Predicting the Movie Hits and Bombs of 2018

Discussion in 'Visual Arts' started by Vidiot, Dec 17, 2017.

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  1. mBen989

    mBen989 Senior Member

    Scranton, PA
    I'd take these numbers with a gram of salt as they don't factor in Moviepass.
  2. eddiel

    eddiel Senior Member

    Toronto, Canada
    Ballpark much do you think it would cost per picture? I recon at $1M per picture they could recoup that with streaming sale advances minimum guarantees alone.
  3. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Senior Member

    I don't think Movie Pass revenue would make the slightest dent in those billions.
  4. mBen989

    mBen989 Senior Member

    Scranton, PA
    It may effect tickets sold.
  5. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Hollywood, USA
    Good question. I think Star Wars would be the hardest to restore because it's had the living **** beaten out of the negative. High-side would be $10M (and about 6-8 months of continuous work by a team of people), then maybe $2M+ for the other films. Episodes 1-3 would be easy, because 2K files already exist for all of them. Ideally, they'd redo as much as they could at 4K and do a true 4K release, more than likely in HDR as well. So worst-case, a year and $15M-$20M for the first six films. The dirt fixes, scratch fixes, and flicker fixes alone for Episode 4 will take six months, easy.

    I hope it happens, and I nudged my bosses a few times about the possibility of just doing an all-encompassing boxed set that would have "originals & revised" as one set, but they basically shrugged and said, "we just work here -- it's George's decision." I think 90% of them were more concerned with getting Episode 3 done (which came out about a year later), plus moving the facility from San Rafael to The Presidio in San Francisco (which I think happened in the summer of 2005).
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  6. radickeyfan

    radickeyfan Forum Resident

    Aquaman and MP are showing incredible Holiday legs ...Aqua looking at about 325+ mill (and maybe a billion worldwide) ....MP looking at 220+ mill ( and worldwide , is tough to call , for whatever reason , it is not as well , as it is in the US )
  7. So I made the mistake of seeing Holmes & Watson yesterday. Learn from my mistake. This movie is a mess that comes off as a first draft, filmed before they figured out what the plot was supposed to be, removed the bits that didn't work and were getting pounded into the ground, added some actual humour, and figured out the characters. I actually dozed off for a bit about half way through. Avoid.
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  8. shokhead

    shokhead Head shok and you still don't what it is. HA!

    SoCal, Long Beach
    I don't want to watch it for any reason, free or given to me.
  9. MekkaGodzilla

    MekkaGodzilla Forum Resident

    Westerville, Ohio
    Not surprising in the least.

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  10. tkl7

    tkl7 Agent Provocateur

    New York, NY, USA
    Yes, but she was basically given the same powers and outfit as Mar-Vell, the original Captain Marvel.

    So my 8-year old daughter wanted to see this film, and I did not find it to be all that bad, certainly liberties were taken with the true story, but I did empathize with the protagonist enough for the film to be effective.
  11. FYI. Obama’s favorite films of 2018.

    Black Panther
    The Death of Stalin
    Eighth Grade
    If Beale Street Could Talk
    Leave No Trace
    Minding the Gap
    The Rider
    Support the Girls
    Won’t You Be My Neighbor
  12. The Hermit

    The Hermit Wavin' that magick glowstick since 1976

    It was already extensively restored in the mid-1990's for the Special Edition, why would it need cleaning again?

    That being said, I know Lowry Digital still had to remove a lot of dirt, scratches, and other anomalies from the 2K scan for the 2004 DVD release (such as it was)...
  13. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Hollywood, USA
    It'd have to be redone for 4K HDR.
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  14. The Hermit

    The Hermit Wavin' that magick glowstick since 1976

    Dear God, it never ends...
  15. neo123

    neo123 Forum Resident

    Northern Kentucky
  16. yesstiles

    yesstiles Senior Member

    Ya we just saw Holmes & Watson because we love Ferrell & Reilly, but were expecting the worse. It was nothing special, but nowhere near as bad as the critics and hubbub are making it out to be. I was entertained.
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  17. shokhead

    shokhead Head shok and you still don't what it is. HA!

    SoCal, Long Beach
    Friend went to see it and said it was even worst then critics said.
    sunspot42 likes this.
  18. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    Well, that's saying a lot...
  19. radickeyfan

    radickeyfan Forum Resident

  20. radickeyfan

    radickeyfan Forum Resident

    Aquaman looks like it will end up at 350 mil domestic , maybe hit 1.1 billion overall
  21. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    I think that it will end up with much more than that.

    Expect many sequels...
  22. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Hollywood, USA
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  23. Jim B.

    Jim B. Forum Resident

    That has surprised me quite a bit. I think it would do ok and make money, but it seems globally it's a huge hit. If you look at how much its made in China, wow! They must like this sort of thing there.

    With China and a global market now then US domestic results can be largely irrelevant for some films.

    That Transformers film looks like it will lose money though.
  24. Jim B.

    Jim B. Forum Resident

    I would argue strongly against Suspiria being on any such list, it's a quality film and everyone on the thread here about the film seems to be positive.
  25. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    Hollywood is just like this thread. Every time they "green light" a movie, they are essentially making a prediction, just like we are.

    The differences, are that they are only predicting the "Hits" part.

    At the end of the day, if you play, you are going to win a few and you are going to loose a few.

    And that is why having a record year at the box office doesn't necessarily mean as much as it might appear to mean.

    OK, they made "lottttttta dough", terrific!

    That is like, someone telling me that they won a grand at the tables last night. Sounds terrific, and then I ask, "how much did you loose", the night before?

    Just pointing out, we need the whole story...

    The article pointed out how well Roma was received. Well Alfonso Cuarón was the director.

    It brought to our attention that Solo, didn't do that well at the box office. We needed them telling us that?

    They mention that the Game of Thrones director's will be involved in future Star Wars development. I think this is an excellent idea.

    I think that it might be an excellent idea to develop a Game of Thrones movie franchise, now the the TV series is ending. Maybe 2-3 years down the road?

    They did talk about movie timing and they ask, "Does it help having two live-action feature adaptations of Disney classics, Dumbo and Aladdin, two months apart?" Very good point! I don't think that this is particularly a good idea. I think that Dumbo will do well and Aladdin, not so much.

    And then, they point out, What Went Wrong...

    "The drop between Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald and its 2016 first chapter was huge: $628.5M WW versus $814M".

    Well, as of the beginning of December, that still placed Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald in the top ten grossing movies for 2018. So it did not go so terribly wrong. And, since they spent $200M to produce it, it made a respectable profit. And, the final numbers are not in, yet.

    There are now ten movies that were penned by author J. K. Rowling and all ten movies have turned a profit.

    Is there any other author in history, that can make this claim?
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