Predicting the Movie Hits and Bombs of 2014

I have a tough time predicting hits and bombs until I see the trailer. Those trailers are very telling, especially now when everybody can access them so easily.

I do much better predicting which films will be bad. Divergent looks pretty rotten, and I like The Hunger Game series so far....

Shalom, y'all!

L. Bangs

 

Americans love this type of movie. I expect a modest success at the just-below-Bourne-Legacy level.

I expect this will be a modest international success like Oblivion.

They're on the money about these. Floppo.

The Marvel/Avengers promotional machine practically guarantees this $200 million domestic.

No way this will bomb. It won't do Inception-sized numbers, but I expect it will be a moderate hit.

There is success potential if the studio uses it to counter-program a big franchise picture.

This looks better than the Total Recall remake, and has an amazing cast, but I don't think the audience is there.[/quote]

 

Was the release date of 'The Monuments Men' moved from the Christmas holidays to February 7th?

I'm very interested in seeing this. I wonder if they felt the movie would just get lost amongst the holiday blockbusters. If nothing else I thought they would want a 2013 release to ensure Oscar consideration.

Is February a film release graveyard?

 

Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit (a reboot of the franchise starring Chris Pine)

I'm looking forward to this.


BTW, is the next 'Bond' film due in 2015?

 

This is an interesting one. I've seen the preview several times, and it certainly has a big-name all-star cast: Clooney, Damon, Bill Murray, etc. However, the "let's save the art from the Nazis" storyline seems like something you would expect to see at the theatre in the 70s, not in 2014, and the preview sure didn't make me say "I have to see this," although I generally like historical films.

On the other hand, Tarantino has had recent success with (an edgier?) take on the World War II picture with Inglorious Bastards, so who knows?

Maybe Clooney's and Damon's star power saves this, I don't know.

 

It's an interesting move, since I had figured that the movie would be an awards contender. Even if the market for potential nominees would be crowded, I'd figure that they'd just push the movie back to next fall if they believed in it strongly. I'm guessing that they don't.

 

Nice to see you have so much free time on your hands. I could go back and quote plenty of negative posts from this section of the board that you've made...but frankly it's not worth my time.

 

Donald Sutherland as the archetypal hippie, about 25 years ahead of his time. Clint Eastwood's sneering "what is that?" at their first encounter is one of cinema's more sublime moments.

 

Clooney claimed that the movie is an entertainment with no awards ambition, so he was fine with it coming out after Oscar season. But when a movie gets bumped to the January-February dead zone the suspicion is always that it's a stinker.

 

Ah, I see. I was just assuming based on the subject matter and cast, and the tone I got from the trailer. Oh well. I hope that it's a decent movie, I like those guys.

 

they forgot Noah…..I saw death by water, I see mind numbing stupidity coming soon

 

Sutherland's portrayal of an active combat officer commanding a tank crew on the battlefield in 1944/45 Europe as a beatnick/ hippie [named 'Oddball'] is perhaps the weirdest, most anachronistic 'artistic' choice I think I've ever seen an actor in a film be permitted to get away with. Every time I see that film I can't believe that's going on.

 

I don't think we can view Jan/Feb as "dead zone" any longer. February has spawned a fair number of hits over the years, and when "Paul Blart Mall Cop" turned into a smash a few years back, studios started to see the potential for January releases.

Yeah, studios do still dump supposed stinkers in January, but they also plan some potential hits for that period, so I no longer assume "January = crap"...

 

If Paul Blart Mall Cop does well in January, that's one thing, but when a high profile movie from George Clooney gets bumped to February it still raises alarm bells.

 

Yes, it was supposed to be out for Academy consideration before Xmas, but Clooney reported that the visual effects and the music weren't done yet, and he didn't want to rush it. A big-budget WWII film like is going to have a lot of effects, and if you can't buy the visuals, you won't buy into the 1940s timeline.

 

It's beyond weird. Then add that he's a remarkably adept and enthusiastic tank commander and the entire concept spins off into some rarefied realm of comedy. To stay On Thread, why not just re-release this in 2014?

 

I have to say, both are on my list. Not good. But Bay at least is energetic, and his movies are never boring.

I gotta admit, that kinda blew my mind when I first saw Kelly's Heroes. "What is a late-1960s hippy doing in World War II?"

 

I'd like to see Terrence Malick take a crack at a remake or sequel. I think we'd have a better sense of the 'inner Paul Blart' through v.o. as he walks through the parking at dusk.

 

That'd be the whole movie: Blart as he muses about the nature of humanity while he looks for kids throwing rocks at cars in the parking lot!

 

Maybe - it doesn't worry me, though. Sometimes it's better to hold a movie for a theoretically more advantageous release date.

And maybe "Titanic" was the exception that proves the rule, but there was a movie that got delayed due to all sorts of production problems but still did okay for itself!

 

What Squealy said. There's a world of difference between Paul Blart, Mall Cop and a prestige Clooney/Damon historical drama. Based on the preview, I think Monuments Men would have benefitted from family viewing during the Christmas/New Year's season, as I suspect Saving Mr. Banks has; I don't think moving it to February means it can't be successful, but it's not a positive for the movie in any way.

 

We'll never know if it was "positive", though, as we'll never know what would've happened to the film if it'd come out in December 2013 instead of February 2014. If it bombs, you can claim it would've been a hit in December, but we don't know that - it might've bombed worse. If it's a hit, you could claim it would've been a BIGGER hit in December - again, it's impossible to say.

My point about "Blart" is that it showed studios that January didn't need to be the "garbage time" it'd been viewed as being for so long.

February hasn't been nearly the "dumping ground" anyway - there's nothing overtly odious about February release dates, as that month has shown commercial prospects for decades...

 

More like it confirmed that January was garbage time.

 

I would say January is still a dumping ground as far as "I, Frankenstein" is concerned, if the studio had any faith in the film it would be a late spring/early summer release. It's the 2013 version of "Hansel & Gretel Witch Hunters" which was also released during this same timeframe last year and quickly vanished.