Predicting the Movie Hits and Bombs of 2019

Discussion in 'Visual Arts' started by Vidiot, Dec 17, 2018.

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  1. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Senior Member

    Location:
    Canada
    Box office prediction for Alita? Domestic <$100 million - Overseas <$500 million, total in the range of $350-$500 million? I would like to see this become a breakout movie so they can establish the franchise however if production costs are truly in the $200 million range it will need at least $650 million + for them to even consider making more, possible sequels are already mapped out. The audience will decide if they get the green light.
     
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  2. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Senior Member

    Location:
    Canada
    I'll be seeing this in IMAX-3D for sure.

     
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  3. That80sBaldAsianBadGuy

    That80sBaldAsianBadGuy Forum Resident

    Location:
    orange county
    I think you may be too optimistic about Alita's box office. I'm not going to slam it so much. Also James Cameron is only producing the film and Rodriquez directing it hasn't had a hit film since the Spy Kids franchise. The studio didn't seem too confident in the film to stick it with its original date in december. It may have to do with Mortal Engine bombing around november. The youtube views were pretty low too and the feed back comments were quite muted. Pretty much most of the signs about a movie not doing well is what I just listed
     
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  4. Squealy

    Squealy Forum Hall Of Fame

    Location:
    Vancouver
    I think he meant, it was not a pre-existing property.
     
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  5. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    But, that is exactly the point. The 800M - 900M number's ARE Harry Potter franchise numbers, not a spin off "prequel" series.

    Harry Potter, like the Twilight saga and Hunger Games, were based on books and had a literary following, before the movies came out.

    Fantastic Beasts, books, ZILCH. Prequil, YES.

    Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones, Worldwide: $649,398,328, and that is the second of the Star Wars franchise prequel's. Realizing that was 2002 and not adjusted for inflation. Also noting that the budget was roughly half of Grindelwald at 115M.

    As of yesterday, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, was at, Worldwide: $648,803,422.

    While it might be hopeful that Grindelwald, was going to achieve HP status, I don't think that it was very realistic thinking. Still it did make money and the sequels will continue (for now, at least).

    I say that because Harry Potter was a beloved series, a series that involved "children" and followed them as they changed and grew. First, people thing that children are "cute" (which was why the "Donnie and Marie" show worked... until they were no longer "children" and were no longer "cute"). We followed their lives, from playmates to dating to marriage and families.

    These "children" are facing the super evil villain Voldermot, the evil wizard who murdered Harry's parents and was out to murder Harry too.

    In Grindelwald, there are no cute children, only adults. We have no idea, even after the second movie, what the plot is. We don't have any endearing character's. And, who is Grindelwald, in the first place and why do we care anything about him? He doesn't even come into play, by the time that HP comes around.

    While I did like the first two Fantastic Beasts, I do think they need to get on the stick an take these prequel's somewhere by the third movie.

    "I think it sounds a lot more like the Wachowskis' Speed Racer." I don't think that you can realistically speed racer to any other film. I even bought it, just to see about the visual's. It was an incredibly stupid cartoon animated film, that I could not even sit through at home.

    Jupiter Ascending, did not see it, no comment.

    Luc Besson's Valerian, was a complete disaster. Taking the budget into consideration, it was about as big of a fail as you could get. I am personally at a loss at to how it could be that big of a failure?

    Science fiction movie, takes place in the future, Luc Besson, Director, huge budget, incredible visuals. To only bring in just over 41M in the U.S. is incredibly bad. I don't think it is a great movie, by any means, but I found it very watchable, for it's visual's alone. I just can't see how it could do that terrible at the box office in the U.S.

    It didn't do nearly as bad world wide as it did in the U.S. with just under 82% of the total revenue, coming from the international box office receipts.

    While Robert Rodriguez has never made a movie before on that scale, neither had Peter Jackson, prior to doing L.O.T.R. I had to hand it to Peter Jackson, for doing a job, that perhaps no other director might have done, translating the books to the screen.

    L.O.T.R., was like the holy grail of fantasy literature. And, it was not about making just one movie but three movies that had the most devoted following of fans that I know of. If he screwed the adaption's up, he would have faced nothing short of crucifixion, but he pulled them off!

    Why he produced Mortal Engines, will forever remain a mystery to me.

    With Alita, Robert Rodriguez, only has to adopt an anime character to the screen. Something less daunting than hallowed literature.

    I really don't think that Cameron would be behind this, if he did not believe in its ability to succeed. Cameron is still the producer and Alita is still his baby, so I don't see him as being un-involved with the project at any stage.

    Figuring that Cameron spent $237M on Avatar and now $200M on Alita, I sincerely doubt that he intends for it to bomb. Rather, I believe, that he is planning many more sequel's in the Alita "franchise".

    B.T.W., There should have never been a sequel to Sin City.
     
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  6. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    I don't think that it would have been a good move releasing the movie in the Christmas, pre-Christmas season of November and December. There was way too many other things going on at that time.

    I don't see that much going on in January, other than the carry over of December films like Mary Poppins, Bumblebee and Aquaman.

    By the time, we reach the beginning of February, these films will be winding down. By the time Alita hits in the Middle of February, I think they will have clear sailing, without being up against some of the heavy hitter's that were released in late December.

    Other than Alita, I think that the second Lego Movie, will be the main competition for February's box office.

    Like I previously have mentioned, with regard to Valerian, which did awful at the box office in the U.S., but made over 80% of its box office from international ticket sales.

    I think that Alita, will have this same thing going for it, as specially in the Asian market. But anime is big all over the world, where Valerian, a French comic book character was not. The same thing could be applied to Mortal Engines, which was only largely known in the English market and was an older book at that, way wrong timing.

    "James Cameron is only producing the film" is a rather loose statement Considering it is his reputation and perhaps future success, might be depending on him producing a return on a 200M investment in Alita's production budget.

    When a Disney film tanks, like Tomorrowland and Nutcracker, we don't see anyone pointing finger's at the producer's and director.

    I really don't see any more big hits until Captain Marvel and Dumbo hit the theater's in March.
     
  7. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    Thank You, I did...
     
  8. The Panda

    The Panda Forum Mutant

    Location:
    Marple, PA, USA
    I think some critics are laying for Cameron and Alita will be their chance.
     
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  9. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Senior Member

    Location:
    Canada
    ???
     
  10. Having sex for him ????
     
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  11. Tim Lookingbill

    Tim Lookingbill Alfalfa Male

    Location:
    New Braunfels, TX
    Just saw "The Upside" several days ago and it's a pretty good movie if one is into original and compelling storytelling along with thoroughly fleshed out characters and situations that are believable. It is definitely not a cookie cutter drama.

    And as for comedians turned dramatic actors are of concern, I think Kevin Hart is much better at it than Eddie Murphy even though I'm a big fan of most of Eddie's movies.
     
  12. Exit Flagger

    Exit Flagger Forum Resident

    Location:
    New York
    I was surprised by how poorly Valerian did (as mentioned above). I really enjoyed it. Went to see it with my family and some friends and everyone thought it was a lot of fun.
     
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  13. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    No doubt. Let them take their best shots. My money is on Cameron.

    Let's not forget Cameron's partner, Jon Landau, who is fully there, behind the scenes.

    So, just to remind of their previous success'

    "With an initial worldwide gross of over $1.84 billion, Titanic was the first film to reach the billion-dollar mark. It remained the highest-grossing film of all time until Cameron's Avatar surpassed it in 2010. A 3D version of Titanic, released on April 4, 2012, to commemorate the centennial of the sinking, earned it an additional $343.6 million worldwide, pushing the film's worldwide total to $2.18 billion and making it the second film to gross more than $2 billion worldwide (after Avatar). In 2017".

    When Titanic was made back in 1997, it was the most expensive film ever made at 200M. People back then were calling it "Cameron's folly".

    I becomes the highest grossing movie of all time, until the record is broken by another one of Cameron's movies.

    It then goes on to surpass 2B, being only the 2nd movie in history to do so. The first being Avatar.

    Yet people are quick to point out, that Alita, is an unknown quantity.

    I say. no more so than Avatar "was".

    I do say, that Cameron was under more pressure with Titanic back then. He had to get it right the first time, as the prospects for a franchise, were slim to none.
     
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  14. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits, Abbie & Mitzi: Best Dogs Ever

    Location:
    Alexandria VA
    Jim Cameron the producer isn't the box office gold Jim Cameron the director is...
     
  15. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    I thoroughly agree. There are few directors that have a hands on approach and can be cognizant of just about every detail in the production and be able to drive all the elements of the production in the direction that he envisions.

    As a director, the guy will do what ever it takes. He will pick up a camera, he will learn ow to edit, he will dive to the bottom of the ocean...

    I don't think there has been anyone like him, ever...

    Here was a project, that he wanted to do, some time back. With his other commitments, that just did not get off of the ground.

    I think, in handing the baton over to Rodriguez, that Cameron jump started Alita.

    I see a lot of parallel's from Avatar to Alita and feel confident that a lot of the filming and production techniques that Cameron developed for Avatar, will translate to Alita.

    While he has handed the Director's Chair over to Rodriguez, I think he will remain very much committed to Alita, as his resources will permit. I think that he has a long term vision for the creation of a Alita franchise. Otherwise, I doubt if there was any real reason to commit such a large budget to create Alita and her world.

    Realistically, I'm sure that you could have gotten much of what the movie will be, into a far less costly production, made the movie, and moved on.

    I still have high hopes for the project...
     
  16. evillouie

    evillouie Forum Resident

    Location:
    Toledo
    I haven't seen or heard much about the new Addams Family movie coming out around Halloween this year. It's supposed to be all CGI in the style of the original comics.
    It might not break any box office records, but I'm looking forward to it!
     
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  17. neo123

    neo123 Senior Member

    Location:
    Northern Kentucky
  18. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

  19. alexpop

    alexpop Power pop + other bad habits....

    The first 10 years of the 21st century was better than the last 9 years, cant see 2019 producing a abundance of classics. Can Tarantino emulate Pulp Fiction this year with
    Once Upon A Time In Hollywood ?
     
  20. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    Commenting about Cameron the other day as a Producer and a Director and thinking about the money Titanic and Avatar made, gave me some pause to think and realize about something that I really had not been thinking about.

    It is now 2019 and it has been a full ten years since Cameron had made Avatar.

    Really? What gives?

    You make a movie that breaks 2B at the box office and ten years later and you still have not come up with a sequel?

    In a decade, we should have already had two or three sequels?

    I was thinking about the Alita thing.

    John can't direct Alita because he is busy with Avatar.

    Really?

    In 2017, it was announced that the Avatar 2, would not be out in 2018 as was previously announced. It won't be out this year either.

    In fact, the current realease date is at the END of 2020.

    None of this makes any sense to me at all?
     
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  21. alexpop

    alexpop Power pop + other bad habits....

    Don’t rate Avatar myself. But maybe JC got a illness or something. Epics ? Prefer Ridley Scott.
     
  22. Jim B.

    Jim B. Senior Member

    Location:
    UK
    Both the leads were terribly cast and had zero chemistry. I liked the look of the film, and the world building, and the plot, the start of the film was beautiful, but it was ruined by the two leads.
     
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  23. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    I came in with low expectations for Glass and really enjoyed it. I concede it's a very slow-paced movie that takes awhile to get going. But I think the two major payoffs were surprising. There were half a dozen times I thought, "well, the film is gonna go in this direction," and I was very wrong. The box office on Glass is blowing through the roof and our screening was actually fairly crowded tonight.

    I think @The Panda means, "some critics are waiting for Cameron to fail, and Alita will be their chance." It's very true that in Hollywood, it's not enough to have success: some enjoy the schadenfreude of seeing their enemies fail."

    Valerian cost about $200 million (and made only $225M), and that kind of budget is risky to give to a director like Besson who makes weird, quirky films like Fifth Element. But I did enjoy Lucy quite a bit, and that one made $463 million (which is more than ten times what it cost to make). I think they were hoping for a hit of at least that size, and it didn't happen. He complained prior to the film's release that he had been trying to get the film made for 10-15 years, and it's possible the timing was wrong, but I think the story and casting were weird. Valerian is a strange film, nothing even approaching what I think could've been a mass-market success.
     
    Last edited: Jan 21, 2019
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  24. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Senior Member

    Location:
    Canada
    Post Avatar he was involved in several environmental awareness causes esp. in South America where the rain forest is being decimated. Also he pursued ocean exploration and went to the bottom of the Marianna Trench in a one man sub (only the 3rd person to ever get down there), that probably took up a couple of years (see National Geographic for more information). The Avatar sequels have been in the lab so to speak for years, scripts, development, hiring new actors, and more technological advancements taking longer than expected (underwater performance capture developed with WETA). Toss in major side projects like Alita, getting the rights back to Terminator and bringing that back to life + other business interests with his wife. Avatar II is locked in for Dec 2020, III for Dec 2021, audiences will decide if we ever see IV and V.
     
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  25. Danby Delight

    Danby Delight Forum Resident

    Location:
    Boston
    So what you're saying is that you've never seen any of those photos of Elton on stage where he's literally parallel to the ground with only his hands on the keyboard.
     
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