Predicting the Movie Hits and Bombs of 2019

Discussion in 'Visual Arts' started by Vidiot, Dec 17, 2018.

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  1. brownie61

    brownie61 Forum Resident

    It is pretty easy to pay $6-$7 for a movie. I think the last time I paid $12 for a movie was over 10 years ago when something I just had to see on the big screen had no hope of playing around here and I had to go to NYC.

    60” TVs are nice, but they’re still not the same experience as the big screen in a theater. If you like movies, there is a way to make it work on a budget, and it really doesn’t take much work.
     
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  2. brownie61

    brownie61 Forum Resident

    Well, maybe you and your friends are not, but *someone* is buying up all those advance tickets that often make it necessary to plan and buy in advance now.
     
    Dudley Morris likes this.
  3. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    I don't know where you guys live that there are inexpensive movies, but the first movie that I remember paying $5 to see was, Star Trek The Motion Picture back forty years ago and that was in a theater out west on 441. I assure you, I was not please back then.

    Our IMAX is $15.

    Which is why I did join the A-List for $19.95 and is now $21.95 for new member's to join.

    Not that everyone wants to have to take out a membership to watch a movie. Which, for most people involves downloading and installing the official AMC spyware app on their smartphones (Which I do not).

    The only other theater that is close to me is an independent theater, the Gateway Theater, which opened in 1951 as a single theater.

    Unfortunately, it is now been cut into four theater's and falls somewhat short of my ideal movie going experience.

    The adult ticket price at the Gateway Theater is $11.50 and the senior ticket price is $9.50.

    In every case, the movie retail prices were about $2.50 apart from the different theater's, with the IMAX theater being Another $2.50 - $3.00 above the Coral Ridge Ten.

    [​IMG]

    These are the rates at the AMC Coral Ridge 10, which is by far the closest movie theater to me.

    At the AMC Coral Ridge 10 theater, an adult ticket is $13.49, and a senior ticket is $11.99.

    [​IMG]

    These are the rates at the AMC Pompano Beach 18 (which is currently undergoing renovation), which is in the city north of me.

    At the AMC Pompano Beach 18 theater, an adult ticket is $10.99, and a senior ticket is $8.19, but requires a short road trip.

    [​IMG]

    This is our IMAX theater, where an adult/senior ticket is $15. While I enjoyed Everest in IMAX, I am not sure I see the point of watching a movie that is most entirely shot on the inside of an insane asylum in IMAX? Usually, I associate a trip to the IMAX theater to view something seanic>

    [​IMG]
     
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  4. brownie61

    brownie61 Forum Resident

    @SandAndGlass , I see movies at AMC almost exclusively, as there are three of them nearby. My AMC prices vary with time of day. Before noon: $6-$7; after noon but before 5 pm: around $9.50; evening: more than I am willing to pay ($12.50 or so). Another chain nearby, Cinepolis, is $7-$8 from 3:30-5:30 Mon-Thurs.

    This is in the NYC metropolitan area, so not a low cost area in general.
     
  5. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    There are no cheap movies around here. If I was not a Stubbs A-List member, maybe I could go from$12 to $8 as minimum as a senior.

    That would involve a a drive of about 16-miles round trip and take about 40-minutes total.

    The number's don't work out.

    I used to go to matinee showings all of the time, but those rates seemed to just go away.

    On weekdays, they don't have a late morning show. So here is tomorrow's 12:45 PM show. It can go as low as $8.50 for a senior, or $9.99 for a regular adult ticket.

    [​IMG]

    A 4:00 PM show tomorrow is, as low as $9.99 for a senior, or $11.49 for a regular adult ticket.

    [​IMG]

    Popcorn is still $9 a bucket (free refills for Stubbs A-List members) and Coke is still $6.
     
    Last edited: Jan 23, 2019
  6. Danby Delight

    Danby Delight Forum Resident

    Location:
    Boston
    We live in Boston and my wife gets discounted passes for AMC, Regal and Showcase theaters as an employee perk from her work. They cost $6 each, or $7 for the ones that get you into new releases during the first two weeks when the other passes aren't accepted. Sorry you don't have that option, but yeah, some people can totally see movies for far less than the prices you're quoting.

    Don't really like popcorn, don't drink soda and can in general not consume anything for two and a half hours or so, so the snack bar prices are a non-entity. If I ever got desperate, I've usually got a bag of mixed nuts or a Kind bar in my bag for just such an emergency.
     
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  7. thegage

    thegage Forum Currency Nerd

    While I agree that there are more options than ever for accessing content, making broad conclusions from limited data doesn't really give any meaningful information about the bigger picture (ha, see what I did there?).

    John K.
     
    Last edited: Jan 23, 2019
  8. Tim Lookingbill

    Tim Lookingbill Alfalfa Male

    Location:
    New Braunfels, TX
    That's a good example of reverse circular logic regarding expectations. I could counter that nothing lasts or stays around forever. As long as there are folks who don't mind paying $45 for a movie ticket, popcorn and a sugary drink (my cinema serves alcohol now) then it will stay around. It's not up to the public's expectations. When the public doesn't want to pay that much to go to the movies, then that business will close its doors, also something rarely expected by the public.

    To your question of how many "new" movies I've seen in 2018 it's over 5 and they were all in my local cinema. And this is in a town that is one of the fastest growing in the US. I still pay $5.50 senior discount for a movie ticket. I pay about $5 for a "Movie Meal" which is a small pile of popcorn, small drink and choice of small bag of M&M's or Skittles.

    Oh, and I have a landline and it works just fine for me.
     
    Last edited: Jan 23, 2019
  9. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    I just retired last month, so I'm on a fixed income noe (that is if Social Security ever decides to send me my money).

    I joined the AMC Stubb's A-List, and got in right before they changed the program, so I'm paying $19.95 each month and I can see up to three movies every week. They just raised it $2/mo. since the beginning of the year. I'm locked in to this rate for 12-months, so that is a savings of $24 for this year.

    Fortunately, I have an AMC theater very close by me, which could not be more convenient for me. Also, the remodeled it a couple of years back to a Dine-In theater, which is only one of two in the entire State of Florida. So, you can order food and alcoholic beverages if you wish. I stopped drinking beer last summer so that doesn't matter to me any more.

    The theater was built years back, behind a local shopping center on US1, right before they started building the theaters with stadium seating.

    They closed and remodeled it into their new dine-in format a few years ago. There are two main theater's and eight smaller ones. Here is the seating chart for Aquaman, which has been out since December and is not busy right now. Here is tomorrow's only 3D showing which is at 6:45 PM. You can see that even with advance, online reservations, no one reservation has been made for tomorrow's showing as of this time.

    The seats are really large leather seats, in pairs, between every group of two seats in the center section there is about 20" or so between these groupings. There are only 68-seats in the whole theater. There are swinging trays to put your food on. There are buttons for every group of two seats you can press to order food or drinks and ketchup and condiment's between the seat groupings.

    So, now that I have the A-List pass, it doesn't matter what they charge, with the A-list program, it can be a 3D or IMAX movie, it just counts as a single movie. We have a IMAX theater downtown, but it is not an AMC theater.

    My earlier comments in this thread, were that movie theater's have more and more competition at home and they are really getting heavy on the ticket prices, with the concession prices going through the roof.

    With the Stubbs A-List deal, I get 13-Movies a month for $19.95, so that is an excellent deal! This theater is divided into wings, on the left are rocking leather chairs, the right wing has full electric recliner's.

    [​IMG]
     
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  10. sunspot42

    sunspot42 Forum Resident

    Location:
    San Francisco
    The stats for moviegoing aren't great. I Googled it but couldn't find a chart in the first few pages, but suffice to say international growth has stopped and it's in steep decline in the US. It fell 5.8% in the US and Canada in 2017 according to a Washington Post article.

    The trend is headed to zero, and at some point the industry is going to reach a state of collapse, where it can't maintain the theater infrastructure to keep existing participants coming. Add on increased competition from television, giant HDR screens in the home plus any future technological advances in non-theater viewing and distribution and the picture for motion pictures in the theater is grim.
     
    SandAndGlass likes this.
  11. eddiel

    eddiel Senior Member

    Location:
    Toronto, Canada
    2018 saw an increase on both 2017 and 2016.
     
  12. sunspot42

    sunspot42 Forum Resident

    Location:
    San Francisco
    There was a 5.25% increase over 2017's admissions count, but it had dropped 5.8% the year before. So they didn't even recover to 2016's levels - they were still off 1.1%.

    Box office was up as usual, but that was due to increased ticket prices. That trick won't work forever. They're one recession away from a nasty collapse.

    Movie Attendance Surpasses 1.3 Billion Tickets Sold in 2018
     
  13. R. Cat Conrad

    R. Cat Conrad Almost Famous

    Location:
    D/FW Metroplex
    Films I'd like to see: The Ultimate mash-up of 2019 features! :winkgrin:

    Glass Captain Marvel (no date yet, but profiled on the It's Just Lunch site)
    The story of two fragile, well litigated superheroes fused in a transgender experiment battling for Hollywood inclusiveness with the entire superhero mythos as a popular trend riding in the balance.

    Dumbo Pet Cemetery (release date to be announced, revival & several sequels assured)
    The story of the death of a species and the ghost resurrection that haunts theaters and threatens to cast an entire political party into oblivion.

    Avengers 4 John Wick 3: Endgame (Summer release, Super Bowl trailer)
    The story of endless combat that goes long and always runs to overtime with every team player wearing a different jersey and the umpire who calls the shots dressed in black.

    Rocketman Aladdin (limited release)
    The story of a piano playing genii who escapes his magic lamp after being granted his wish to be the world's funniest stage comedian, ...and there's the rub.

    Godzilla, King of Toy Story 4 (staggered release; 3D version actually provides a third eye)
    The tale of a nuclear meltdown near a Japanese toy factory and the bizarrely deformed playthings that will not be contained! Spoiler: Saved in the final ten minutes by a giant Mouse.

    Spider-Man: Far from The Lion King (opening worldwide on holiday near you)
    The saga of a Mouse that roared and through careful manipulation of a radioactive spider caught every viable creature in the animal kingdom in a web (spin-off from G,KoTS4).

    Once Upon A Time in Hollywood, Chapter 11 (opening & closing on the same day)
    Quentin Tarantino's latest exploration of the financial excesses of show-business. Stephen King makes an appearance as an aging demon rock star who writes brilliant songs that nobody can translate.

    Zombieland Abbey (Sundance Channel same day release)
    A vintage tale of stiff upper class zombies living in a castle who refuse to associate with living people; a white comedy directed by Spike Lee.

    Joker You Are My Friend (Halloween release)
    The troubled life of a kid's TV series star who never let anyone see behind the mask (a three hanky Tom Hank's film).

    The Star Wars Terminator Film XXX rated Episode (Valentine's Day limited release with adults only access)
    Determined to kill the franchise we see the Skywalker Saga going Full Monte with the geriatric pairing of a matriarchal Princess Leia & Darth Vader (Linda Hamilton & Arnold Schwarzenegger) performing an array of special effects heavy stunts with the ghost of Yoda. Needless to say the lightsabers aren't as energetic in motion as they once were, but this could be the film that gives a whole new meaning to grandfathering in Hollywood grosses.

    Buda, Buda, Buda, That's All Folks! :hide:

    :cheers:
    Cat
     
    Last edited: Jan 24, 2019
  14. Jim B.

    Jim B. Senior Member

    Location:
    UK
    You are using very poor analogies.

    More relevant - people have got out dancing for 1000's of years, People have got out to bars to drink for 1000's of years. It's basic human stuff. The cinema is not quite that universal but it will remain a key event that many will still want to do.
     
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  15. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    I think it is very relevant. People have not got out of dancing for "1000's of years". Most of the major hotels built in the early part of the twentieth century had ballrooms for that reason. People did go dancing, it was a social thing. Just like going to bars is a social thing. People still go out to bars today, it is still a social thing. Only today, everyone sits next to each other at the table, stares at their smartphones and texts, or what ever people do while they stare at their smartphones.

    Getting back to the dancing and social thing. People want dancing to live orchestra's. Live orchestra's were replaced by technology and pre-recorded music eventually replaced live orchestra's. But, not right away. For every song that an orchestra played, every member of the orchestra had to buy the sheet music for it. Popular musician's made money selling sheet music. This is why musician's looked forward to having a hit record on the radio. If you had a hit, people would request that orchestra's play their songs, and the bigger the hit, the more sheet music the band sold, the more money the band made. Bands never were paid when their records were played on the radio, not a penny.

    Technology, i.e. the record player did gradually replace the live orchestra's. TV did gradually replace the radio and movie theater's all across the country closed in record numbers. Movies had an advantage over TV's of that time, in that television was in B&W, while many movies were in color, which had a technological grip over B&W TV. As color TV came into play, B&W movies went away. Movies made the jump to wide screen, TV's made the jump to wide screen, abit some years later.

    Movies had large screens, TV's have large screens and are getting larger all of the time. Movies had stereo sound, TV now has stereo sound. Movies have surround sound systems, homes now can have surround sound systems. Movies had LFE channel's and sub woofer's, home theaters have LFE sub-woofer's. But, if you wanted to see a movie, you had to go to a movie theater. Then there were VHS tapes and Blockbuster video. Movies went digital 4k, home theaters went digital 4k.

    Going to a theater to watch a movie became more expensive, watching it at home became less expensive. I will give you that theater popcorn is better than the microwave kind, but then it is $9 a bucket (I can't remember when I last bought popcorn in a theater). Microwave popcorn is several packs for a couple of bucks, but microwave popcorn isn't exactly my thing either, so I don't remember when I last had that. I had considered buying a commercial popcorn popper for the home, but they take up precious space that could be better served by audio gear. Also, since I cook, I prefer to serve my HT guests real food and adult beverages.

    But, you're probably right, people will just continue to go to movies, just like they will continue to go to bars...
     
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  16. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Senior Member

    Location:
    Canada
    WETA doing its thing. I think this will look amazing in IMAX 3D.

     
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  17. Ghostworld

    Ghostworld Senior Member

    Location:
    US

    this ones got my interest and the new captain marvel trailer is so much better
     
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  18. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    Again, another good trailer for Alita.

    I saw the Captain Marvel trailer last weekend. The movie looks like it will be a big hit and the beginning of another successful franchise.
     
  19. brownie61

    brownie61 Forum Resident

    It is bizarre to me that cheap matinees have disappeared in Florida, but not 35 miles from NYC which is one of the most expensive markets in the US.

    But at any rate, you have made it work on a budget by joining A-List, which is a great deal. That was my point - if you love seeing films in a theater, you can make it work on a budget.

    Can’t advise regarding the outrageous cost of snacks and drinks... I have no desire for these things when I watch movies so they don’t factor into my budget.
     
    SandAndGlass likes this.
  20. Efus

    Efus Senior Member

    Location:
    USA
     
  21. Efus

    Efus Senior Member

    Location:
    USA
    We have an Xscape Theatre close to me here in Jersey, thats pretty good.
    Reserved seating, wide reclining seats, not too many people per theater
    (vs the old days when they'd jam a couple hundred into tight seats in the early 80s auditorium style for the newer AMC theaters at the Broward Mall circa 1980)

    Anyhow, the Xscape, they have an early bird, before 11 am, movie for 6 bucks, goes up to 9 before 4 pm.
    They charge an extra buck for 3D, 3D Xtreme showings.
     
    SandAndGlass likes this.
  22. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    I think that they have gone stark raving mad with their concession stand pricing.

    I would buy a $5 bucket of popcorn and a $4 soda, but even that is the end of the world. Both of these represent about the least expensive thing to eat and the least expensive thing to drink that you can buy.

    With the A-List, you can get a free size upgrade on popcorn or a soda or if you buy the bucket, you can get a refill free. But how much popcorn do I really want to eat?

    They have this deal that I was going to sign up for. You buy this plastic popcorn bucket for $19.95 and you can get refills all year for $4.49. I thought that was a great deal, but it is only at AMC "Classic" theaters. BUMMER! Look at the size of that bucket of popcorn!

    [​IMG]

    They even have a Hot Dog special going on at some AMC Classic theater's. They din't really say just what a AMC Classic theater is, they just have a listing of them. The ones that have the hot dog special are even fewer, with only three in Florida. I checked for you and there are no AMC Classic theater's in N.J. This is a great special, $1 hot dogs!

    [​IMG]

    With the A-List, things have gone from very expensive to most inexpensive, so yes, that is excellent. Except there could be better deals at the concession stand.

    The AMC Stubbs program has three levels, with the A-List being the highest level. But anyone can join the free level which enables you to buy $5 movie tickets on Tuesday's, so that is an excellent deal for free.

    They also have a Stubbs deal on Tuesday's where, for $10 you get the movie and a bag of popcorn and a soda. Unfortunately, it does not apply to a dine-in theater like the one by me.

    On the bright side, I can order an appetizer for $11 to $12. Which is better than a $9 bucket of popcorn.

    I miss the concession deals that some of the other theater's have. But, the theater by me that they remodeled into a dine-in theater is super nice. The only other one in Florida is at Disney Springs. I'm not complaining. :)

    I get to see more movies, for less money, and I get to predict more movie hits and and bombs in 2019!

    B.T.W., I had meant to check back right before the 6:15 PM showing of Glass to see how many seats were reserved right before showtime, but it slipped my mind. the 9:45 PM show has all of 12-reservations at present.
     
    brownie61 likes this.
  23. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits, Abbie & Mitzi: Best Dogs Ever

    Location:
    Alexandria VA
    The local PBS station is WETA.

    The effects house is Weta. Not capitalized! :)
     
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  24. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Senior Member

    Location:
    Canada
    20th Century Fox is holding a free movie screening of Alita on Jan 31. Check link for locations.

    ALITA: BATTLE ANGEL Page
     
    SandAndGlass likes this.
  25. alexpop

    alexpop Power pop + other bad habits....

    Bomb?

    Shazam.
     
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