CD's Gone By 2020?

Discussion in 'Music Corner' started by Fannymac, May 22, 2019.

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  1. Mr Bass

    Mr Bass Chevelle Ma Belle

    Location:
    Mid Atlantic
    The labels are the ones who will decide when they exit mass CD production. Amazon is just adjusting to the marketplace. However I now think this exit be be much earlier than I would have thought even a year ago - not in 2020 but 2021 - 2022 seems highly likely. They are issuing big box after big box in classical music which indicates to me that there is a schedule already in place or notional at the labels to say you have the back catalog so sayonara.
     
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  2. marc with a c

    marc with a c Forum Resident

    Location:
    Orlando, FL
    CDs still tend to sell fine at my shows, when fans want something to take home with them but don’t want to shell out for/aren’t into vinyl.

    Can’t speak for others, but my last album? We’re well into the third CD pressing, but still haven’t sold the first 1000 records, when it’s usually the other way around for my (admittedly very specific) lil lo-fi releases.

    It’s so hard to predict right now that I cannot even get the proper amounts pressed for each format at present! As always, your mileage may (and will) vary.
     
  3. mwheelerk

    mwheelerk Sorry, I can't talk now, I'm listening to music...

    Location:
    Gilbert Arizona
    Back at the local shop this weekend and I noticed two more complete racks of CDs were gone. I spoke the store manager and just asked about things. He said that anything in CD inventory more than 18 months was being clearance. I asked about sales and though he didn't know the exact figures he said in their chain (7 stores total) that it was at least about 50/50 CD's to Vinyl and more new Vinyl was sold then CDs. Unless I'm looking for current pop/rock its almost a waste of time to go and try and find what I want. After 50 years my flipping through albums may be coming to an end sooner than I thought. In fact I probably do more buying online now than local to be able to find what I want. I'm not pissed off about it. It is a change of the guard a change of times. I'll miss the good old days but that just part of the trek through life.
     
  4. Norco74

    Norco74 For the good and the not so good…

    Perhaps the new business case for future CD manufacturing will be pre-order based.

    Look at what happened to the latest Tangerine Dream boxset. It looks like they underestimated the pre-order quantity. A second run is already in the works a few weeks after the official release date.

    Steven Wilson working on 5.1 mix of Tangerine Dream's Phaedra?
     
  5. DEAN OF ROCK

    DEAN OF ROCK Forum Resident

    Location:
    Hoover, AL
    WTH, who will we buy them from????
     
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  6. TheLazenby

    TheLazenby Forum Resident In Memoriam

    Location:
    Pittsburgh
    I hope not, I'm tired of the digital-only albums.

    Dammit, I want the Beach Boys' archival stuff on CD's.
     
  7. Jrr

    Jrr Forum Resident

    Or, you could just get a turntable. :D It’s incredible this is happening. I could have written the same post around 1989 when the vinyl jig was clearly up. I went over to the cd side but not with a smile on my face. Music for me is a blast again. Vinyl is a much better format if your willing to go through some extra effort, and I get it that most prefer not to. The art is so much better, and if you have the right equipment so is the sound but it’s a lot more work to get there.
     
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  8. tomd

    tomd Senior Member

    Location:
    Brighton,Colorado
    I got back into vinyl in ‘13 and after getting about 300 albums/singles purchasing an excellent table and phono stage I have to say I’ve almost completely lost interest in it.More of my purchases have been used vinyl cause the labels (especially outside of Rhino) just have NOT reissued what I want.Would love to see more 80’s alternative,Downtempo,good soundtracks,classic 80s 12” singles,45 RPM albums but most of what we get now is aimed at 20 somethings in colored vinyl.In other words labels do NOT think outside the box.Having a much better time purchasing early 2000s Downtempo compilations and garage/indie bands on cd believe it or not for rock bottom prices.
     
  9. Mr Bass

    Mr Bass Chevelle Ma Belle

    Location:
    Mid Atlantic
    I think you have to know there is no chance of those kind of albums being reissued. I would have thought though that there is a plentiful supply of them apart from 45rpm albums. I see more than a few of the 80s issues still available sealed if you insist on New.
     
  10. tomd

    tomd Senior Member

    Location:
    Brighton,Colorado
    True.There’s not much chance of those being offered in Hirez either from streaming services -why I stay away from streaming.Upside is I can put more money into upgrading my home stereo/sound quality.I DO love the occasional vinyl reissue of older classic albums where nearly every track is good but I prefer cd for compilations,Greatist hits,and albums NOT originally issued on vinyl.
     
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  11. strippies

    strippies Forum Resident

    Location:
    Netherlands
    175 days to go...
     
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  12. Scott Davies

    Scott Davies Forum Resident

    This feels like such a mistake. Everyone love to tout the benefits of vinyl but it boggles me that it's the in-thing to bash CD's, considering their resiliency and their general ability to last for a very long time in perfect sound. I just got this super rare CD a couple days ago. It cost me $300 and was only available in Japan in 1987. I've played it several times and it sounds as good as the day it came off the line 32 years ago. One play with a bad stylus and your vinyl is damaged forever. Maybe one day people will wake up.

    [​IMG]
     
  13. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits, Abbie & Mitzi: Best Dogs Ever

    Location:
    Alexandria VA
    The only reason I could see to go to Japan to buy CDs would be to hit used shops and see what one can find. I suspect you'd find lots of goodies in the used bins for relatively low prices you wouldn't be able to get online.

    Still would never go all that way just for CD shopping! If I ever get to Japan, I'd certainly hit some shops, but I think I'd like to actually see the country as well! :D
     
  14. DRM

    DRM Forum Resident

    Yes to 1989. That was the last year I used my turntable. I then went to cassettes until 1994. And then moved on to CDs. But in 2014 I went back to cassettes except for the occasional CD purchase. Black and white thinking is easier sometimes but doesn't reflect reality. Some may want it to be All or None and end date certain formats. But it's not necessary or the way things actually are. Unless you have to have things very clear cut in your mind and find it hard to live with some ambiguity and messy Real Life.
     
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  15. Jrr

    Jrr Forum Resident

    Well, the theme of this thread is that cd’s are going away so I was pointing out to the poster that vinyl can be an alternative to skipping new releases all together. With all the cds most of us own, it seems like we’ll have to do what you suggested....accept both. There is no way all those cd titles will be rereleased on vinyl so we’ll have to embrace both if we want new music on a physical format, and continue buying moving forward.
     
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  16. Musical Chairs

    Musical Chairs Forum Resident

    I keep saying this until I am blue in the face, but I will repeat it again: While the decline of the CD is undeniable and a near certainty to continue for the foreseeable future (and perhaps forever), the raw numbers are far and away higher than they were for vinyl/cassettes/8-tracks/reel-to-reels in the terminal phase of their decline. They are far and away higher than vinyl in the vinyl revival. They are competitive with downloads. They are bigger than plenty of niche markets companies still serve.

    If CDs were to go away in the next year or two, that would not be a purely market-driven decision. It would be a top-down decision by the labels to abandon physical media for streaming.

    Streaming may well be the wave of the future. But it won't displace nearly 100 percent of physical media by 2020 or 2021 entirely on its own. If CDs do disappear, it will be a repeat of the labels accelerating vinyl's decline rather than simply allowing it to transition from mainstream to niche product.
     
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  17. Norco74

    Norco74 For the good and the not so good…

    Depending on what you are looking for, used bins stuff there is not cheap...:shake:
     
    Last edited: Jul 10, 2019
  18. Jrr

    Jrr Forum Resident

    The labels accelerating the demise of the cd is exactly what is going on, though in this case I think consumers started it and as luck would have it, it was at a good time in that there was just enough interest in vinyl that I think they were willing to throw the dice and give it another shot WHEN they discovered we were dumb enough to pay $25 each on average. This is exactly what happened before. Cassettes and vinyl were going for cheap prices and cds were retailing for $18.98 so $16.99 was pretty much what they went for on the street. Once they took off the other two cheaper formats quickly disappeared. They won’t have the huge windfall this time they got with cds, but between streaming revenue which I read is getting substantial, and $25 albums that are really not expensive to make, I’m sure they would love to see cds go away now. If that happens more will get into vinyl, but it’s hard to believe it will really be significantly more. Another sign I see to back up my conspiracy theory is the incredible number of some pretty obscure catalogue titles coming out quickly. They really seem to be suiting up for a complete change over. One format is much better for both retailers and labels since I don’t see the demand for two physical formats. When I owned a record store having to stock the same title on 2-3 formats was such a revenue drain. The demise of the cd, I’m sure, will be welcome by the retail community.
     
  19. Jrr

    Jrr Forum Resident

    You say perfect sound. A lot of people agree. But many people here would also disagree. I hate the sound of most cds. There is a significant difference between the sound of a well pressed vinyl album played on a decent set up and most cds. I own about 2500 cds and about the same on vinyl, so I certainly know. Because vinyl came back, I stopped buying cds around 2010. However, if you prefer the sound of digital audio then your point is well taken.

    Oh, and I’ve never had a vinyl album wear out. Yup, I’ve damaged a few. But I have thrown away many cds damaged by my cd changer in the car back in the day, or by being careless and not putting it back in the case. Both will last more than a lifetime if taken care of.
     
  20. Scott Davies

    Scott Davies Forum Resident

    As much of an audiophile that I am and have always been, I've never been able to hear any sort of negative result of the "digital" sound of CD's (when properly mastered). I hear no harshness, just clarity. Some very old CD's sounded thin and bright but that was down to mastering and sources, not the format. Vinyl reproduction is only as good as your stylus, and without a microline stylus, your always going to get obvious inner groove distortion. Even ML's aren't prefect on certain pressings but it's the closest you're gonna get.

    And the whole old argument about vinyl is "warmer" has made me detest that word in that context. I think most people who think vinyl sounds better have simply convinced themselves of it as a defense mechanism because scientifically it's very easy to show how inferior the format is. It's little more than preference, or being sucked into the fad, rather than fact. But considering most vinyl pressings for some time now are mastered from digital sources, the "vinyl sounds better" argument is more confused. The defensive will say "How do you know most vinyl is mastered from digital". Unless you are a specialty label specifically requesting (and being approved for) tape usage, you're getting a digital file to work with. While others say "So what if it's mastered from digital, I think it sounds better pressed on vinyl". Sure, because adding that background turntable rumble/drag and surface noise is a real bonus. And we (should) already know that when it's advertised as "remastered from original tapes", unless it says "100% analog", you are getting a transfer to digital of the original tapes.

    My vinyl collection has grown considerably over the past 5 years, mainly because I don't have anything new to buy so in a desperate attempt to keep some form of physical media excitement and collecting going, I will pick a band I love from 35+ years ago and start buying their whole vinyl discography. And the only new vinyl I buy are old albums put out in colored or special editions, but even that has lessened. I am one who believes the decline of CD to be driven by the labels because physical media production is a process and requires people and money rather than streaming that requires no one really. But since people often fall for the hype, they decide to step away from CD if they are convinced it's inevitable. As a physical format, CD is the best most resilient out there, unless you're one of those (some of those I know) who toss your CD's around, don't give them any care or put them back in cases, and then wonder why they skip.

    Streaming is a convenience for some, and it's surprising anyone on an audiophile forum would disown a proper physical format in favor of convenience. Personally, I think of those people as fake in an audiophile community. Whether lossy or lossless, streaming rather than owning a collection is counter-audiophile. You can argue with that but the logic seems obvious and will always be my viewpoint. Much of my music is on my phone for certain situations but I always want my physical copy as well.
     
  21. chervokas

    chervokas Senior Member

    Streaming is not just a convenience. It's also a money saver for people interested in new and different music -- there's no incremental increase in cost to try out new or different music, vs. having to buy the new or different music, piece by piece, on hard copy to be able to hear.

    Also it's not anti-audiophile. Audio quality is not depended on a physical container for the music. 16/44.1 FLAC via streaming is just as good sounding as redbook CD. High res lossless streaming is just as good as high res downloads from an audio POV.

    Audiophilia is about audio, not about owning physical media like CDs or LPs, that's record collecting. They're two different things -- audiophilia and record collecting. There may be a lot of crossover among audiophiles and record collectors, but they're not the same hobby or interest.

    I have thousands of LPs and thousands of CD, maybe 3-4K LPs and more CDs than that -- which I acquired over the last 50 years because that was what I had to do to hear the music, not because I had an interest in ownership of those particular records or CDs. Now I don't have to buy the hard copies not to hear new and new-to-me music. That's enormously freeing to me, especially since, in a given year, there are dozens and dozens of new albums I want to hear and dozens and dozens of old recordings I've never heard before that I become interested in. I might only listen to those once or twice, or once or twice in 10 or 20 years. Or listen to them a lot for a few months or a year, then put it away for a long, long time. Now I don't need to own and hold those forever or pay for them each individually. It means, actually, than now I hear more new and different music every year than I have since I was a kid. It's a huge boon to the music lover.

    Also, I didn't do much streaming until 16/44.1 FLAC streaming became an option because of the audio quality, so it's not like audiophiles throwing over CD for MP3. Or even audiophiles throwing over vinyl for early digital. The audio quality is there now for streaming.

    You're conflating audiophilia and an interest in records or record collecting. I have a deep abiding interest in music, and a deep interest in audio, and not much interest in record collecting -- I'm not obsessed with having any particular the physical object related to the music, I'm not interested in this pressing or that pressing, I'm not generally interested in the cover art. I DO care about the sound. But I listen to plenty of music with crummy sound, because, you know, if you want to hear Son House's Paramount side or King Oliver's Gennett sides, or Pablo Casals '30s recordings of the Bach cello suites, you're not ever going to hear those performances in audiophile quality. And you know, I'm old enough to remember the days when audiophiles were big into radio tuners as a source as much as vinyl or reel to reel because, it was just another source of interest to the audiophile -- over the air music, not only music on records or some other hard copy.

    There are a lot of people who are really into records and having this particular copy of this particular record and they love hunting around for records and such. But that's not the same thing as being an audiophile. That's being a record collector, most of whom, in my experience, have pretty crummy audio setups. In the Venn diagram of record collectors and audiophiles there may be a substantial area of overlap, but each group still occupies it's own circle.
     
    Last edited: Jul 11, 2019
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  22. Gaslight

    Gaslight ⎧⚍⎫⚑

    Location:
    Northeast USA
    I'm not convinced that Amazon is doing anything purposely.

    They sell things. I don't think they care if it's a CD, SACD or a cassette as long as they make money. If you want to direct your concerns to anyone, it would be the labels themselves that are likely pushing to shutdown pressing plants, making smaller runs and/or using the CDR format only.

    On the latter item, agree that there should be more transparency there (I've heard that sometimes Amazon will sell a CDR where its not stated in advance that's it's a CDR. Or so I've read).
     
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  23. chervokas

    chervokas Senior Member

    Streaming revenue is not just "substantial," last year it was 75 percent of the revenue in the US recorded music industry, upwards of $7 billion from streaming in a $9.8 billion total industry. CD and vinyl combined only accounted for around 11 percent of industry revenue. Vinyl really isn't a big factor in the demise of the CD or a big driver of record industry revenue (vinyl sales generated around $420 million in the US last year, vs. nearly $700 million for CD and $500 million for album downloads -- taken together, those formats generated about 20% of the revenue that streaming generated, they're a relatively small and for the most part shrinking sector of the music business in the US. Vinyl sales of course aren't shrinking, but even after 10 years of growth, the revenue from them is still a relative drop in the bucket). There are, of course, other big music markets, like Japan, where physical media remains much more popular and streaming hasn't nearly totally displaced physical media as it has in the US in terms of industry revenue.

    The record companies would love to turn back the clock to 1999 when the industry in the US was not a $10 billion dollar industry but a $22 billion industry (on an inflation adjusted basis), and CD sales alone generated $19 billion accounting for almost 88% of industry revenue. But everyone knows in the network media world, those days are gone and the industry needs a network centric way to make money from recorded music because that's how consumers access media today.
     
    Last edited: Jul 11, 2019
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  24. Gaslight

    Gaslight ⎧⚍⎫⚑

    Location:
    Northeast USA
    The whole "CD's Gone" premise is about new CD's / new releases.

    Even if this happened in 2020, which I doubt, you'll still be able to pickup used CD's for many more years to come.
     
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  25. Scott Davies

    Scott Davies Forum Resident

    I figured you'd be one of the first to reply. I have to admit that I take your postings lightly because you seem to be the number one pro-stream/anti-CD futures activist on this forum. It's seems to be your mission. Perhaps on a personal level the change works best for you. I seem to recall a posting in which you admitted you didn't take particular care of your CD's and many of them were damaged because they were not necessarily put back in cases or handled with care. You can disagree but I find that behavior very non-audiophile. It doesn't take much to keep media in stellar condition. Perhaps the appreciation of physical media, even from just a collector standpoint, comes from being able to handle carefully and keep in excellent shape.

    And we can differ on our views of the audiophile definition. How many people here play their vinyl with a substandard stylus or connected via USB on their PC? I would consider that a fan as opposed to an audiophile, and there's nothing wrong with that. But I do see looking for the ultimate sound quality and collecting media to go hand in hand with being an audiophile. Some people have collections that span an entire room but not necessarily for listening. Some people are just collectors. It's like a wine connoisseur who often has a fine wine rack or wine cellar. That's how I view the term audiophile. I'm not the same with movies though. I'll happily download a 4 GB HD copy of a movie rather than buy a blu ray at this point, unless it's of specific sentimental value. And while I am somewhat OCD about video quality as well, it's not a passion like music and I wouldn't consider myself a videophile.
     
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