Predicting the Movie Hits & Bombs of 2022

Discussion in 'Visual Arts' started by Vidiot, Jan 7, 2022.

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  1. MikaelaArsenault

    MikaelaArsenault Forum Resident

    Location:
    New Hampshire
  2. thegage

    thegage Forum Currency Nerd

    Veering into religion here, but I'll just say that human interpretation of what's been "created" and how people should therefore act is an artificial construct imposed on others, including what is the definition of "family." What's most surprising to me is that a same-sex couple kissing does absolutely no harm to anyone else, yet there are legions of people who freak out about it.

    I can pretty much guarantee that Disney has infinitely better (see what I did there) market research about its audience and how that drives revenue in order to inform their decisions about product, than someone relying on an internet search of websites that only reinforce an outdated and narrow-minded point of view.

    JohnK
     
  3. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits, Abbie & Mitzi: Best Dogs Ever

    Location:
    Alexandria VA
    Spinoffs can definitely go either way.

    "Minions" was a huge hit, but the "Fantastic Beasts" series - a spinoff from Harry Potter - hasn't lived up to expectations. The first one did well on momentum, but each of the next 2 did worse and worse.

    "Lightyear" won't live up to studio hopes, but it won't flop either.

    It does feel like one of those "who asked for this?" properties. Doesn't seem like anyone craved a movie about the "real Buzz Lightyear"...
     
  4. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits, Abbie & Mitzi: Best Dogs Ever

    Location:
    Alexandria VA
    I also think that "Lightyear" naturally orients toward an audience that tends to resist animation: adolescent boys.

    It comes across like a sci-fi/action movie, and that points toward the male audience more than Pixar usually does.

    Filmmakers have shot for that crowd in the past with animation... and largely failed, with box office duds like "Titan AE" or "Treasure Planet".

    It's a tough nut to crack. Seems like kids in that demo view animation as for younger kids and they avoid it, as they want more "mature" material... like Spider-Man! :D
     
  5. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits, Abbie & Mitzi: Best Dogs Ever

    Location:
    Alexandria VA
    Wanna play that game, huh?

    So only movies with white, Christian heterosexual couples are allowed to show affection, huh?

    By your standard, that's "normal". Nothing else permitted! :sigh:
     
  6. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits, Abbie & Mitzi: Best Dogs Ever

    Location:
    Alexandria VA
    Shoes seem to fit.
     
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  7. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    Only glanced at the story. Total real grosses so far:

    Blame the fact that it doesn’t appeal to girls, blame Disney+ for stealing family moviegoers, blame the lack of an ensemble Toy Story cast, heck, blame everything as Disney/Pixar’s Lightyear didn’t do its magic by internal studio or industry standards this weekend with $51M, close to a third below its lowest $70M pre-release projection.

    So $51M is what Deadline is officially saying for domestic gross:

    Box Office: ‘Jurassic World Dominion’ Beating ‘Lightyear’ With $68M+ – Deadline

    No matter how it's spun, the reality is that nobody expected Jurassic World to do better than the new Pixar film. Deadline goes on to say:

    How else did Jurassic World Dominion whip Lightyear? I hear that Dominion had more large format availability and more evening activity than Lightyear, which helped the box office for the Colin Trevorrow film. Box office stat firm EntTelligence reports that Dominion had 51% of the premium format seats (PFS) to Lightyear‘s 43%. The presales in weekend 2 for the dinosaurs indicated this would happen. Four hundred Imax auditoriums generated 8% of Dominion‘s gross, with other premium large format (PLF) screens driving 11%. All in, all premium formats repped close to a third of Dominion‘s second weekend take, or $17M. Imax and PLF drove 24% of the gross for Lightyear. Next weekend, Disney gets all the Imax screens for the Angus MacLane-directed Pixar title.

    More headlines with similar stories:

    Pixar's 'Lightyear' Disappoints in Opening, 'Jurassic' Stays No. 1 - Variety

    Box Office Upset: ‘Jurassic World Dominion’ Roars Ahead of ‘Lightyear’ – The Hollywood Reporter

    Pixar's Lightyear Disappoints at the Box Office
     
  8. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits, Abbie & Mitzi: Best Dogs Ever

    Location:
    Alexandria VA
    I see your point, but I think that would've confused audiences even more.

    It's already confusing that it's a movie about the "real Buzz Lightyear", the person who inspired the toy.

    I guess. I've not seen the movie yet, so I don't even know if it's about an actual "space ranger" or a movie/TV series about "space rangers".

    I think it paints Buzz as a real person, not a movie character, but I could be wrong.

    I think this threw off audiences and made the whole prospect confusing.

    If they'd made everything look the same as "Toy Story", that would've blurred lines even more and added to the confusion.

    Ultimately, I think it's just a movie that didn't have any real pentup demand.

    I think there's an audience for Buzz Lightyear adventures based on the character in the "TS" movies - or the movies/TV shows that inspired the action figure - but it seemed like a stretch to make stuff with the "real Buzz"...
     
  9. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    Yeah, my take was "the film didn't do as well as expected because it's not very good, and Disney miscalculated on how much of the audience wanted to see it." The trailer made me yawn.

    That, too.
     
  10. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits, Abbie & Mitzi: Best Dogs Ever

    Location:
    Alexandria VA
    Got it. Only heterosexual couples are allowed in movies.

    Let's only depict one possibility for love. Let's make sure everything else is ostracized.

    :sigh:
     
  11. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits, Abbie & Mitzi: Best Dogs Ever

    Location:
    Alexandria VA
    Agree with the 2nd but not the 1st - at least not based on reviews from critics and audiences.

    77% critics RT, 86% audience RT.

    Those aren't stellar #s, but they're good, and they imply the movie's "disappointing" box office isn't because it's a bad movie.

    But I do agree it's just not a story that has a lot of inherent appeal - and as I noted in prior posts, it also just approaches its subject matter in a confusing manner.
     
  12. Isaac K.

    Isaac K. Forum Resident

    Exhibit A: Venom

    Exhibit B: Morbius

    Two Spider-Man spin-offs. One massive hit, the other a massive failure. They definitely go either way, it’s true.
     
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  13. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits, Abbie & Mitzi: Best Dogs Ever

    Location:
    Alexandria VA
    Bingo - and it's not because one was superior quality.

    Okay, "Venom" is a better movie than "Morbius", but not by a significant enough margin to influence the box office.

    Both are mediocre to lousy.
     
    Stormrider77 likes this.
  14. Ugh, it is ?? Now I'm lost.
     
  15. Synthfreek

    Synthfreek I’m a ray of sunshine & bastion of positivity

    At least three vile and garbage homophobes here. Not the first or second time I’ve read similar comments from these clowns. Why does the forum let these people stay?
     
  16. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
  17. PH416156

    PH416156 Alea Iacta Est

    Location:
    Europe
    Imho, the news of the day isn't that Jurassic beat Lightyear, but that Top Gun 2, in his 3rd week, yesterday only made $3.5M less than Jurassic in the US.

    I thought it would make decent money but didn't see it being such a monster hit, especially because so far it made $466M in the US vs $419M international...all that domestic money will make the studio very happy. Excellent! And I'm glad for the theaters, of course. That to me still remain THE place where movies can be fully enjoyed.

    Dr Strange now at $940M; let's see if it makes more money despite being available on Disney+ starting from Wednesday.
     
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  18. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Senior Member

    Location:
    Canada
    Around here, two adults + 2 kids, $50 might cover the tickets, add parking and if you want concessions $$...if money is tight Disney + is the way to go for sure.
     
  19. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Senior Member

    Location:
    Canada
    The movie Lightyear is what causes Andy in the Toy Story world to purchase a Buzz Lightyear toy.
     
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  20. MekkaGodzilla

    MekkaGodzilla Forum Resident

    Location:
    Westerville, Ohio
    America on Lightyear : "No Hanks = No Thanks!"

    :agree:
     
  21. For me it’s no “Tim Allen = no thanks”. Why didn’t he do the voice acting for this movie?
     
  22. tommy-thewho

    tommy-thewho Senior Member

    Location:
    detroit, mi
    Top Gun Maverick has really done well.

    800 million world wide.
     
  23. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Senior Member

    Location:
    Canada
    Very close to $900 million once the final numbers for the weekend are in, it's already become the biggest hit of Cruise's career.
     
    Boom Operator likes this.
  24. I completely missed that.
     
  25. Jord

    Jord Forum Resident

    Location:
    The Netherlands
    I grew up with the TS movies and I like the funny toy Buzz. However I have absolutely no interest in a "fake" realistic Buzz. What's the appeal? To watch a different version that behaves unlike the character you like?
     
    Boom Operator likes this.
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