Are psych/prog RECORDS losing value?

and they will continue to fall after the Boomers are boomed...the sentimental value will be ash.

 

Who'd have thought the most valuable record is not by The Beatles

The 10 most expensive vinyl records ever sold | hmv.com

 

Yeah, those are just the public auction sales, some truly heavy stuff trades privately.

 

True; I have a freind who trades 'Northern Soul' singles privately and what he has paid for some stuff astounds me!
As far as the 'singles' market goes Northern Soul has got to be up there as one of the most collectable genres!

 

This is simply irresponsible and inaccurate. Over the last year I've poured every red cent into my IME & maxed my IRA contributions with returns that now have me 4.5 years ahead of my retirement plan at age 25. If you're looking toward collectibles as an investment option as the world is gearing up for sustained global economic expansion post-COVID, then you must be taking financial advice from an SHF music forum.

 

I can't say I agree with the OP. As a matter fact, the vinyl resurgence in my experience is only causing rare/unknown psych to further rise in price as less and less copies are up for grabs and people start to get desperate to own a copy. I kick myself now for not buying all 3 originals of the 13th Floor Elevators LPs when they were only about $100-$200 a couple years ago. Now, try $350+ each... And that's not even that obscure, but they are definitely coming up less often on ebay and discogs, and I doubt many want to part with their originals now.

One of my long term record collecting goals is to own an original pressing of ever International Artists LP ever put out. It's getting quite difficult to even find originals, let alone pay the prices people are asking. I check ebay now and then, and most of the titles I haven't found yet pretty much never come up for sale. And none of them can be found for under about $100 now. Even the titles that were $50-$75 records in VG/VG+ 2 years ago, like Bubble Puppy, Lost And Found, Red Krayola etc are now $100 records in G+ condition.

Not sure how long they will continue to rise though. Trends of vintage/antique items tend to follow the retirement age in their pricing. As the boomers retired and started buying back the things they owned in the 60s/70s, the prices went up. Pretty soon, 80s records will be the new expensive era. It's the same thing with classic cars. 15 years ago, 50s cars were the crazy expensive ones, and 60s/70s muscle cars were still relatively cheap. Now, the 50s cars have dropped in value and the 60s/70s cars are soaring in price.

It sits around until I come along

 

Hmm...do krautrock albums count?

 

Condition is definitely getting more and more important. Genesis is an excellent example because some records aren't necessarily "rare" but if one wants them in anything approaching NM condition then hitting the bins probably won't do.

As for the op: I think the more obscure prog stuff that only appeals to people because it's scarce and not necessarily musically interesting might have hit a peak. Still I don't see them "losing" their value. But the "canon"? The albums that are loved and collected by people under 50? Nope. These will continue to be sought after. Prices will reflect this. A development not exclusive to prog btw. Beatles, Led Zeppelin, The Doors, Can, Amon Düül II..... stuff like that won't loose it's value.

 

I see stuff skyrocketing almost across the board. The pandemic has driven prices of clean originals of every genre I follow through the roof. Blues seems to lag slightly. Spiritual Jazz has quintupled.

*this is buying and selling. I have sold clean titles at near record prices in a matter of hours.

 

Yeah I noticed that too. I figured that vinyl was plateauing and 2019 would be the last big year, and things would start to really die down. I would have never guessed that a worldwide pandemic would send vinyl sky high again, even more than before. It makes me wonder how long until things do start to fade. Can’t last forever, it’s a bubble.

 

The really crazy vinyl price inflation is from '92 onward, but seems to have accelerated with records from the last few years, I don't know the music, but numerous records my niece has bought on release in the last two years are now selling regularly for four or five times what they cost on release, some records she bought less than two years ago are regularly selling for £300, I bought a used record I thought she might like, I think it came out in 2017 for £10, she didn't want it so I stuck it on eBay, it sold for £130. Modern stuff is where the crazy action is even if a dinosaur like me finds it difficult to accept something released last year fetching more than a mint 50 year old LP by one of the greats. The question is what happens if people who are twenty something now maintain their interest and in twenty years are still chasing current pressings, but have a lot more disposable income, just how high will prices go if they are already hitting three figures?

 

True - also the Music Matters jazz reissues - bought most of those for around 30, sold them for over 100 - some 150-170, (although got ripped off by one buyer).

 

Can't seem to find any cheap - especially not Can or Cluster. I'd accept the first Spoon reissues for Can, but they're not cheap either.
Reasonably priced choices seem to be Spoon SACD sourced vinyl for Can, and Russian Lilith reissues for Cluster.

 

I think 80s and 90s cars will be the next big one to start blowing up in price. These are the cars millennials and younger gen X grew up lusting after. I have noticed 50s, 60s, 70s cars stagnating or going down in price unless we're talking timeless cars like Ferrari 250GTOs, even those might decline as people no longer looking to have "complete" Ferrari collections.

Lots of millennials and younger gen X have got really rich off volatile instruments like Bitcoin, Tesla and options in tech stocks since 2016. I tried my hand at options in 2016 in the tech resurgence and turned a small learning account into several lifetimes worth of music and vacation budget, even a blind monkey could have done it with leverage and a booming tech sector.

I think when boomers start to pass away is when a flood of items will start to hit the market. Lots of millennials and younger gen X I know simply have zero interest in "cheesier" music like prog. I was playing a needle drop of the Mofi One Step Yes Fragile and my friend jokingly asked who the female singer was.

I am really surprised to hear what the OP wrote about psych though, there is a massive new music psych scene that people are really into but I don't know if they are into the 60s and 70s stuff or not. This newer psych is more experimental than guitar driven rock.

Jazz is also having a resurgence with younger people. If you watch 90s and early 2000s sitcoms listening to jazz was a butt of the joke.

 

The most important psych/prog record dealer in Canada predicted to me that prices would fall on most all with exception of really clean British bigname Zep,Sabb...
Alright - granted this was some 15-20 years ago and I'm not sure what happened since - say during the economic collapse which was, what, '92???
(That is the reason for my post. To find out what better minds think on this.)

Speaking of collapse:
I'd say this dealer specialized in Krautrock. He knew Euro prog/fusion inside out. But his one area of void was South America. I "taught" him what he was missing out on ; mentioned lps/bands. Some two months later I'm at his apartment and he proudly pulls out two boxes full of top South America/Mexico origionals. It was all there - Kaleidoscope, Alamendra, El Reloj.....

In the 90's Argentina "collapsed". Then you could get $200 Argentine rock lps for $40. Peeps were selling off their collections...to survive.

Desparate times call for desparate measures.


Yet, in our complacency we fortunate ones smugly meep Zappa's line, "It Can't Happen Here. No, it can't happen here."

I don't wish it on anyone , but do you not yield the contingency that , after the 20th covid wave, your sealed Plastic Cloud lp will be worth less? (Or that even talk of a sealed Plastic Cloud will be moot?)

There is a BBC program I'm sure most of you are aware of called Antique Roadshow. Furniture,pottery,books,posters,records,jewelry... After the expert gives his current price evaluation of an item, they bring a value to the screen some few years back to compare what happened to worth in the interval.

Watch it.

It might just open your eyes to what the future may hold for your treasured baubles.



But, then again, worth is not everything.

 

Indeed, I get the impression the vast majority of people on this forum listen to and enjoy their vinyl. That's the great thing about it compared to collectibles you just stare at. I almost feel guilty owning some of the cars I do because I only put less than a few hundred miles on some of them in a year.

One of the lesser known amusing rock albums I like is Dr Z's Three Parts to My Soul, the UK Vertigo LP sounds much better than the harsh sounding CD. So here you have a nice collectible LP that you can also enjoy. Still Life's self titled is another and I'm dying for a great sounding digital reissue of this. I imagine there are many examples like this where an expensive LP also sounds great or is the best sounding version available regardless of format.

Fortunately with genres like delta blues we have great labels that transfer these ultra rare 78s to CDs with full surface noise and vibrancy of the music intact and we can enjoy them for sane amounts of money.

 

I’m probably in the minority then, being 22 and having a couple thousand dollars worth of original pressing psych in my collection
I also have gotten very into jazz the past year or so. My generation seems to not really care what’s “cool” in my experience. I mean hell, most of the stuff I buy besides food/some clothing comes from thrift stores or is second hand. We can’t usually afford to care. Sure there are plenty of exceptions, especially among millennials who were part of the .com boom. I do have friends who are into records like myself, but they definitely stay clear of the more obscure stuff. I think that comes down to having to seek out this stuff though. I mean I had to consciously dig deeper to discover anything more obscure than Pink Floyd/King Crimson. I figured that was about as psychedelic as music could get... I think my peers probably feel that way because most don’t bother to dig.

I definitely agree, a lot of markets are going to be flipped upside down when boomers start to pass on. Not just with vintage items. The housing market is likely to come crashing down too. Plenty of people in my generation have basically written off ever owning a home, and many don’t think it’s ever going to be possible. I actually was talking to a couple friends about this yesterday. We all anticipate a housing crash in 2-10 years due to both boomers passing on, and another economic crash. We all are basically waiting for that to happen before we buy. I mean it sounds morbid, but boomers dying off is what will cause this stuff to lose value I think. I’ve been wanting a 67 or earlier VW bus since I was a kid in the early 2000s. I’ve seen the value of them soar during that time. You know who cares about 60s busses? Boomers and older. The generation who owned them back then. I don’t really see gen x/millenials/gen z caring much for 60s vehicles and cars in general. I’ve gone off on a tangent here, but hey, guess what was there when psych was big in the late 60s? VW busses

 

All good points, age wise I'm mostly only familiar with older millennials/younger gen X, I think 22 would be a bit too young to have saved up much to dump into these high risk instruments. My partners are baby boomers and they're significantly more conservative with their finances. It's just been my experience that "new money" were the ones to spend it more freely, so I mentioned the people that were got super rich in the last 5 years and why those 80s/90s era collectibles are the ones that have seemingly gone through the roof and into the stratosphere.

I've never really gave a damn about what others thought either. The first time I heard the other worldliness of A Love Supreme I was in love.

 

One does not know, when they leave the abode to go somewhere, that they will even return home. Ya can't live life that way. Personally, I pay whatever I want based solely on whether I am willing to pay X for something I want. Price does not really matter. (To a degree). If my valued treasures are worthless 30 years from now - so be it. I enjoyed them thats what mattered. However I am pretty sure that, no matter how obscure 20th century popular music may become someday, there will still be a number of people that care about it. And thats all it takes.

A note about antiques road show. Been into antiques since I was a kid, as is wife-person. We roll our eyes not only at how inaccurate some value or auction estimates are (both too high and too low) but also the retro value 'today.' Lots of erroneous information there. My friend got onto one show. For kicks he brought some uber historic civil war era telegraph equipment worth an easy 40 to 50 grand. Every expert there shrugged and estimated maybe $50 0r $100?

 

My feeling is that the bubble is colored vinyl repressings. There are few enough original Blue notes to sustain and build value. As long as people have ears.

 

Prior to Pandemic we had no time for Nostalgia. Now Nostalgia is becoming king. In a way its a mini revolt against the untangibility of the computer.
We cant go into the future - and most don't want to cos its not farfetched to think the future is attended with ugliness and peril - so we go back . People are knitting, reading,baking,playing board games, puzzles... "28 per cent of Brits have reconnected with a past hobby or interest since the Covid-19 outbreak."

Late 60's were not an easy time, especially for youth in America. In Britain ,for that meagre 2 year period of the Psychedelica, youth were going back to the comfort of childhood. Piper at the Gates of Time took root, Alice. Gentleness and a cocooning to an imaginary Arcadian paradise fantasy world..to escape the harsh realities of everyday life. Back then as it is now. The music became twee, comfortably juvenile - "toytown", Grocer Jack - how many songs about contented village life. This was Popsike. Flower children in colourful fabric, London men all sporting bright scarfs...Retiring to the countryside. The folk scene retiring as well.

Brits were always into horror literature and ghost stories - A Ghost Story for Christmas and all that. But its interesting that after the war they ceased to be drawn - for a whiles - by this genre. They had had enough darkness.

 

When I visited my favorite used vinyl store last week, the owner said that almost no one asks for psych records anymore. On the other hand, 90’s music, hard rock and heavy metal from the 70’s and 80’s was up. A lot of pop, synth, new wave etc from the 80’s sells quickly. And there are many buyers of maxi singles.

Psych, Jazz and a lot of the 60’s records sit on the shelves for a longer time.

One of my friends is now selling all his psych records because he lost interest in that kind of music and he is now listening to jazz from the 50’s and 60’s instead. ”I want to get rid of all the psych records before it is too late” as he said.

 

'92? Nope. People were still unloading vinyl at firesale prices in '92. The turnover point is closer to '00 or later.

 

What I mean is records released from 1992 onward, that's when many vinyl issues became really difficult to find when new and pressing runs were very small and vinyl was generally limited to pre-orders, as you say many people were offloading their record collections for CDs, new vinyl was where the supply was tight.

 

Ah, got it. Yeah, '92 (or in some cases even a bit earlier) is the cutoff point.