Predicting the Movie Hits & Bombs of 2022

"Water" is also dominating "premium" screens and 3D. Those screens are more limited and people don't seem very interested in plain 2D for this one.

The opening weekend doesn't really matter. Neither "Titanic" nor the 1st "Avatar" had super-great opening weekends either, but they just. kept. going.

Maybe "Water" will severely underperform - dunno.

But I wouldn't base any predictions on opening weekend - not for this one.

 

That is exactly right, this ain't no superhero movie.

 

I appreciate this remark was posted in a thread concerned chiefly with film financials, but surely the success of such popcorn tentpole dreck as Avatar has a tremendous downside: the death of cinema, as Scorsese famously noted. I refer everyone to his defence (as if it were needed) of remarks he made in relation to the superhero 'cinema' of 2019:

Opinion | Martin Scorsese: I Said Marvel Movies Aren’t Cinema. Let Me Explain. (Published 2019)

I believe Scorsese's remarks are entirely pertinent when considering the multidimensional impact of Avatar 2 upon cinema in 2022.

 

Avatar 2 Box Office Disappoints With $134 Million, Less Than Half Billion Worldwide

 

Naaaa. I think that's a lot of bullspit. Out of the 50,000+ Hollywood films made since 1930, I would bet 2/3 of them are non-serious, populist, "movies" rather than serious "films." Do we dismiss all films that aren't serious, emotional, moving, and profound? If so, that's an awful lot of movies to flush down the toilet.

 

But for the past decade, high concept sequels based on established superhero properties that monopolise thousands upon thousands of cinema screens upon their debut (week after week) have come to define the business of mainstream cinema out of all proportion to the teetering balance eked out in years past. Cinema doesn't have to be 'serious, emotional, moving or profound' at all (which one might suggest is a lazy characterisation of Scorsese's definition of 'cinema' - which encompasses everything from Gene Kelly to Don Siegel to Mario Bava), but it typically doesn't consist of a perpetual menu of franchise sequels that avoid risk to ensure a return audience for Part 3. Or Part 4. Or Part 5.

 

SHAMELESS '30s MOVIE PLUG: Instead of watching an overlong, unsatisfying 'new' movie check out UNION DEPOT (1932). It packs a lot fun and a lot of plot into its 68-minute run time.

(And there wasn't a "Union Depot Part 2", either. ).

 

Worldwide weekend actuals for Avatar $441.6 million. That pretty much covers its production budget. I think we’ll see this leg out to $1.5-$1.7 billion worldwide which should probably be enough to get Avatar 4 into production.

 

Let's say the production budget is $400 million + $200 million for worldwide marketing = $600 million. They would need box office in the $1.2-1.4 B range to cover 100% of those costs, post-theatrical is where the gravy comes in. Cameron did say that the 3rd weekend will determine the future of this franchise.

If WoW more than covers production/marketing from the box office receipts I'm pretty sure they get the green light to finish #4 and get started on 5.

 

Not sure Weekends 2 and 3 can be viewed as "normal" since Xmas and New Year's cover both.

I assume theater going collapses Xmas Eve and NYE. Probably decent to good on Xmas Day and NY Day, but still feels like the entire weekend would be weaker than if Xmas/New Year's Day fell on a Wednesday, for example.

 

"Oh, you're right, and when you're right, you're right, and you, you're always right."

 

I don't know...I see superhero movies, and most action flicks, as kind of a roller coaster ride. Is Avatar not a fun ride?

 

Add to that Weekend 1 was a World Cup final.

Is it really a given that A4 and A5 get made due to diminishing returns.

 

‘Black Adam 2’ Not Moving Forward as Part of New DC’s “First Chapter”

Looks like it’s official that the The Rock’s ambitions around Black Adam are all but dead.

“The hierarchy of power did change at DC, just not in the way Dwayne Johnson intended it.”

 

Finally watched it last night. It was not a very good movie, which is too bad. I don't know where the making of it went wrong, but it's too bad Johnson's talents were wasted.

JohnK

 

this is funny

Edie Falco Thought ‘Avatar: The Way Of Water’ Was Released Years Ago – Deadline

 

Dwayne Johnson’s ‘Black Adam’ Sequel Won’t Be Part Of DC First Phase – Deadline

 

‘Shazam!’ Star Zachary Levi Responds To Claim He’s Being Recast Amid DC Universe Shakeup – Deadline

 

James Gunn Shoots Down Claim Gal Gadot Was “Booted” From DC Universe After ‘Wonder Woman 3’ Axing – Deadline

 

in the promo for this film,
Edie Falco
has been making
the rounds,
doing some TV.

Is it me or does she look younger now, then when she was married to "Tony"?

Very attractive woman.

 

Black Adam cut out thirty minutes at the beginning. Jump cut to Black Adam emerging.
Just saying …

 

I disagree and think your being too optimistic.

Firstly Disney are in financial trouble, they are not going to invest a billion if there is a risk they will lose millions. Declining returns can be expected from the later films.

Secondly you don't invest 600 million in anything just to break even and get your money back. That's not how studios work. They may as well invest it in others ways which would guarantee a return.

Sure studios take a risk and some films offset others but if you have a franchise which is clearly so costly that it is almost guaranteed to lose money or at the very best break even then it will be scrapped, regardless of who the director is.

 

Gunn is going to tweet an official timeline
after the 3 films
are released in the next year

It will be interesting to see what is included and what is not
probably will not be, until 2024, to see were Black Adam falls

 

Money seems to be in streaming .. HBO / Netflix etc

 

No , not in any way
all of the Streamers lost huge money this year except Netflix
who made money , but not enough

Netflix stock is still down more
then 50% from the start of the year