lee Curtis pic’s global gross has been generated in the U.S./Canada (or $61.5M), the pic has seen its best numbers abroad in the United Kingdom ($5M, solely distributed there by A24), Australia ($3.8M), Taiwan ($2.3M), Russia and CIS territories ($2.2M), Hong Kong ($1.4M), Germany ($1.1M) and Singapore ($775K). A24 oversaw the foreign sales and co-financed the Daniels’ movie with Ley Line Entertainment. The $25M production still has several offshore territories to debut in, i.e. all of Latin America, France, Italy, Japan to name a few, with Everything holding at above 1,000 theaters stateside with an eye at a final $70M."
     
  24. Jrr

    Jrr Forum Resident

    My wife and I didn’t make it past the first half hour. A $21 blu ray movie, what a waste. Usually love her films. Just too artsie of a vibe for my taste.
     
  25. alexpop

    alexpop Power pop + other bad habits....

    Should have made Shallows II.
     
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