Predicting the Movie Hits and Bombs of 2014

Discussion in 'Visual Arts' started by Vidiot, Jan 1, 2014.

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  1. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    Well, that didn't take long.

    Movieweb and Business Insider have posted the following list of 14 Hollywood films they believe will bomb this year:

    The Legend of Hercules (one of two Hercules movies opening this year)
    Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit (a reboot of the franchise starring Chris Pine)
    I, Frankenstein (a "re-imagining" of the legend, starring Aaron Eckhart)
    Pompeii (and I often say that historical costume dramas are a tough sell to modern audiences)
    Divergent (new sci-fi film based on the bestselling teen novel)
    Edge of Tomorrow (Groundhog Day meets Aliens, starring Tom Cruise)
    Jupiter Ascending (new Wachowski sci-fi epic)
    Guardians of the Galaxy (based on the sci-fi comic book)
    The Maze Runner (also based on a teen sci-fi novel)
    Dracula Untold (another retelling of the Bram Stoker tale)
    Interstellar (new Chris Nolan SF epic)
    Annie (new all-black version of the Broadway musical)
    Maleficent (live-action version of the story of the evil queen from Sleeping Beauty)
    Robocop
    (remake of the 1980s SF action film)

    They provide some pretty solid reasons as to why each film will bomb. I agree with a lot of them basically on being unable to answer the question "who is the audience for this picture," but I have high hopes for Interstellar. I think so little is known about the film, plus the fact that it's not a remake or based on an existing novel, it's much too early to predict.

    Of all of the above, I've only seen trailers on I Frankenstein, Divergent, and Edge of Tomorrow, and all three strike me as being in the "OK, not great" category. There's a big difference between a movie being a Lone Ranger-sized bomb ($250M+) and just being a $50M fizzle. And I'd go on record right now as predicting that Spiderman will be a big hit, plus the trailer looks terrific and there's clearly a built-in audience for the film. I'm a little less positive about the new Captain America, but I'm rooting for Joe Johnston because I like the director's work, and I enjoyed the first film. I also expect that the upcoming X Men: Days of Future Past will do well, but maybe not billion-dollar well.
     
  2. JerolW

    JerolW Senior Member

    Let the games begin.

    jerol
     
  3. MekkaGodzilla

    MekkaGodzilla Forum Resident

    Location:
    Westerville, Ohio
    I don't care what magazines, newspapers or bloggers have to say about upcoming movies.

    Not one dollar is spent until I get the full three sentence preview from Mirrorblade.1.
     
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  4. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    Hey, at least the armchair critics and pundits didn't slam Godzilla. I still say the movie won't make dime one, but if it turns out to be a good film, I hope it does well. I just get a "been there/done that" feeling from the trailer, particularly after seeing a movie as well-done as Pacific Rim only do so-so in the market.
     
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  5. Driver 8

    Driver 8 Senior Member

    I've seen the previews for Frankenstein and Robocop, and just based on that evidence, I would expect both to bomb, although you can never under-estimate the taste of the teenage male action movie audience. But both looked really bad.

    I say Maleficent succeeds just because of the star power of Angelina Jolie, plus, as we learned last year with The Great Gatsby, women are very often the decision-makers when it comes to going to the movies, and they will do anything to avoid going to see action crap like Robocop.

    I take issue with MovieWeb's analysis of Divergent:

    because I don't recall moms and dads having any idea who Katniss Everdeen and Peeta Mellark where before the Hunger Games was turned into a movie. I'm not saying Shailene Woodley? has the same star power as Jennifer Lawrence, or that Divergent will be as big a hit as the Hunger Games, but I've seen the trailer, and it didn't look totally awful, and I wouldn't necessarily bet against the latest young adult book franchise turned into a movie: Twilight and The Hunger Games have done well, and, again, from the preview, I would think that women would rather go see a film with a young female lead than some of the other sci-fi/action pictures coming out this year.
     
  6. Driver 8

    Driver 8 Senior Member

    I saw the trailer for Godzilla the other night and it also looked absolutely horrible. But, again, it's hard to under-estimate the taste of the action picture viewing audience.
     
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  7. Standoffish

    Standoffish Smarter than a turkey

    Location:
    North Carolina
    :biglaugh:at them predicting a Tom Cruise action flick will flop. I see they referenced the domestic grosses of his last two films. How quaint.
     
  8. Michael

    Michael I LOVE WIDE S-T-E-R-E-O!

    I hate it! It will bomb! It sucks! I have to like it before anyone else can! How could anyone watch this! He can't act!, she can't direct! the editing sucks! Oh no, another remake! it will suck I know it! I don't have to see a new release to know it will suck! that should about cover it! :laugh:

    just having a little fun.
     
    Last edited: Jan 1, 2014
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  9. Guardians of the Galaxy is going to need a very smart marketing campaign if it has any chance at box office success. It was just about the last Marvel property I expected to get made.
     
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  10. Thurenity

    Thurenity Listening to some tunes

    I don't agree about Divergent, at least going on my daughter who's read the books. Built-in audience = a good chance for a win, assuming they don't completely screw it up.
     
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  11. Yankee8156

    Yankee8156 Senior Member

    Location:
    New York
    Yeah, I guess I could see those being flops. The Jack Ryan movie and Interstellar maybe a little less so. I know I've got no interest in any of them.
     
  12. Michael

    Michael I LOVE WIDE S-T-E-R-E-O!

    it doesn't matter...if they do not like the actor they are a talentless bum who can't act and does not deserve their fame...:laugh:
     
  13. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    I agree -- the trailer actually looks pretty good, and I think the concept is reasonable. But starting a new franchise from scratch is tough. I saw the recent Hunger Games movie and kinda yawned... but I'm not the intended audience.
     
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  14. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits, Abbie & Mitzi: Best Dogs Ever

    Location:
    Alexandria VA
    I get your point, but I think "Godzilla" has an advantage "PR" lacked: massive name recognition. And it's clear what the movie will be: humans fighting a giant lizard. The ad campaign for "PR" made it look like a "Transformers" movie...
     
  15. Driver 8

    Driver 8 Senior Member

    As Thurenity noted, they're not trying to start it from scratch: as with Harry Potter, Twilight, and The Hunger Games, there's apparently a build-in audience who knows the story from books. That doesn't mean every film based on a young-adult book will automatically succeed - The Golden Compass didn't launch a successful movie franchise - but they're not "starting from scratch."
     
  16. Driver 8

    Driver 8 Senior Member

    Which is why I won't go see it. :D

    However, from the preview I caught the other day, they held off showing the lizard until the very last second, and then, when they did show it, it looked really weird, not at all like the iconic Godzilla that we remember. I'm not really going to predict either way on this one, although I suspect that, while most people under 30 may indeed recognize the name "Godzilla," they have no real first-hand attachment to the previous movies or to the concept. Maybe they won't care that it doesn't look like the old Godzilla, maybe they won't care about the movie at all. We shall see.
     
  17. Thurenity

    Thurenity Listening to some tunes

    I think what he meant was that the movie franchise is being built from scratch - they have an audience but if they screw it up (perfect example that comes to mind is "The Last Airbender") then there could be a major backlash.
     
  18. Driver 8

    Driver 8 Senior Member

    Based on the preview, it didn't look any dumber than The Hunger Games movies, and there's a big-name actress (Kate Winslet) involved to give it some grown-up cred: I really have no idea just how popular the book series is, and I'm sure this movie could fail, but I don't see it as a sure-fire flop.
     
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  19. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits, Abbie & Mitzi: Best Dogs Ever

    Location:
    Alexandria VA
    My feeling is that whether or not "kids" have a connection/attachment to the Godzilla franchise, the name will get the movie attention/publicity "Pacific Rim" lacked. "PR" was a movie from a cult director that included no "name" stars and looked like a mish-mash of other movie franchises. Not saying it couldn't or shouldn't have disappointed at the box office, but it lacked the easy "saleability" of "Godzilla".

    Call a sci-fi action flick "Star Wars Episode VII" and it gets way more attention out of the box than the same movie would receive if it was called "Cosmos Adventure" or whatever. Brandnames get built-in publicity...
     
  20. I'm hoping it does well but it's not exactly well known.

    I don't think "Interstellar" will do "Dark Knight" business but will be between the likes of "The Prestige" and "Inception".
     
  21. Driver 8

    Driver 8 Senior Member

    This is the preview I saw in the theatre: when the guy in the opening seconds says "we're sending you in via halo jump," I initially thought it was a trailer for a movie based on the Halo video game. You don't see Godzilla until the last second, the rest of it looks like a mish-mash of other sci-fi laser gun movies, just like the new Tom Cruise movie. Maybe you're right, but, based on this preview alone, I don't see them doing a very good job of exploiting the brand name recognition of the previous Godzilla movies.

     
  22. ridernyc

    ridernyc Forum Resident

    Location:
    Florida, USA
    I think this year is going to be hard to predict.

    If the first few films out of the gate are going to follow the same carbon copy action cookie cutter that many of them did last summer it's going to hurt every single action film this summer.

    I'm really hesitant to see any new action movies this year because I feel like I saw the same exact movie 4-5 times last summer. By the time I got around to Man of Steele I was totally burnt out on it and fast forward through portions of the film.

    I think Guardians of the Galaxy is a sure fire hit. People have been trying to predict the death of the Marvel franchises for awhile now and have been wrong everytime.
     
  23. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits, Abbie & Mitzi: Best Dogs Ever

    Location:
    Alexandria VA
    It's a teaser - they just want to give you a hint of what you'll find, and they don't want to reveal too much of the creature itself.

    I think it's a pretty good ad. It lets you know a new Godzilla film is coming and adds some new elements.

    In any case, a trailer for a Godzilla movie doesn't NEED to be as clear in terms of story/characters as something for a totally new concept does because we already have of what a "Godzilla movie" will be. When we see trailers, we automatically try to compartmentalize the movies into genres, but when it's part of a franchise, that's not as necessary. A preview for a Godzilla movie can toy with expectations because at the end, we'll go "oh - it's a Godzilla movie!"

    "Pacific Rim" was tougher to compartmentalize and I think that was an issue...
     
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  24. Driver 8

    Driver 8 Senior Member

    I do wonder whether people under 30 have the same automatic assumptions about what "a Godzilla movie" is that we do. I guess everyone does recognize the name. We shall see. I didn't see anything that made me want to run to the theatre, but it's not my genre to begin with. My prediction here is neither flop nor hit, but a solid average box office by the standards of today's sci-fi/shoot-em-up movies.
     
  25. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits, Abbie & Mitzi: Best Dogs Ever

    Location:
    Alexandria VA
    All I know is this: if the new Godzilla song doesn't have a score by Cliff Richard and Oasis, NO SALE!!!
     
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