Predicting the Movie Hits & Bombs of 2022

I suppose...

By that measure, I think we have been seeing far more "underpreforming" movies than Alita lately.

I'm sure that they do. Which is why WWS story should not have been remade in the first place.

Alita appears to have brought in 8x the revenue of WSS so far. It's early yet and maybe the big rally is yet to come, or maybe not?

Some unheard of manga is made into movie, with a part human part robot body, is up against one of the Greatest musicals of all time, a remake by one of the greatest directors of all time.

Eight times as many people pay money to see android body girl as WWS.

Of course, that's not being fair. Half of Alita's revenue came from the international market. WSS might set that on fire...

Well, fortunately, Avatar #2 will graciously be spared the development costs associated with Cameron previously spending this money on Alita. That alone should please the studio. It all works out.

 

In the end it's all coming out of the same pocket (Disney or Fox pre-acquisition), how the accountants allocate the costs on projects that share the same resources (Lightstorm/Weta) is up to them. The Avatar sequels were in development long before they green lit Alita for production in 2016, a lot of money was sunk into these projects prior to the Mouse taking over which makes me wonder how they were treated as part of the purchase given that Avatar 2-3-4 have yet to generate $1 in revenue.

 

at this point, Spielberg might actually be thinking hmmm, Jaws 5. Why not? Or Jaws vs. Predator... Jaws vs Fast and Furious... Jaws vs that truck driver from Duel... Jaws Pitch Perfect.... Spidey-Jaws... Jaws vs Titanic (in which he forms an uncomfortable alliance with the iceberg. It's actually a buddy movie)

 

And Az in the 1950-60's (if that's when it takes place) is a time and place we haven't often seen in films.

 

We saw The 355 yesterday and enjoyed it, too. Goes well with popcorn.
The Batman trailer, though, I dunno. Looks like another flawed superhero story to me...kinda dark...in both story and lighting. But I’m probably just showing my age.

 

Yet curiously disinterested in an expose doc on the mysterious death of Heather O'Rourke.

 

This is exactly my point. The profits and losses are all coming out of the same pocket.

There is no way that someone is going to convince me that a studio is going to green light a property like Alita for 200M, based upon its own merits.

Nobody has even heard of Alita in America, it is a Japanese graphic novel. And, it's not even a new manga, being more than a decade old.

But, what the studio does care about is seeing the dollar signs that Avatar sequels have the potential to generate.

Cameron has to bring this new technology to the table and perfect it before he can deliver an Avatar #2, Alita was the perfect way to achieve this.

The studio would have never have spent this kind of stupid money on an unknown property if this had not been the case.

There is no way that they thought that Alita could or would bring in $600M at the box office. I am surprised that it did $400M, I bet the studio was as well.

 

Spielberg just turned 75. I tend to think that he's now in the twilight of his career and is not thinking about sequels or mass-market blockbusters or anything like that, but instead thinking of his legacy. If he has (say) five films left that he could direct, then I think he'd choose films that are dissimilar to anything he's done before, films that enhance his career and tell stories he would be proud of. A glance at IMDB reveals he has the following films in development as director:

Blackhawk
Untitled Ulysses S. Grant project
Untitled George Gershwin Project
The Fabelmans

But as producer, Spielberg has the following projects in development:

A Steady Rain
Aleister Arcane
Cal of the Wild
Chocky
Destiny
Gremlins 3
Intelligent Life
It's What I Do
Maestro
Micro
My Magical Life
Pirate Latitudes
Powerhouse
Real Steel 2
Robopocalypse
Spielberg's After Dark (TV)
Talisman
The Adventures of Tintin: Red Rackham's Treasure
The Bully Pulpit
The Fall
The Grapes of Wrath
The Kidnapping of Edgardo Mortara
The Mother Code
The Talisman
Untitled Third Tintin Film
Untitled Walter Cronkite/Vietnam War Project
Voices from the Dead
The Color Purple
Who Framed Roger Rabbit 2
Untitled Bee Gees Biopic
Indiana Jones 5
Transformers: Rise of the Beasts
Jurassic World: Dominion

Some of these are like "WTF?", but a few look very interesting. For example, a documentary on the life of Walter Cronkite at the time of the Vietnam War would be fascinating (to those of a certain generation). Many, many directors have at least 5 or 6 projects in development at any time, with one or two readying production, and they do that so that if one gets delayed or cancelled due to budgets or actor availability or logistical problems, they have something to fall back on. There have been cases where Spielberg developed a project almost to the start of production with the intention of directing it, but had to drop out because of scheduling problems (with Empire of the Sun and Always): Rain Man is one of the most famous, and that went on to get nominated for 8 Oscars and win 4, plus it made $355 million (on a budget of $25M). Director Barry Levinson later said how grateful he was for Spielberg giving him the hundreds of pages of notes he had accumulated in more than a year of working on the script, and quite a bit of them were incorporated into his final film.

 

'Grapes of Wrath'? (!) Who thinks that demands a remake?

 

A new book perhaps related to the process of movie (ok, film) development and why movies (films) do/don’t get produced

https://lareviewofbooks.org/av/matthew-specktors-always-crashing-in-the-same-car-on-art-crisis-and-los-angeles-california/

By a self described ’mid level’ screenwriter who takes on (and takes down to some extent) and takes off on L.A. creatives, including Frank and Eleanor Perry (who wrote and directed some of the more left field movies of the 60’s and 70’s, including Diary of a Mad Housewife and The Swimmer), screenwriter Carol Eastman (5 Easy Pieces, The Fortune and some unproduced ‘apocalyptic westerns’ screenplays that seemingly outdo ‘The Revenant’ in visceral impact), Thomas McGuane (primarily novelist but a few screenplays such as Missouri Breaks and the underappreciated "Tom Horn"), Michael Cimino, Hal Ashby and Tuesday Weld. The culture that concurrently celebrates and isolates talented people is only transcended by a few. Apparently one requires a massive ego and obsessive vision to get anything done, and an almost psychotic focus to produce a good to great movie (film) Michael Mann's research to the point of throttling the juice out of his stories makes a little more sense to me now. He is protecting them.

BTW, Specktor is an astute and compelling writer, with a resourceful descriptive talent (that he could probably dial down a bit) apparently quite candid but interested in plumbing the creative reality of these people. And so, some intriguing disassembly of myths, like Warren Zevon’s Dad was NOT a gangster (sorry) and pouring through Carol Eastman’s archives to figure out where she might have got an idea for a story like ‘5 Easy Pieces.’

 

Really interesting discussions. Alita was a slow grower but has achieved genuine cult status and I think if they made a sequel right now that was ready to go in the next couple of years, they might have a real hit on their hands. I think Robert Rodriguez is one of the best genre directors currently working.

I think there were a handful of movies that all came out at roughly the same time that were very dense visually and perhaps hard to absorb in one sitting. In addition to Alita, I would include Valerian and Ghost in the Shell, all movies I have come to enjoy more and more with repeated viewings. They are not necessarily as easily digestible as the Marvel movies and perhaps that is why they didn't wow at the box office but picked up fans after the fact. Dunno.

Now based on what you say here, and about the underperformance of the Matrix movie, it really makes me wonder about Avatar. Admittedly, I didn't like the original movie and am not the biggest fan of Cameron in general, but it took so long to get those sequels off the ground, are modern audiences really going to care? I guess time will tell but it seems like a huge gamble to me. The days of the guaranteed blockbuster are over.

 

I see the term "cult status" a lot, pertaining to Alita. Usually that term is reserved for obscure films with a niche fearcely dedicated fan base.

Kind of hard to pin down but I would estimate that an average domestic gross for a movie to be somewhere in the range of 100M to 130M.

So if a movie grosses 200M, would it be considered a cult movie?

I agree. I happen to think that he has brought in amazing movies on tiny budgets and proven himself across a wide range of genre's.

I find Valerian to be visually stunning movie, almost to the point of being mesmerizing.

There are a few issues here. Movie sequels that come out after many years, like the last Terminator, Rambo and Matrix do suffer from being out of sight and out of mind. When people think back and remember them, they think of how repetitive the early sequels were.

Then there is the matter of the aging cast...

With regard to this last observation, Avatar is more recent and the cast spends most of the picture being "blue", so that isn't so much of a problem.

But, age has not been kind to Avatar's memories. 3D is no longer new and novel. The main thing that I think it has going for itself at this point is that the original was so huge at the box office.

If the sequel does tank, then count on Disney turning Avatar Land into a Frozen theme park!

 

The Matrix movie could be streamed same day as the theatrical, who knows how much $$$ that cost them at the box office, worldwide gross to date is only $107.6 million. Critical/Fan response is lukewarm at best 64%/63% at Rotten Tomatoes - IMDB is poor at 5.7/10, also consider that it's coming off two sequels that were not all that well received, the mediocre results make sense. The original Matrix caught lightning in a bottle nothing will change the impact that movie had.

The themes that will be presented in the Avatar sequels will be timeless and should appeal to a wide variety of people & cultures all over the world. The first movie is in the top 1-3 box office $$$ in 39 countries. Even if it drops 50% from the original that's $1.425 Billion that would be good enough for Disney to green light the completion of IV and start work on V.

 

A 100 million dollar movie needing to make 400 million to break even just sounds like creative accounting and tax dodging. Totally ridiculous

What are these extra costs? Why aren't they included in the movie budget? And what on earth can cost 300 million extra? Marketing and distribution? Surely not.

300 million dollars is an awful lot of money especially if none of it is being spent on actor's payments, filming costs, special effects etc

 

Cinemas have to make money too.

How much does a movie need to be profitable?

Let's also consider that some markets aren't really that profitable eg China; they keep the biggest slice of the pie. When a Hollywood film makes $100M in China, it really means the studios get $30 to $40M.

 

As a general rule studios only get 50% of domestic gross, 25% of China and 45% of international.

in Alita's case (rough estimate)
Domestic: $85.8 million x 50% = $42.9m
China: $133.4 million x 25% = $33.35m
Rest of the world: $185.8 million x 45% =$83.6m
Total: $159.85 million box office revenue

Alita's production budget was $170 million + another $100 million possibly more for worldwide publicity/marketing

$159.85 million - $270 million = -$110.15 m in the hole before post release revenue (PPV/DVD-Blu/TV rights etc....) with the sales of physical discs in the dumpster I really doubt Alita can make enough to dig itself out of that hole.

 

Got it, thanks.

 

There should just be a moratorium on remaking John Ford movies. No one is going to get it right because they aren't John Ford.

 

Very true in the case of Alita. It's based on a Manga that has been around forever that is very good and seems to generate a perennial fanbase among us geek-types. I mean Cameron is a fan and tried to get a movie off the ground forever. I give him a lot of credit for sticking with it.

 

I posted this originally in the Spider-Man thread - now updated with the latest #'s.

Spider-Man: No Way Home is now #8 All-Time (Modern Box Office - not adjusted for inflation) with $1.536 Billion without a $ from China and no word on if or when it will see a release over there.

1- Avatar - $2,847,246,203 2009
2- Avengers: Endgame - $2,797,501,328 2019
3- Titanic - $2,201,647,264 1997
4- Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens - $2,069,521,700 2015
5- Avengers: Infinity War - $2,048,359,754 2018
6- Jurassic World - $1,670,516,444 2015
7- The Lion King - $1,662,899,439 2019
8- Spider-Man: No Way Home - $1,536,253,195 2021
9- The Avengers - $1,518,815,515 2012
10- Furious 7 - $1,515,341,399 2015
11- Frozen II - $1,450,026,933 2019
12- Avengers: Age of Ultron - $1,402,809,540 2015

 

As much as I find these threads enjoyable and fun, unfortunately these days, the following simple formula will have a very high success rate.

Superhero movie = HIT

non-Superhero movie = BOMB

Personally, I find the endless parade of MCU films incredibly boring and repetitive, but they make money.

 

assuming it does come out this year, I think the mario bros movie will be a hit.

 

Looking at the top 25 of 2021 we have the following. Seven titles are more or less exclusive to China **, almost everything else is a franchise or sequel.

1- Spider-Man: No Way Home $1,536,253,195
2**- The Battle at Lake Changjin $902,540,914
3**- Hi, Mom $822,009,764
4- No Time to Die $774,034,007
5- F9: The Fast Saga $726,229,501
6**- Detective Chinatown 3 $686,257,563
7- Venom: Let There Be Carnage $501,138,437
8- Godzilla vs. Kong $467,863,133
9- Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings $432,233,010
10- Eternals $401,708,534
11- Dune $396,149,263
12- Black Widow $379,631,351
13- Free Guy $331,503,757
14- A Quiet Place Part II $297,372,261
15- Cruella $233,274,812
16**- My Country, My Parents $221,701,823
17- Jungle Cruise $220,889,446
18- Encanto $215,513,971
19**- Raging Fire $205,838,889
20- The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It $201,965,074
21**- Chinese Doctors $197,143,218
22- Ghostbusters: Afterlife $191,164,125
23- Sing 2 $190,838,985
24**- Cliff Walkers $181,325,565
25- The Suicide Squad $167,400,219

 

Going from pre-pandemic numbers, box office receipts fell to 25% in 2020. And were about 50% in 2021 of what they were in 2019.

So, if it were not for the pandemic, all of these figures might actually double the amounts that are represented here.

 

Can you imagine a first meeting between Cameron and the studio execs?

I have this idea for a movie, its called Battle Angel Alita.

Why Battle Angel Alita?

Because it's based on the Manga.

What's a Manga?

It's a Japanese graphic novel, sort of a comic book, if you will. It's well known in Japanese culture.

And in America?

About 0.01 percent might be familiar with it.

Oh. How much will it cost to make?

I believe I can bring it in under 200M...