Predicting the Movie Hits & Bombs of 2022

Tom Cruise is the one celeb , whose off-screen shenanigan's , do nothing (zero) with his ability to make $$$

 

Pretty amazing: Top Gun Maverick is exceeding expectations and they're predicting it'll make about $146 million in America over the long holiday weekend...

‘Top Gun: Maverick’ Set To Take Breath Away With
$146M+ Memorial Day Opening, Best Ever For Tom Cruise

Top Gun: Maverick cost a lot of money -- they're claiming $170M, but I've seen estimates as high as $250M with overruns, marketing, reshoots, and COVID problems -- but I'd bet that Paramount and Cruise will be disappointed if it doesn't hit at least $800 million. I think his highest-grossing film up to now has been Mission Impossible: Fallout, which made about $791M.

But there's huge buzz for this one, so I'll predict it could do $1 billion worldwide. I think it's the right movie at the right time, and timing is a huge part of success in this business.

 

The marketing effort for this movie has been A+++ at least from what I can see in the domestic market, it wouldn't surprise me if it matched the production costs which means it needs to make close to $1 billion from the box office in order to recover production/marketing costs before it goes into gravy mode. I have no doubt it will be a huge hit for Paramount.

Rental costs per hour for the F-18's $11,374 - rule for the actors including Tom C (don't touch any controls).

 

Top Gun: Maverick Thursday Box Office Highest In Paramount History

 

The guy is going to be 60 , all in all , kind of amazing

 

Well, and the minor point that it’s actually supposed to be an incredibly good film, a minor detail that some film makers seem to forget about. I’m really surprised. I had zero interest in seeing this, but simply based on all the incredibly positive comments, my wife and I are going to see it. At a real movie theatre! If that’s are reaction, imagine how many more will venture out. This thing may go even higher than they thought. That’s awesome….bodes well for studios taking some financial risks and putting some real good films into play. I bet the purse strings were getting very tight!

 

More detailed information behind the success of TG Maverick.


https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/29/top-gun-maverick-box-office-results-tom-cruise.html

• “Top Gun: Maverick” soared to $124 million during its opening weekend, earning Tom Cruise his highest domestic debut.
• The Paramount and Skydance film also generated $124 million internationally, bringing its total opening weekend haul to $248 million.
• According to data from Paramount, 55% of moviegoers were over the age of 35.

LOS ANGELES – “Top Gun: Maverick” soared to $124 million during its opening weekend, earning Tom Cruise his highest domestic debut.

The prolific actor, who has made a name for himself as a fearless stuntman, has generated more than $4.2 billion at the domestic box office since 1981 but had previously never had a film open to more than $65 million.

The Paramount and Skydance film also generated $124 million internationally, bringing its total opening weekend haul to $248 million. The studio expects the film to reach $151 million for the four-day Memorial Day weekend. The film could have a strong hold over the next few weeks as it faces limited box office competition until the June 10 release of Universal’s “Jurassic World: Dominion.”

“The summer movie season is back,” said Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore. “The performance of ‘Top Gun: Maverick’ is a stunning reminder that when you combine one of the last genuine movie stars with great old fashioned story telling, audiences of all ages will rush out to the theater to be a part of the communal bigger than life moviegoing experience.”

The big opening for “Top Gun: Maverick” is a positive sign for the box office, which is still recovering from the ongoing pandemic. The film drew in older audiences, a coveted demographic that has been slower to return to cinemas since they began to reopen in mid-2020.

Around 29% of tickets sold during the weekend were for showings before 3 p.m. and 35% were were for screenings between 3 p.m. and 7 p.m., according to EntTelligence. This indicates that a significant chunk of ticket sales were for matinee shows, a time period that older moviegoers gravitate towards.

Only 11% of tickets were sold for showings held after 9 p.m. According to data from Paramount, 55% of moviegoers were over the age of 35.

Around 9 million moviegoers are expected to see “Top Gun: Maverick” over its first three days in theaters, according to EntTelligence. This is more than four times the two million patrons that saw the original “Top Gun” in theaters during its debut in 1986.

Not including Thursday preview screenings, 32% of tickets were sold for premium format showings, with the average ticket price hitting $16.32. Non-premium tickets averaged at around $12.86 a piece, EntTelligence reported.

The film’s strong performance also comes just weeks after Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway revealed it had bought 68.9 million shares of Paramount to build a stake worth $2.6 billion as of the end of March.

Paramount was Berkshire’s 18th largest holding at the end of the first quarter. The new stake adds another streaming property to Berkshire’s portfolio, whose top holding is Apple.

 

Box Office: ‘Top Gun: Maverick’ Opening To $150M, Best For Tom Cruise – Deadline

 

I'm always glad to see a movie that gets really good reviews, is clearly a big crowd-pleaser, and also winds up making a ton of money. This is good for everybody: good for fans, good for theater owners, good for studios, even good for the other movies out at the same time. When more people are coming to theaters, more movies wind up getting seen.

We'll wait until the crowds die down a little bit, but we're gonna try to take in Downton Abbey: A New Era tomorrow. It's doing very well for a small film:

‘Downton Abbey’ Movie Sequel Serving Up Solid $18M Box Office Opening – The Hollywood Reporter

 

Finally saw THE NORTHMAN.

I appreciate that this film didn't flinch from the source material and the culture that created it. That is, it isn't just violent and pagan but its values are violent and pagan: we see the characters as they were seen by those who created them. These mythic archetypes are not judged by modern values, nor do they engage in modern angst.

That said, the movie is a bit of a slog. It doesn't have a character arc, since developing character isn't a "thing" in this culture: you fulfill or fail your destiny. So it simply progresses with only one real surprise and only one real decision made. It's so rigorously programmatic it felt like a longer movie than it was.

 

TG expected to hold very strong with a 2nd weekend drop of 41%. $126,7 million vs $74.7 million.

The movie has already cracked $200 million domestic.

 

Box Office: ‘Top Gun: Maverick’ Becoming Tom Cruise Top Grossing Movie – Deadline Deadline as 68mil for the 2nd week, still impressive

 

Consider that the 1927 movie Wings won the the first Oscar given out by the Academy Awards for Best Picture in 1929.



I would say that established the role of the combat pilot in the movies.

Howard Hughes felt that aviation was a key element to motion pictures. He came on the scene with Hell's Angles in 1930. Hughes was later portrayed by DiCaprio in 2006's The Avaitor.

In 1970, there was the Movie Airport.

More recently, in 2006, Pearl Harbour was about two combat pilots during WWII.

Movie history is full of thrilling airplane movies, but only Tom Cruise is Top Gun!

 

Hey, I'm watching "Moonfall" now streaming on YouTube. It was a CLASSIC!!!


hahha

 

That chart is completely wrong. I was in downtown Tulsa and everyone was lining up at the mall multiplex to see "Downton Abbey: A New Era."

 

In our mall, there is a line of 80-year-olds waiting to see some romantic comedy that stars a 57-year-old actress.

It has been held over by popular demand.

 

Of course Sunrise won for "Best Unique and Artistic Picture" and most people would say is the superior film.

 

The Aviator came out in 2004 and Pearl Harbor came out in 2001.

 

Excellent word of mouth is translating into great box office returns.

TOP GUN: MAVERICK $86M Weekend (Est.) 4,751 Screens / $18,101 Avg. Weekend 2 / -32% Change $291.6M Total (North America)

TOP GUN: MAVERICK $257M Overseas Total / 64 Markets $548.6M Global Total TOP MARKETS: UK: $47.8M Australia: $23.4M France: $21M Japan: $21.9M Germany: $12.2M

 

A lot of amazing stuff going on at the box office. They're saying that Top Gun: Maverick could be the first billion-dollar film of Tom Cruise's career, and Dr. Strange just went past $900 million, which nobody was predicting (certainly not me):

Top Gun Soars To $549M WW, Doctor Strange 2 Crosses $900M, Jurassic World Dominion Bows With Early $56M – Deadline

 

As a parent who had to go see nothing but kids films for 13 years, any time a computer animated cartoon like Bad Guys does badly, I’m happy. I developed a Pixar, Dreamworks and Disney allergy. They could make “Spider-Man in the Mulitiverse Meets Toy Story” and I’d rather watch the Farm Report with the sound off.

 

Well, we got out to see Maverick. Strictly due to you guys liking it so much, and great reviews. I’m not really a fan of the first, though I have the utmost respect for Cruise’s acting chops.

I thought it was an entertaining film, and that’s “good enough” considering I’m not the target audience. My wife isn’t either, and she liked it. I’m usually pretty good at recognizing great music or film properties even if I don’t like it personally. Given that, I don’t really get the super charged reviews.

Still, certainly enjoyable enough and it was nice simply getting out and going to the theater again.