Predicting the Movie Hits and Bombs of 2017

As far as Under performance in terms of box office, we do have a major holiday that might prop it up a bit.

 

Saw "Wonder" (Lionsgate) yesterday with Julia Roberts, Owen Wilson, and Jacob Tremblay (that little boy who lived in that "Room" with Brie Larson, thus winning her an Oscar) and thought it very good..

 

Not mentioned (as far as I know) is their newest, "Daddy's Home 2", starring Will Ferrell, Mark Walhberg, and Linda Cardeliini (earlier seen this year in "The Founder") with Mel Gibson and John Lithgow, which I enjoy very much as well as (as I said) "Wonder" (see later reply).

 

Wonder looks like a very good, well-made film -- I hope it does well.

 

No, the final film was all color-corrected at one time over a period of about 3 weeks. Same with the sound mix. What is true (and a few very sharp critics have noted this) is that the trailer from about 6 months ago had a different look, different color, and even different backgrounds in some shots. I would bet that's probably the look Snyder was going for, and Whedon -- who supervised all the post-production chores this year -- made the decision to go in a brighter direction. I don't have a problem with the look of the film at all; I think it looks a ton better than Man of Steel or Batman vs. Superman.

 

No matter how small its budget was, the charming and good little movie Wonderstruck seems to have a date with red ink....

Wonderstruck

Domestic Total as of Nov. 16, 2017: $920,723
Distributor: Roadside Attractions Release Date: October 20, 2017
Genre: Drama Runtime: 1 hrs. 57 min.
MPAA Rating: Not Yet Rated Production Budget: N/A

Total Lifetime Grosses
Domestic: $920,723
Domestic Summary
Opening Weekend: $65,882
(#37 rank, 4 theaters, $16,471 average)
% of Total Gross: 7.2%
> View All 4 Weekends
Widest Release: 261 theaters
In Release: 28 days / 4 weeks
The Players
Director: Todd Haynes
Actors: Julianne Moore
Michelle Williams

 

Probably going to see this one today. Looks like it might eventually post a small profit....But, if they they they might launch a series with this, I'm no so sure.


Murder on the Orient Express (2017)

Domestic Total as of Nov. 17, 2017: $42,003,362 (Estimate)
Distributor: Fox Release Date: November 10, 2017
Genre: Thriller Runtime: 1 hrs. 54 min.
MPAA Rating: PG-13 Production Budget: $55 million

Total Lifetime Grosses
Domestic: $42,003,362 37.9%
+ Foreign: $68,783,508 62.1%
= Worldwide: $110,786,870

 

'The Last Jedi' will no doubt totally dominate the holiday period.

 

It actually gets two major holidays. We have Thanksgiving this week. Everyone will be off this weekend. I am off for 5 days.

 

I was wrong! Wouldn't be the first time....It's now up to $155 million, and seems likely to go to $200m. The movie has some legs.

'Murder on the Orient Express' Sequel in the Works (Exclusive)

 

Latest word is the movie cost about $55M and has made $150M worldwide, so for a non-blockbuster movie, they're not doing too badly. Reviews have not been great, but also not terrible.

I'm astonished by the Star Wars fans who claim they hate this and also vow not to see the J.J. Abrams movie that follows. Jesus, it's just a movie. I fully expect Last Jedi will go through the roof and do a billion dollars, easy. Trailers look terrific so far.

 

If TLJ doesn't break all opening-weekend records I'll kiss a Wookiee.

 

I don't see it doing as well as The Force Awakens.

 

It might break the opening weekend but I can't see that it's going to make more money than TFA in the long run
My Star Wars interest has gone downhill after The force awakens and I have a big screen at home. I can't be only one who's a bit tired of all these big and loud CGI movies. I didn't see Rogue one until it came out on blu-ray.

 

I can arrange that!

I think it could if it generates more repeated viewings (i.e., if it's actually really good).

 

Star Wars - over/under the $248 million 3 day opening of The Force Awakens?? Finishing with $936 million domestic.

I'm going under on both $215 on the opening and $800 million domestic total.

 

Agree. "TFA" capitalized on built-up "Star Wars" anticipation - it'd been 10 years since the last movie.

Also, it benefited from the fact it was much better received than the prequels - that brought in a lot of people turned off by the 1999-2005 films.

Of course "Jedi" will do great, but it's the 3rd "Star Wars" in 3 years, so it's not the same kind of "event" as "TFA"...

 

I think The Force Awakens exhausted the remaining goodwill leftover from the Original Trilogy generation of fans. I have much less enthusiasm for Disney's continued Star Wars films after seeing Rogue One and TFA. I'm certainly not going to see this new one in theaters and I say that as someone that still dearly loves the Original Trilogy.

The new one will do well but the days of a new Star Wars movie being a uniquely special movie event are over.

 

I can arrange that!

I think you grossly underestimate the size and importance of the new fans from the last 30 years who weren't around at all when the original films were out. Time has a way of marching on, and pop culture tastes constantly shift and change.

Notice I'm not saying the movie's gonna be worth a damn, but I think it'll get OK or better reviews and make a huge amount of dough. Will it be my kinda movie? Eh. I thought Force Awakens was good and had some decent moments, but wasn't anywhere nearly as good as Lucas' original films. But I strongly disliked Lucas' prequels, and I think Force Awakens was better than those.

I'll top the worldwide gross by 20%: I say it'll do at least $200M domestic and $1 billion worldwide.

Box Office: ‘Star Wars: The Last Jedi’ Tracking for Stellar $200 Million Opening Weekend

 

Well, the year's not over yet, but like Blake in Glengarry Glen Ross, I'm going anyway. The box office year in review:

Horror Pays Off Big-time:
It - $35m budget/$688m gross
Annabelle: Creation - $15m budget/$306m gross
Happy Death Day - $5m budget/$99m gross
Jigsaw - $10m budget/$90m gross
Rings - $25m budget/$83m gross
Resident Evil: The Final Chapter - $40m budget/$312m gross (91% of gross was foreign)
Totals: $1,578m grosses on $130m budgets .

Out Of Nowhere Hits:
Everything, Everything - $10m budget/$62m gross
A Dog's Purpose - $22m budget/$196m gross
Girl's Trip - $19m budget/$137 gross
Gifted - $7m budget/$41 gross

"What Were They Thinking?" Flops:
Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets - $177m budget/$225m gross. Did we learn nothing from John Carter, Hollywood?
King Arthur: Legend of the Sword - $175m budget/$148 gross. Hiring a semi-famous, mediocre TV actor to helm a huge budget fantasy flick...did we learn nothing from John Carter, Hollywood?
Geostorm - $120m budget/$205 gross (mostly foreign). Gerard Butler...'nuff said.
Kidnap - $21m budget/$31m gross. Halle Berry...'nuff said.
Alien: Covenant - $97m budget/$241 gross. Not a big flop, but didn't even make its budget back domestically. Please leave this once proud franchise alone, Hollywood.
CHiPs/Power Rangers/Baywatch - Please leave these in the 70s/80s/90s where they belong. Thank you.

"You Can't Always Count On Foreign Money" Flops:
The Great Wall - $150m budget/$335m gross (only $45m domestic)
Ghost in the Shell - $110m budget/$170m gross. Ouch!

Observations:
-Mid-budget ($25m to $58m) adult dramas were a very bad bet. Total grosses of $297m on budgets of $249m (7 films).
-Has Will Ferrell lost his mojo? The House flopped, and Daddy's Home 2 looks well on its way.
-The Fast and Furious franchise is pretty much made for foreign markets now (77% of gross).
-Half the top 10 are superhero flicks. (After the new Star Wars comes out, that'll be 6 of 10, of course.)

 

That haaaaaarible joke has already been done, trust me.

 

And that would be wrong. I enjoyed The Force Awakens a hell of a lot more than I thought I would. Plus, I have a kid of my own now, and I'm absolutely delighted to be able to share Star Wars with her. It's a cross-generational thing now, and not just a relic from my distant past. I'm more than happy to share.

 

Avatar 5 (pre-production)
Neytiri
2024 Avatar 4 (pre-production)
Neytiri
2021 Avatar 3 (filming)
Neytiri
2020 Avatar 2 (filming)
Neytiri

 

Almost all the successful horror films were part of an established horror franchise. Annabelle: Creation's massive success is a fluke. It's probably the least entertaining of any Conjuring-related movie, though it does a serviceable job with its frights. It does show that horror audiences don't care much about big names fronting the movie.