Predicting the Movie Hits and Bombs of 2018

I'm not trying to convince you; I know what I read... and it wasn't mere speculation on a fan-site, it was a verbatim quote from Lucas himself, I know that for a fact.... but whatever, if I find it, I'll post it, until then, be cool.

Lucas is a control freak and considered those versions (especially the 1977 film) to be unfinished works because of limitations of time, money, and technology back in the day, he's not happy with them so he alone continues to deny anyone else having the option to watch them in a nicely-remastered presentation ... he said the 'Special Editions' were produced because they gave him the chance to revise those films and bring them closer to his original vision... that was undoubtedly a factor (even though it was ILM's Tom Kennedy and Denis Muren who essentially chose the upgraded shots), but in actual fact, they were more an expensive exercise in R&D for the prequels, plus a necessary and extensive restoration of the 1977 film's deteriorating negative... and Lucas was so shrewd that he had FOX pick up the tab for the whole thing... canny businessman or cheap dastard, you be the judge! He did the same thing for the 2004 DVD's, but they're just plain unwatchable so if I was FOX, I would've asked for a refund on that debacle...

As I've said, the IP's still exist for the OT theatrical versions, are still in pristine condition (judging by the footage on Empire of Dreams), and could very easily be given a brand new (optical pin-registered) scan at 4K resolution and a frame-by-frame remastering to remove dirt, debris, scratches, optical effect artifacts, etc, and get them looking utterly immaculate. The whole process would take six months tops if they took their time and did it right, and it would do gangbusters business on release... but Kathleen Kennedy isn't up for it because she's loyal to Lucas' wishes of not releasing them again, and until that potentially changes with a new Lucasfilm CEO, then the whole thing is frankly a dead issue, alas.

 

"And Mortal Engines’ fate isn’t unlike a number of obscure and expensive sci-fi/fantasy projects that have tried and failed recently, including Valerian and Jupiter Ascending."

The two key words here.

The issue here is that the books were only popular in England, even then, they were popular a long time ago.

Elsewhere, nobody else knows or cares.

 

Fantastic logic!!!

 

Why use the 1977 IP when you could use the O-neg for 95% of it? You really only need the IP for the few segments that were badly damaged. Most of the camera negative still survives and could be used again -- it'll just cost a lotta dough and take a lotta time. You just scan the pieces to 4K digital and then piece them together, shot by shot. It's done all the time.

Are you sure you know what Kathy Kennedy's motives are? Have you contacted her at the address I gave earlier? What I think -- bringing this back to a contemporary movie hit/bomb discussion, which is what the thread is supposed to be about -- is that she's working night and day to keep the Lucasfilm brand going, make sure Star Wars Episode IX is a huge hit, and that they don't make another mistake like Solo, while developing new Star Wars-related properties. I think the home video releases of the older titles is a factor, but pushed way, way on the back burner. New movies are where the big money is.

You know, you could make a good case that the release of Episode 9 in December 2019 could signal a future release of all nine films as a boxed set. It's doable, since the entire thing is "The Skywalker Saga" and it has a definitive beginning and an ending. They've indicated that the new Rian Johnson trilogy in 2022 will be an entirely different story, maybe even in a completely different part of the Galaxy bearing no relation to what we've seen before. Bear in mind that just because the original 3 films are restored (or 6, depending on how you look at them), they won't immediately make a billion dollars in a new release: generations have already seen them a million times, and -- aside from die hard fans -- I don't think that a mass audience is clamoring to see the originals. (I refer to this as the "PDGAS" factor: the public doesn't give a s***.)

I'd absolutely like to see them reissued purely from the historical/preservation side, but I think the audience is much smaller than you believe. I'm not convinced it could ultimately make money, because it will cost millions of dollars to restore, reconform, and process; it'll be a breakeven proposition at best, though ultimately good for the long-term prospects of their library and streaming services. I think it will happen, but I strongly suspect it's not a priority. (But I readily admit that Disney now has fewer excuses for not doing it, once the Fox sale is completely wrapped up in a few weeks.)

 

I see 8K tv's getting plugged a bit, when's the media going to be available or is it just downloads?

 

Total agreement there, "generations have already seen them a million times" and the "PDGAS"!

That I was going to imagine to happen.

If they were smart, they would release the entire box set, immediately after IX finishes at the box office. Before they release IX as an individual video, make it available only during the first six months of release as part of the special exclusive edition box set.

Hope so. We are so done with the "Empire" thing. The "PDGAS" thing again.

 

I'm just an interested layman compared to you, but just a quick question and one pertinent to any potential future release of the OT theatrical versions; if the core audience for those versions isn't so great as to be a highly profitable venture, what reason would Disney/Lucasfilm have to spend *at least* a million bucks (per movie) and a solid year of labor in reconstructing, re-conforming, re-compositing, and re-timing that trilogy? I just don't see there's anything in it for them to initiate such a venture.

I fully agree the nine-episode 'saga' films will get a deluxe box-set release in 2020-21, but I maintain the OT theatricals will likely be sourced from IP's and not camera negatives, sitting alongside the 4K masters of the revised versions that Lowry Digital finished way back in 2014 that were scanned from the negatives and have yet to be released to the public... there's just nothing in it for the suits to go that extra mile for the (admittedly) niche OT theatrical version marketplace when they don't need to... not when they're still making money hand-over-fist with the revised versions, which incidentally are the accepted and only versions for a whole generation now, and that generation is the one buying the merch... which is the REAL reason why the Mouse House bought Lucasfilm in the first place... it's all about the merch, and Bob Iger has admitted as much...

But hey, I sincerely hope you're right and any future OT theatrical version restoration/re-release is sourced from the original camera negatives... I just don't see it myself.

 

US Box Office for 2018 = $11.9 B
Foreign = $29.8 B

2018 Box Office Soaring to Record $11.9B in U.S., $42B Globally



This year marks one of the few times in recent memory that North America drove the growth spurt, versus international revenue.

Disney, which is on the verge of acquiring 20th Century Fox, commands an unprecedented 27 percent of the domestic market share. And its global ticket sales have already crossed $7 billion for the year, only the second time that any studio has done so (Disney was the first).

Overall, a well-received crop of tentpoles and other event pics appealing to a diverse audience helped to fuel the boom. Top earners include Avengers: Infinity War and Black Panther — both from Disney/Marvel — Universal's Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, Disney/Pixar's Incredibles 2 and Sony's Venom.

TOP 20 to date

Rank / Title / Studio / Worldwide / Domestic / % Overseas / % Year

1 Avengers: Infinity War BV $2,048.7 $678.8 33.1% $1,369.9 66.9% 2018
2 Black Panther BV $1,346.9 $700.1 52.0% $646.9 48.0% 2018
3 Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom Uni. $1,304.9 $416.8 31.9% $888.2 68.1% 2018
4 Incredibles 2 BV $1,242.5 $608.6 49.0% $633.9 51.0% 2018
5 Venom (2018) Sony $855.0 $213.0 24.9% $642.0 75.1% 2018
6 Mission: Impossible - Fallout Par. $791.0 $220.2 27.8% $570.9 72.2% 2018
7 Deadpool 2 Fox $741.5 $324.4 43.8% $417.1 56.2% 2018^
8 Bohemian Rhapsody Fox $668.1 $185.8 27.8% $482.3 72.2% 2018
9 Ant-Man and the Wasp BV $622.7 $216.6 34.8% $406.0 65.2% 2018
10 Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald WB $613.4 $155.0 25.3% $458.4 74.7% 2018
11 Ready Player One WB $582.9 $137.7 23.6% $445.2 76.4% 2018
12 Operation Red Sea WGUSA $579.2 $1.5 0.3% $577.7 99.7% 2018
13 Aquaman WB $579.3 $105.7 18.2% $473.6 81.8% 2018
14 Detective Chinatown 2 WB $544.1 $2.0 0.4% $542.1 99.6% 2018
15 The Meg WB $530.2 $145.4 27.4% $384.8 72.6% 2018
16 Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation Sony $527.2 $167.5 31.8% $359.7 68.2% 2018
17 Rampage (2018) WB (NL) $428.0 $101.0 23.6% $327.0 76.4% 2018
18 Dr. Seuss' The Grinch (2018) Uni. $427.2 $257.9 60.4% $169.3 39.6% 2018
19 Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again Uni. $393.8 $120.6 30.6% $273.2 69.4% 2018
20 Solo: A Star Wars Story BV $392.9 $213.8 54.4% $179.2 45.6%

 

Agreed, I think we are well past the point where any DVD or Blu-Ray box set is viewed as an "event." And an expensive restoration doesn't make sense if distribution is through streaming services.

 

Well so far the 2nd Fantastic Beasts movie is not at 613-million worldwide gross and is financially successfully. It has ended up 200-million short of the first one, which is not that bad after all, considering the reviews.

Coming in at number ten for the year, is not to terribly bad of a showing.

Depending how the year ends up, in a few days, maybe Aquaman will top it before the end of the year. But by the time that Aquaman will have finished it's run, it will be a grand slam.

My prediction is that Crimes of Grindelwald will end up in 11th place for the year, after all is said and done.

 

I think it would be a lot more than $1 million per picture. Two reasons they'd do it is because Disney is very conscious of their history and the importance of preserving their films, and they're aware of the pressure from archival societies and fans to do so. And the third is because they'll make some money making both the "George Lucas Revised" versions and the "Original Theatrical" versions available to home video and streaming. They've also got to promote the Star Wars: Galaxy's Edge theme park opening up this summer. Plus they can use the boxed set to drive more sales of the eventual Episode IX home video release.

Grindelwald has only been out about 5-6 weeks, so it's still got another couple of months in release worldwide. I bet it's got a shot at coming close to $700M by the time all the dust is settled. I don't think it's a good movie, but I'd say it's got an audience.

 

The final results for 2018 releases will take a couple of months to wrap, Aquaman will probably break the $1B barrier and finish top 5, one thing is set in stone and that's Avengers finishing first.

 

Which is fine, some movies we like and others we don't. No big deal.

I bring this up because, it got horrible reviews from both the critic's and the audience, from it's opening weekend and forward.

I mean that it looked to most everyone that it would be a bomb, due to the poor reviews and the very poor initial showing at the box office.

I doubt if there is any movie that made that poor of a showing from the opening weekend, that went on to do as well as it has, and how it might finish up it's run, as you are saying.

I think that goes particularly so, given its huge 200-million dollar production budget.

I mean, that I went to see it and had no issues with it, but given the budget, and the overall lack of excitement over this movie, I would have expected it to do half as well as the first one, at best.

Who would have ever thought that it would have been this financially successful?

 

I think the original trilogy in its original form might get a special release in 2027 in celebration of the 50th anniversary of Star Wars. That'll be the last time most of the original audience will still be around to see it. They can take their grandkids.

It's possible they might do it in 2022, for the 45th.

 

We all need write offs after all those millions made

 

I'd rather keep making the millions .

 

Gee, I dunno: Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald made $62 million in its first weekend, which is not chickenfeed. 38% from critics on Rotten Tomatoes (which is bad) but 60% from audiences (which is OK), and 52% from Metacritic (which is barely OK); B+ from CinemaScore, which is not a disaster. I'd say it was middling-to-good, not "very poor." A $200 million film that's made $613M in six weeks is not a disaster, but it's not a boffo hit, either.

My prediction is that they better step it up for the next film, or the series could hit an iceberg and sink... and not in a successful "Titanic" way.

 

I do agree with you on this.

We don't really have any idea, what this franchise is about, or where it it going?

With Harry Potter, we had the books to follow. So that was a good start.

So many character's that would appear in the rest of the series were introduced in the first book/film.

Since each book was based on a school year, we knew the time frame and ages of the children.

We knew a good many of the teacher's.

Though, if you did not read the books, you at least could figure out that the children would be growing up, as school age children do. And you could expect that they would have different behaviors and challenges, growing up.

So, even though each year was it's own story, one year built upon another...

We knew who the bad guy is.

Now, we get back into this "prequel" stuff.

We know that Dumbledore will still be with us, no suspense possible here.

We know that Grindlewald will not. So, do we really care, what he does or does not do?

By the time that HP rolls around, he is no longer in the picture any way.

As we have discussed earlier in this thread, successful movies, often follow successful "known" books.

This is how it was with HP, Twilight, Hunger Games...

So far, we have no book and no plot to follow and really few known character's to have any interest in.

In the first two movies, the magical creatures were some of the most interesting things in the films.

They need to DO SOMETHING in #3, or put a fork in the franchise.

 

There won't be physical media by the time 8K video hits. That is going to be all server-based digital purchases, unfortunately. UHD is likely the last, mainstream home video format available on media aimed at the mass market.

 

Zachary Quinto as Prince Namor.

 

8k

Why. Why ? I shot a video and saved it as 1080p and then as a 4k file. Guess which took a helluva long time to upload?

 

Did 4K look 100 % better ?

 

What about the guy in Crazy rich Asians ?

 

Ha ! Keep thing Aquaman is Prince Namor.

 

The cut you're referring to is the European theatrical cut, which is one of the two I recommend. (The other one? The Final Cut.)