The very fact that it is being discussed here means there will be some panic buying and hoarding. That will mean temporary shortage and a price spike.
Panic buying tubes? That will do you no good when the electricity get shut off, or you can't afford to turn on your lights. Beans, tuna, water, canned anything you can eat. Do you think anything will be cheaper in 3 months?
I'm not sure there's been particularly a tube resurgence in the last couple of years. There's been pretty steady interest in tubes for a while, especially from the guitar market. New Sensor's Saratov factory in Russia is, I think, the biggest single operating tube factory, but of course there's lots of new tube production out of China and the Slovak Republic as well so I'm not sure we'll have no options for new production tubes if Russia goods in the US and Europe are cut off. But I like the best of the New Sensor tubes better than some of the other new production tubes I've heard, so yeah, I am worried about future availability of them. I have some power tubes in the hole but only one quad of them. I think probably it is a good idea to stock up on replacements now if you like New Sensor Russian-made tubes.
I don't think it's just a couple of years, but the tube demand seems to be a good bit larger than a decade ago or two ago. But it's possible that I was not looking. They certainly have moved into the more affordable end of the market, though I am sure they are still a tiny niche overall.
The invasion has started. You're gonna have much more to be concerned about than the availability and prices of vacuum tubes.
I thought I did not run any Russian tubes and then I remembered: My phono stage has two Sovtek 300b's that operate as rectifiers.
Oh, believe me! I closed on my vacation home last week with the idea that I could ramp down this year and retire. Now watching my retirement nest egg crater between the market and inflation. This thread was just a small distraction and actually was intended to be tongue in cheek in a "let them eat cake" kind of way.
But it might increase NOS tube shortages as the overall supply of many tube types decreases. However the balancing factor is that when people get scared, they tend to stop spending on non-necessities.
Already seeing prices going up. Just ordered a quad of GL KT88s from a reseller that hasn't raised their prices yet.
I have a swiss made Swissonor tube amp, using ECC81, ECC83, 6v6 and a GZ34. After having big quality issues with some russian tubes (tung sol) I bought 2 complete sets of NOS tubes (RCA, Philips Miniwatt, Telefunken). Good tubes last quite long, so I have a nice stock for many years
Nothing is. People pollute, period. If you want people to stop polluting, they'll basically need to be wiped out completely. Nothing else will stop it.
I buy all my tubes from Audio Research, and they are the kind of company that keep a lot of stock for their components on hand as they purchase and match them for that purpose.
i agree a great as tubes and audio in general is, it is much more worrying where the Ukraine invasion may lead us to, i realise that to many it is a far off place but as the world is very much interconnected now, like with our music we are a global community that when 1 suffers we can all feel the impact, i for one had some super HPs from a small Ukrainian manufacturer and it makes me pause to think of him and his small company and hope they are all ok
Actually the concern regarding vacuum tube shortages is old news: “There is a worldwide panic on availability of vacuum tubes”: EHX's Mike Matthews on the murky future of valve amps | Guitar.com | All Things Guitar In terms of what's unfolding on the world stage now, global markets are already reacting. You think gas and oil prices are high now, the longer this invasion lasts and the tougher the sanctions become, you, me and everybody else is gonna feel it their pocket book. Inflation was bad before the invasion. It's just gonna create more financial turmoil and no one knows where or when this is gonna end. Personally, I'm not concerned about a tube shortage. It's a multi-billion dollar global industry. Somebody, somewhere is gonna step up to fill the void -- too much money to leave on the table. Besides, Russia's revenues aren't dependent on vacuum tube sales. As one analyst put it, Russia is a big gas station (oil & natural gas) - that's where the real money is and oil prices have surged above $100 per barrel, so Russia could care less if no one bought their vacuum tubes. On the other hand, New Sensor Corporation might be looking at losing some revenue and or be facing some political pressure.