I still think you're lowballing the estimate a little bit, latest Domestic tracking numbers suggest (see below), if the reviews are solid and word of mouth is A or A+ (Cinema score) these ranges might grow even more. A domestic final of $526 million would probably equal a w/w total around $1.75 Billion, $741 million domestic around $2.5 Billion + whatever it makes in China. 12/16/2022 Avatar: The Way of Water $150,000,000 – $180,000,000 +13% incr. from last week $526,000,000 – $741,000,000 +13% incr. Long Range Box Office Forecast: AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER Tracking Climbs as Pre-Sales Reinforce Expectation for a Marathon Run Avatar: The Way of Water continues to ramp up marketing with increased social impressions and engagement over the past two weeks since tickets went on sale. Combined with positive pre-sale trends and consumer sentiment, forecasts are beginning to shift toward the mid-to-upper of tracking ranges — the upper bounds of which are showing signs of expansion due in part to higher average ticket prices than recent blockbusters. A leggy run, on top of a potential all-time top 4 or 5 debut among December releases, remains highly likely. The pace of back-loaded post-preview sales for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday are beginning to align more closely with the likes of Top Gun: Maverick rather than the Thursday-heavy trends of franchise films from Marvel or The Batman.
I realize that. My numbers are deliberately on the conservative side. Maybe to the point of a worst case scenario. But that's OK, if they make $1.4B, then they will be profitable. I think that they will do that and more. On top of that, all of the other Christmas releases really bite...
You just know it won't be as good as the original.......... I'll pass, and might catch it on TV in a few years.
Cameron's track record on sequels is pretty good (Aliens / T2), he knows how to build & expand on the base of the original and take it into different areas.
He was hired as the special effects co-ordinator and given director reins to finish the movie when Mike Drake quit due to creative differences with the producer, Cameron ran into the same problems. I wouldn't count this one on that basis, he had no input on the story.
I Don't really expect a fellow director and friend to give an objective review. He says it looks wonderful but that's really not enough these days. Most films have great CGI so you just tend to take it for granted as it's a bit like a video game. I'm really unsure how thus would go. I didn't care much for the first one, it was ok but I have no desire to watch it again, and the IP hasn't really become part of popular culture, so I have no idea if there is a huge fan base waiting for this or the hype will just put bums on seats. Given how much it cost to make and how much they are spending on promotion it will need to take billions just to break even it seems.
The Weeknd lands the theme song for The Way of Water and the team has arrived in London for the premiere on Tuesday.
I agree with this, here's the exact quote from Guillermo. https://twitter.com/RealGDT/status/1595872890251276291?cxt=HHwWhsDToYf81qUsAAAA A staggering achievement- AVATAR TWOW is chokefull of majestic Vistas and emotions at an epic, epic scale. A master at thepeak of his powers…
I happened to meet Cameron's partner at the Fort Lauderdale film festival, in the late 90's. Jon really is an unpretentious nice guy.
Nice to see Sam Worthington back for a return to Pandora after all these years. Got my 3D tickets for 12/21 on a Wednesday matinee when it shouldn’t be crowded.
The blue carpet has been rolled out in London for the premiere happening now. If this movie fails at the box office it won't be for lack of promotion. Disney spending a LOT of $.
Early press is through the roof positive... 'Avatar 2' First Reactions Praise James Cameron Masterpiece - Variety ‘Avatar: The Way of Water’ First Reactions: “A Visual Masterpiece” – The Hollywood Reporter “Happy to say ‘Avatar: The Way of Water’ is phenomenal,” wrote Fandango’s Erik Davis. “Bigger, better & more emotional than ‘Avatar,’ the film is visually breathtaking, visceral and incredibly engrossing. The story, the spectacle, the spirituality, the beauty – this is moviemaking & storytelling at its absolute finest.” “Happy Sad Confused” host Josh Horowitz raved, “James Cameron once again shows filmmakers how it’s done. I’ve said it a thousand times. Never doubt him. ‘Avatar: The Way of Water’ is how you do epic blockbuster-ing. Emotional, visceral and as big as movies get.” “I had faith James Cameron would raise the bar with the effects but these visuals are mind-blowing,” Collider’s Peri Nemiroff added. “One stunning frame after the next.”
I am pumped for the release here Stateside. Cameron always delivers, and this film will be epic in many ways. Cannot wait to sit back and experience this soon! -
To 3D or not to 3D that is the question (never bothered with 3D on the original). I am pretty jazzed for this tho.
The original does look magnificent in 2D, both at home and in the theaters. However, Cameron's 3D movies are not run of the mill 3D, they are something else altogether. Don't miss out on this one in 3D!
I’ll be watching it on 3d as it was meant to be then rewatch on 2d if i like it. To piggyback on your post, To iMax 3D or Dolby Cinema 3D? Leaning towards Dolby.