Predicting the Movie Hits & Bombs of 2022

Discussion in 'Visual Arts' started by Vidiot, Jan 7, 2022.

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  1. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Senior Member

    Location:
    Canada
    from BoxOffice Report

    Avatar: The Way of Water has passed the $800M global mark. The film grossed an est. $168.6M internationally this weekend (not including Monday). Estimated international total stands at $601.7M, est. global total through Sunday stands at $855.4M.

    It passed Thor/The Batman & Black Panther for 5th place overall in 2022.
     
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  2. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Senior Member

    Location:
    Canada
    Babylon will be one of the biggest bombs of 2022. A terrible domestic start, really bad weather in more than half the country didn't help. Production budget of $80-$100 million.

    Babylon grossed an estimated $3.5M over the 3-day weekend (from 3,343 locations). Estimated 4-day weekend gross is $5.3M.
     
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  3. Isaac K.

    Isaac K. Forum Resident

    Being released in China helps.
     
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  4. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Senior Member

    Location:
    Canada
    It doesn't hurt that's for sure even if movie theatre attendance in China is way down due to a major Covid outbreak and policy changes. It will be very lucky to match the gross of the first one not including the 2021 re-release ($204 million). It's better than $0.

    Top 12 markets up to Dec 25
    USA/Canada $253.7M
    China $100.5M
    Korea $53M
    France $52.3M
    India $37M
    Germany $35.7M
    UK $30.3M
    Mexico $26.3M
    Australia $20.4M
    Italy $18.4M
    Brazil $16.9M
    Spain $16.5M
    INTL $601.7M (70%) GLOBAL $855.4M
     
    Last edited: Dec 25, 2022
  5. Dillydipper

    Dillydipper Space-Age luddite

    Location:
    Central PA
    Eagerly awaiting the eventual sequel, Avatar: Now With Minions. :doh:
    [​IMG]
     
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  6. Johnny66

    Johnny66 Laird of Boleskine

    Location:
    Australia.
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  7. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
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  8. I think it will keep earning & have good legs. Theater I just returned from was packed, about a 50-50 mix of kids & adults. Personally I really dug the movie & the 3-D is so lifelike it's like standing in the scene, as the clarity was breathtaking. My Wife hated it, my Bratz loved it, so there ya go...
     
  9. Ghostworld

    Ghostworld Senior Member

    Location:
    US
    Go wife.
     
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  10. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Senior Member

    Location:
    Canada
    Way of Water will cross the $1 Billion mark today faster than the '09 original.

    from: BoxOffice report

    Avatar: The Way of Water grossed an estimated $31.5M on Monday (from 4,202 locations). Estimated total domestic gross stands at $293.2M.

    Avatar: The Way of Water passed the $900M global mark on Monday. The film grossed an estimated $52.2M internationally on Monday. Estimated international total stands at $661.9M, estimated global total stands at $955.1M.

    Est. international totals for Avatar: The Way of Water through Monday include:
    China - $104.5M
    France - $60.5M
    S. Korea - $55.4M
    Germany - $41.5M
    India - $39.2M
    U.K. - $33.1M
    Mexico - $27.6M
    Australia - $22.8M
    Italy - $21.8M
    Spain - $18.6M
    Brazil - $17.6M
     
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  11. Isaac K.

    Isaac K. Forum Resident

    Not at all surprising, inflation being what it is.
     
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  12. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Senior Member

    Location:
    Canada
    Avatar - The Way of Water

    Week #1 Dec 16-22
    Domestic: $197.68 million - 30%
    International: $463.9 million - 70%
    Total: $661.4 million

    Week #2 Dec 23-29
    Domestic: $160 million - 31.6%
    International: $347 million - 69.4%
    Total: $507 million - Drop of 23.3% over prior week

    Totals: $358 million Domestic - $811 International = $1.169 Billion
     
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  13. JAuz

    JAuz Forum Resident

    Location:
    US
    Yeah, I've never understood this when comparing releases from different times.

    Why not report ticket sales instead?
     
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  14. alexpop

    alexpop Power pop + other bad habits....

    Hoping it was gonna be a flop and JC went back to making interesting movies.
     
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  15. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Senior Member

    Location:
    Canada
    He's making exactly what he wants to make, like it or not.
     
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  16. Dillydipper

    Dillydipper Space-Age luddite

    Location:
    Central PA
    How many of those is he still working on? Two? Three?

    Is he going to save multidimentional audience formats, or are we gonna go back to Smell-o-Vision, and attaching battery cables to theater seats?
     
  17. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    Cameron is on record as saying that Avatar 2 and 3 are completely shot already, and they have a year of post-production to go through in order to finish 3 by December 2023. Part of Avatar 4 is already shot (the first part of the movie) because the kids were getting older. He says if 2 & 3 do well, then they'll do two more films. If 2 doesn't do as well as expected, then Cameron says he has a plan to change the ending of 3 to provide a definitive conclusion to the saga. It's made about $1.2 billion as of today, so if they kept making $200M a week, they could slide to $2 billion in a month. My guess is they'll be lucky to hit $1.5 billion.

    It's fair to say that "Premium Format" theaters are a big part of the Avatar box office, and it's a rare film that gets released in 3D and 4K and Dolby Vision and IMAX and High Frame Rate. If you've seen the film, you'd understand why they felt it was necessary to pull out all the stops in order to show audiences something they'd never seen before.
     
    Last edited: Dec 31, 2022
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  18. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    Oooooh, some rough statistics here:

    Box Office 2022: The Biggest Hits, Flops and Takeaways - Variety

    Disney missed the mark with its two animated features, “Strange World” and “Lightyear,” both of which bombed at the box office and likely lost more than $100 million a piece. Their collapse spells trouble for family features, which had been one of the most reliable theatrical demographics before COVID upended things. There were also several attempts to launch or extend new franchises that collided with audience indifference such as Warner Bros.’ “Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore” (it turned out that nobody cared about where to find them); “Black Adam,” which saw DC’s new leadership announce that Dwayne Johnson’s anti-hero would not play a role in the next phase of its universe building; and Lionsgate’s “Moonfall,” a disaster flick that cost more than $140 million to produce and earned a catastrophic $67.3 million.
     
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  19. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Senior Member

    Location:
    Canada
    I'll take the OVER by a mile on that bet :wave: . It should pass Top Gun Maverick by Tues or Wed $1.489 B. I'm seeing long range forecasts in the $2B range up to Titanic level $2.2 B



    Week #1 Dec 16-22

    Domestic: $197.68 million - 30%
    International: $463.9 million - 70%
    Total: $661.4 million

    Week #2 Dec 23-29
    Domestic: $160 million - 31.6%
    International: $347 million - 69.4%
    Total: $507 million - Drop of 23.3% over prior week

    Totals: $358 million Domestic - $811 International = $1.169 Billion
     
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  20. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Senior Member

    Location:
    Canada
    The latest WoW update. Totals up to Jan 1 = $1.37846 Billion. Currently 2nd for 2022 releases and 16th All-Time (unadjusted for ticket price inflation).


    Avatar: The Way of Water grossed an estimated $63.44M over the 3-day weekend (from 4,202 locations). Estimated 4-day weekend gross is $82.40M. Estimated total domestic gross through Monday stands at $440.52M.

    Avatar: The Way of Water has passed the $1.3 billion global mark. The film grossed an estimated $186.7M internationally this weekend (not including Monday). Estimated international total stands at $956.9M, est. global total through Sunday stands at $1.379B.

    Est. international totals for Avatar: The Way of Water through Sunday include:
    China - $152.8M
    France - $95.1M
    S. Korea - $74.9M
    Germany - $67.2M
    U.K. - $54.2M
    India - $49.3M
    Mexico - $37.3M
    Australia - $34.3M
    Italy - $30.5M
    Spain - $28.3M
    Brazil - $23.6M
     
  21. Crack To The Egg

    Crack To The Egg Forum Resident

    Location:
    OR
    You have to admire Cameron for calling this pre-release.

    And here we are three weekends in and now even the haters have to admit it’s not a bomb. Probably not as big as the first, but this still has until February to dominate the box office. It will be the biggest post COVID era film by a big margin and James Cameron did it once again.
     
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  22. ggg71

    ggg71 Forum Resident

    Location:
    Boston, MA
    You almost have to feel bad for Cameron - it's like if the film he makes ISN'T the biggest film in history people call it a bomb! :)
     
  23. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Senior Member

    Location:
    Canada
    Spider-Man No Way Home is the biggest post-Covid title with a w/w gross of $1,916,306,995, Top Gun is 2nd. Long-range forecasts for A2 are fairly certain now that it will cross $2B and maybe get close to Titanic $2,201,647,264. It has zero chance of reaching the levels of the first one partly due the $USD rate of today vs 2009-10. I'm sure some analyst will crunch the numbers on the loss.
     
  24. Maggie

    Maggie like a walking, talking art show

    Location:
    Toronto, Canada
    It's actually 2 more years of post-production to finish by December 2024.

    2 and 3 were shot simultaneously because they were originally one very large script. They got split in two when it became clear that the exposition alone setting up the film was going to run to almost an hour of screen time.

    The action scene that concludes The Way of Water was essentially the "act 1 action scene" in the original* script for Avatar 2.

    (* not "original original" -- an entire 2010ish Cameron script for Avatar 2 was discarded before the current Jaffa/Silver version was developed)
     
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  25. Crack To The Egg

    Crack To The Egg Forum Resident

    Location:
    OR
    Ugh, I forgot about No Way Home.
     
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