Predicting the Movie Hits and Bombs of 2016

Not sure if all of these will be hits relative to production costs, but these are the 2016 movies I'm looking forward to at this point....

Jan. 29th, Jane's Got a Gun, Western starring Natalie Portman
Jan. 29th, The Finest Hours, big budget World War II survival drama based on a real story
March 4th, Whiskey Tango Foxtrot, War comedy starring Tina Fey and Martin Freeman
May 13th, Snowden, Oliver Stone directs
May 27th, Alice Through the Looking Glass, I might be the only person here who still like Depp?
May 30th. USS Indianapolis, Another WW2 disaster drama
June 17th, Finding Dory, Pixar
July 1, The BFG, Spielberg's next film
July 15, Ghostbusters, written and directed by Paul Feig
July 22, Star Trek Beyond, didn't like the trailer, but....
Aug. 12, Ben-Hur, epic remake
Sept. 23, The Magnificent Seven, another remake
Sept. 30th, Deepwater Horizon, might work
Nov. 4th, Doctor Strange, don't usually bother with superhero movies, but for Cumberbatch....
Nov. 25th, The Founder, Michael Keaton stars as Ray Kroc, founder of McDonalds
Dec. 16th, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, 32 year old Brit Felicity Jones does a prequel of 19-year old Carrie Fisher's role?
Dec. 21, Passengers, Jennifer Lawrence in sci fi epic

 

You thought "Ant-Man" was bland? I really liked it - I thought it was one of the better Marvel flicks...

 

Update...it's $529M worldwide. US opening isn't $238M and change but a whopping $247,966,675

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=starwars7.htm

 

Yeah, but that pay for advertising they forced everywhere?
We will see..

 

Wait - are you trying to opine that "Force Awakens" won't make a profit? When it made more than half a billion dollars in a weekend???

 

And think of the merchandising and licensing deals.

 

Profit yes but not as high as they wanted .. They wanted higher profit than
There Marvel movies.. I say the almost sank almost half billion into all there marketing
Campagins.. radio, tv.. I surprised they didn't have a Drones or Starwars Blimp
fly over every city with star wars lighted banner..
And movie quotes from the first movies blaring from huge speakers
attached to underneath the blimp..
I was thinking Bladerunner about the star wars blimp...

 

It's going to make a gigantic profit. $250 million for a December opening is unprecedented -- even with inflation taken into account. The only thing that remains in question is whether it will beat Avatar on the all-time domestic chart. It'll be a challenge, but even falling short of that by $100 million (which I now doubt it will do, since the reception has been so positive) they will have incredible profits on their hands.

And the merchandising is another story, bringing in what will probably amount to billions of dollars.

 

Well, if you add the purchase price of Lucasfilm to the cost of the Force Awakens, then we're looking at a movie that cost well over $4 billion. It'll probably take 3 new Star Wars movies to make back that kind of money....

 

By the time they are done producing Star Wars product the $4 billion will seem like a steal…..chump change really in the long term big picture.

 

As of Dec 21 - SW stands at $288,076,417 after setting a Monday record of $40.1 million. After its first two weeks Avatar was at $283,624,210 and finished its 34 week!!! run at $760,507,625. Star Wars might be at $500 million by the end of this weekend and if that's the case Avatar is going down hard.

 

Shouldn't the movie's theatrical run end before you declare what a bomb it was?

 

I saw it but was prepared for the worst... and I was pleasantly surprised that it was as good as it was. It was what I'd call an "OK" film -- not awful, not great, but an acceptable 2-hour adventure. Michael Douglas just about made the movie to me, because he was intense enough that he kind of raised the script a couple of notches. I was very surprised when the movie made over $500,000,000 worldwide.

Don't forget the toys and the theme park rides. I think Disney will get five times their money back on the purchase of Lucasfilm... and that's just for the Star Wars stuff.

 

Tarzan has a weird, artificial, "plastic" kind of look that I really dislike:



I'm skeptical about Jungle Book being a hit, either, but that's me.

 

Tarzan looks pretty terrible, it's like he's being turned into another superhero - yawn. More than anything, this film looks like a Planet Of The Apes offshoot!

 

I've been playing Warcraft games since the mid 90's. Blizzards cinematics have always been excellent. The movie however doesn't look good from the trailer, I'll still watch it though.

 

My prediction, this will be HUGE hit for Disney in March ...



With rare exception (ergo The Good Dinosaur) I prefer PIXAR over Disney's animated films.
That said, in the theater prior to the new Star Wars flick the packed audience (mostly adults) laughed out loud when this trailer was shown.

My gut feeling is that this will bring in crowds.

Given the cleverness of this trailer, it probably should be a PIXAR release (proof to me that Disney has consumed most of the relevant talent from Pixar).


Cat

 

Well it might squeak by. There's no accounting for studio accounting

 

Disney has owned (consumed) Pixar for quite some time now (since 2006).

 

$500 million in two weeks would be incredible. Not that it's implausible at this point, but that kind of take would be so far beyond what I could have predicted that it really shows me to be more out of touch than I thought.

 

My guess is that The Force Awakens will not pass Avatar in world-wide box office. It's very difficult to get to 2.8 billion. And, adjusting for inflation since 2009 that would be more than $3B today.

 

Apparently Pete's Dragon won't even be a musical (?!).

 

Three, in fact!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Jungle_Book#Adaptations

• Rudyard Kipling's The Jungle Book (1994) – starring Jason Scott Lee as Mowgli. The second Jungle Book film produced by Disney.
• The Second Jungle Book: Mowgli and Baloo (1997) – starring Jamie Williams as Mowgli.
• The Jungle Book: Mowgli's Story (1998) – starring Brandon Baker as Mowgli.

 

I wish that they would drop "A Star Wars Story" off of the title of Rogue One. It sounds so cheesy.