Predicting the Movie Hits and Bombs of 2017

Discussion in 'Visual Arts' started by Vidiot, Dec 3, 2016.

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  1. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Hollywood, USA
    Yes, that seems to be the estimate the industry websites are predicting. It'll be interesting to see how much of a dip there'll be this weekend.
  2. NickCarraway

    NickCarraway Forum Resident

    Gastonia, NC
    That's $44 million in pre-Federal Reserve money.
    John Moschella and TheVU like this.
  3. townsend

    townsend Senior Member

    Ridgway, CO
    Quoting my own post, rats!

    Just wanted to alert others that the James Baldwin documentary I Am Not Your Negro is going to be shown in the PBS affiliate (KERA) in the Dallas/Fort Worth starting on January 15. For those who are interested, I suggest checking your local PBS affiliate, b/c I assume PBS purchased the rights to show it on many (if not all) local affiliates.
  4. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits, Abbie & Mitzi: Best Dogs Ever

    Alexandria VA
    "Jumanji" now at $519 million worldwide - $244 million US - on a budget of $90 million.

    Are any of the people who initially called it a flop gonna go the mea culpa route?
    Jrr likes this.
  5. This sequel really made that money off the strength of The Conjuring and the first Annabelle. The script is all over the place and I thought the weakest entry yet in the Conjuring universe. The fifth one set in that filmverse, The Nun, is coming out this year.

    Annabelle: Creation Blu-ray Review -
    benjaminhuf likes this.
  6. Crickets....:D

    Actually I was not one who made a prediction regarding this movie, but the number's don't lie -this movie was no flop.
  7. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits, Abbie & Mitzi: Best Dogs Ever

    Alexandria VA
    Mighta been in the 2018 thread where there was more anti-"Jumanji" sentiment.

    I recall a discussion from some who felt Dwayne Johnson's movies tended to flop - guess that was in another thread.

    At this point, "Jumanji" is well past "not a flop" territory - it's a genuine hit...
  8. Mirrorblade.1

    Mirrorblade.1 Forum Resident

    All the money in the world cost 50 million plus only made around 19 million
    At some point Ridely needs to call it a day with box office flops and barely
    making money back on some of his movies
    I really hope he just retires before he screws with Legend..
  9. benjaminhuf

    benjaminhuf Forum Resident

    Wasn't Legend already kinda of an awful movie from right when it came out....?? It's not a favorite for me, anyway. One of RS's few duds imho.

    But to your other point, he's had a fair number of movies that have seemingly lost money in the in the last 15 years. But some of these are really good movies. Kingdom of Heaven, for instance, in the director's cut, is one of the great epics of the last 20 years. But it lost a lot of money....
    budwhite likes this.
  10. PhilBorder

    PhilBorder Forum Resident

    Sheboygan, WI
    He began and was aesthetically formed as a commercial director. So I don't think he ever developed a strong narrative sense, or knows how to emphasize aspects of plot to streamline a movie. His films always look great (or better) so in a sense they seem more impressive than they are. When he gets a good script he can really bring it to life. When he gets a script that needs some retooling or rethinking in deference to the casting he seems to... just throw another filter on the camera and bluff his way through visually. Maybe I'm not being fair to him, but it seems like the recent Alien movies, for example, are not exactly models of lucid narratives. Rather than builidng to an impressive culmination, the franchise seems to be going off in diffuse tangents.
  11. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits, Abbie & Mitzi: Best Dogs Ever

    Alexandria VA
    Honestly, Scott was never a director with a consistent box office record. He didn't have a $100 million film until "Gladiator" in 2000 - "Alien" would be $100 million plus adjusted for inflation, but otherwise, he didn't create commercial hits until 2000!

    So the notion that Scott has suddenly fallen off from his golden box office ways is 100% wrong. Scott has had more commercial success from 2000 to date than from 1977 to 1999.

    Unadjusted, he just had his biggest hit 2 years ago with "The Martian" - it made more than $600 million worldwide.

    Mirrorblade loves to find doom and gloom, but we're seeing a director who never had great commercial appeal show more success in the last 20 years than the prior 20...
    benjaminhuf, budwhite and sunspot42 like this.
  12. benjaminhuf

    benjaminhuf Forum Resident

    Good point.

    Here's Ridley Scott's domestic box office adjusted for inflation, according to box office mojo....

    Adjusted for Ticket Price Inflation
    Rank Title (click to view) Studio Adjusted Gross Unadjusted Gross Release
    1 Gladiator DW $310,889,400 $187,705,427 5/5/00
    2 Alien Fox $283,810,200 $80,931,801 5/25/79
    3 Hannibal MGM $260,472,400 $165,092,268 2/9/01
    4 The Martian Fox $234,517,100 $228,433,663 10/2/15
    5 American Gangster Uni. $168,871,000 $130,164,645 11/2/07
    6 Black Hawk Down SonR $166,978,300 $108,638,745 12/28/01
    7 Prometheus Fox $139,725,200 $126,477,084 6/8/12
    8 Robin Hood Uni. $118,246,400 $105,269,730 5/14/10
    9 Black Rain Par. $103,948,000 $46,212,055 9/22/89
    10 Thelma and Louise MGM $96,216,900 $45,360,915 5/24/91
    11 Blade Runner WB $93,808,500 $32,868,943 6/25/82
    12 G.I. Jane BV $93,714,700 $48,169,156 8/22/97
    13 Alien: Covenant Fox $74,097,800 $74,262,031 5/19/17
    14 Exodus: Gods and Kings Fox $70,408,400 $65,014,513 12/12/14
    15 Kingdom of Heaven Fox $66,032,400 $47,398,413 5/6/05
    16 Matchstick Men WB $54,655,900 $36,906,460 9/12/03
    17 Body of Lies WB $48,996,400 $39,394,666 10/10/08
    18 Legend Uni. $37,313,700 $15,502,112 4/18/86
    19 Someone to Watch Over Me Col. $23,475,100 $10,278,549 10/9/87
    20 All the Money in the World TriS $21,479,000 $21,479,017 12/25/17
    21 White Squall BV $20,794,200 $10,292,300 2/2/96
    22 The Counselor Fox $18,154,300 $16,973,715 10/25/13
    23 1492: Conquest of Paradise Par. $15,474,500 $7,191,399 10/9/92
    24 A Good Year Fox $10,167,100 $7,459,300 11/10/06
    PhantomStranger likes this.
  13. benjaminhuf

    benjaminhuf Forum Resident

    Here's an example of a Ridley Scott movie that generated ok money at the box office, but was so colossally expensive that it lost a lot of money....

    Robin Hood
    Domestic Total Gross: $105,269,730
    Distributor: Universal Release Date: May 14, 2010
    Genre: Period Adventure Runtime: 2 hrs. 28 min.
    MPAA Rating: PG-13 Production Budget: $200 million
    Total Lifetime Grosses
    Domestic: $105,269,730 32.7%
    + Foreign: $216,400,011 67.3%
    = Worldwide: $321,669,741

    Advertising and studio overhead usually adds about $100m to the cost of a $200 million dollar movie, and so the real total costs for Robin Hood were probably about $300 million. Only about half of the box office actually goes back to the studio, and so with $160m coming back, that means there was a loss of over $100 million for this one movie alone. Home video helps make up some of that, but....

    All the Money in the World
    Domestic Total as of Jan. 10, 2018:$21,479,017
    Distributor: TriStar Release Date: December 25, 2017
    Genre: Crime Runtime: 2 hrs. 12 min.
    MPAA Rating: R Production Budget: N/A
    Total Lifetime Grosses
    Domestic: $21,479,017 91.7%
    + Foreign: $1,936,000 8.3%
    = Worldwide: $23,415,017

    With reshoots and $1.5m to Wahlberg, this one apparently cost about $50 million—meaning another Ridley red ink situation....
    Vidiot likes this.
  14. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits, Abbie & Mitzi: Best Dogs Ever

    Alexandria VA
    Thanks for that list.

    IMO, Scott's only had 3 genuine "hit movies": "Gladiator", "Martian" and "Alien".

    I know "Hannibal" is high on that list of grosses, but that strikes me as a movie that made money due to the popularity of "Silence of the Lambs" and the character more than the movie itself.

    "Hannibal" started strong at the box office but faded quickly and seems to be viewed poorly by most movie fans. It's like the same year's "Planet of the Apes" remake: the receipts look good on the surface but they don't tell the whole story.

    "Blade Runner" is a classic now but wasn't a hit in its day, and "Thelma and Louise" created more public controversy/conversation than box office.

    Scott has produced a lot of movies that did okay at the box office, but I still think he's only made a handful of true hits.

    And disputing the claim made earlier in the thread, these didn't predate the 21st century. He's performed about the same at the box office in the 21st century as he did in the 20th century...
  15. Nightswimmer

    Nightswimmer Forum Resident

    But T&L also cost almost nothing, so it paid off very handsomely. In addition this is the kind of movie that people would watch at home or rent out. And while Blade Runner may not have been an instant hit, it certainly has generated a fortune for the studio in the decades afterwards, especially with the Director's Cut which was everywhere in a time when sales of DVDs were high. You cannot just ignore this when talking about Scott as a filmmaker.
    sunspot42 likes this.
  16. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits, Abbie & Mitzi: Best Dogs Ever

    Alexandria VA
    I'm not ignoring any of that, but I'm simply refuting the notion that Scott has turned into box office poison over the last 15 years or so.

    Lots of these movies may have done better on home video - it's a tough discussion to have because those #s are less accessible than basic box office. I agree that "T&L" turned a profit, but it still was more of a cultural sensation than an actual box office hit.

    And I also agree that "Blade Runner" eventually made all involved good money - but it took a looooong time, and the movie's negative reception in 1982 hurt Scott's career.

    Anyway, I don't intend to crap on Scott as a 20th century filmmaker - my whole point was that he's always been inconsistent in terms of box office. The prior claim that he's fallen off a cliff in that regard ignores reality...
  17. alexpop

    alexpop Power pop + other bad habits....

    Move over James Franco, Oscar goes to Gary Oldman.
  18. NickCarraway

    NickCarraway Forum Resident

    Gastonia, NC
    From the same institution that's bestowed honors on Roman Polanski, Woody Allen, and Casey Affleck? Franco's safe.
  19. alexpop

    alexpop Power pop + other bad habits....

    Story related. C movie subject matter vs one of most historical figures in the 20th century. Stranger things have happened.
  20. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Senior Member

    The performance of Last Jedi in China is shockingly awful, done after 2 weeks.

    Why Disney's 'Last Jedi' Mind Trick Isn't Working in China

    Star Wars: The Last Jedi suffered one of the worst second-weekend declines the Chinese box office has ever seen. The film's debut of $28.7 million was already viewed as disappointing, but its 92 percent plummet to just $2.4 million in weekend two was arguably alarming.

    "The Last Jedi has already been completely pulled from cinemas here," Jimmy Wu, chairman of nationwide Chinese cinema chain Lumiere Pavilions, told The Hollywood Reporter by phone from Yancheng, a mid-sized city representative of the sorts of towns where the bulk of China's box-office growth is now generated. "It's performed much worse than we could have expected."

    As many have pointed out, a large part of Star Wars' struggles in China stem from the fact that the original three films never received a wide release in the country (When Star Wars: A New Hope came out in 1977, China was deeply impoverished and only beginning to recover from the ravages of the Cultural Revolution).

    "Because of the complex characters and themes, the prequels, and all of the multi-generational layers that are part of the culture, or cult, of Star Wars, it's been hard for young Chinese filmgoers to get into the franchise," says Li.
  21. John Moschella

    John Moschella Senior Member

    Christiansburg, VA
    Legend is unwatchable.
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  22. Plan9

    Plan9 Mastering Engineer

    Toulouse, France
    You're talking about the US cut I presume? (with Tangerine Dream's music)
    Maybe it's because I discovered it as a child, but the EU cut -and then Director's Cut- are pretty watchable and even endearing by my book.
    wayneklein likes this.
  23. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits, Abbie & Mitzi: Best Dogs Ever

    Alexandria VA
    The longer cut of "Legend" is better than the US cut - but it's still bad, IMO.

    Really, really bad! :sigh:

    Legend [Blu-Ray] (1985)
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  24. Plan9

    Plan9 Mastering Engineer

    Toulouse, France
    I'm admittedly not very objective as I liked the EU cut (with Goldsmith's music) as a kid.
    I still enjoy the fantastic sets and visuals and the subtext.
  25. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits, Abbie & Mitzi: Best Dogs Ever

    Alexandria VA
    Yeah, liking something as a kid can make it tough to see something in a different light! There are definitely not-very-good movies I still enjoy because of the haze of nostalgia! :)
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