Predicting the Movie Hits and Bombs of 2019

There are a plethora of smaller films. There just isn't as much attention paid to them because, well, they're smaller films. But they are there, and they will always exist. And if you can't find them in your local theater, just grab your remote. They're all over Netflix and Amazon Prime.

 

It's hard for non-DC/Marvel heroes to reach an audience because the DC/Marvel heroes are already so much more famous.

But non-DC/Marvel can still sell. M. Night Shyamalan's "Split" and "Glass" were non-Marvel/DC superhero movies that did well.

And there's the "Hellboy" movies. Dunno how the new one will do, but it's a major release.

And "TMNT", too!

So successful non-DC/M movies exist and can sell tickets!

 

Couldn't agree more! These movies are safe bets for high grosses.

 

Kick-Ass was a huge success. Someone will say it was Marvel but it was only published by them first I think and has no connection to the rest of the Marvel universe.

I think the initial audience for these films was comic book fans but it has crossed over now to the mainstream and as long as the film is good it will do well, regardless of whether it is Marvel/DC or whoever.

 

I had a look at Disney's slate for this year, a bit mind-blowing:

1. Captain Marvel
2. Dumbo
3. Penguins
4. Avengers Endgame
5. Aladdin
6. Toy Story 4
7. The Lion King
8. Artemis Fowl
9. Maleficent 2
10. Frozen 2
11. Star Wars IX

I can see maybe one or two potential failures there at a push but could this be the biggest year ever for any studio? Could be over 10 billion there.

 

Tsujihara’s exit from Warner has zero to do with the DCEU and everything to do with Charlotte Kirk. Wonder Woman, Aquaman and the upcoming Shazam are viewed as saving the franchise. In fact, he had been given expanded responsibilities right before a leak of text messages with the “actress”, that doomed him. No successor plan in place.

 

I hear otherwise. They were just looking for an excuse at this point. To me, this is what happens when you get a money guy (MBA from Stanford, then started a tax-prep company) instead of an actual filmmaker or producer to run a studio. [Note that Kevin Feige, very-successful head of Marvel, went to USC film school and never wanted to do anything except make movies. Just sayin'.']

There's an "interim" WB team already in place...

Warner Bros. Names Exec Leadership Team in Wake of Kevin Tsujihara's Exit

What really did Tsujihara in was the text messages. If he had just had only an affair, he could have apologized and survived... but the text messages (which went back years) revealed he had promised the woman to get her some movie roles, and even though this kind of thing has been a Hollywood tradition for 100 years, you can't get away with that today. Not with text-message evidence.

If Tsujihara had been unbelievably successful with the DC Comics movies, I think it would have been a more "graceful" exit, like a production deal and another position and so on.

 

There was no intention of replacing him. Batman vs Superman wasn’t considered his slate. Wonder Woma, Aquaman and Shazam, which were under his watch, are considered franchise-saving, as are the JK Rowling and Toho relationships. His responsibilities had been expanded in a major and very public way two days before the Hollywood Reporter article. There was no successor being contemplated - contrast when anger resigned. That’s just not what anyone does with some they are “just looking for an excuse” to fire. Off the mark.

 

Err . . . when ‘Meyer’ resigned. Given the content of the texts, it’s ironic that he had just been given oversight of global children’s programming as well as the studio.

 

Because it was cheap, "Kick-Ass" made money, but a movie that made $96m worldwide - on a $30m budget - doesn't seem like a "huge success"...

 

For a property with no prior brand awareness, Kick-Ass was a success. It still sells fairly well on home video, years after release. Of course, the sequel was a disaster.

 

Those figures are surprising as public profile and awareness would suggest it would have done much bigger numbers, because it's a pretty well known film in the circles I'm in.

 

I didn't say it wasn't a success - I said it wasn't a huge success...

 

Some movies are like that - albums, too. They seem like they must've been bigger than they actually were.

Again, I agree "K-A" did well, and I also think it feels like it was "big". Not the first - or the last - time I misjudged a movie's popularity, though!

 

I think they knew Kick-Ass's financial success would be limited because of the R rating, but the comic-book writers were adamant that they didn't want the story to be watered-down to a PG-13. It cost $30 million and made $96 million, which was pretty decent for an R-rated action film in 2010. The sequel, Kick-Ass 2, cost less ($28M) but made a lot less ($60M), which I think was seen as less than breakeven.

It's amazing how well Chloe Grace-Moritz has done in the years since -- she's a rare child star who still looks very good as an adult (22).

 

I liked her in Hugo. She is in Greta now.

 

going to do just fine ... Shazam! (2019)

 

I believe it. DC is finding its groove.

 

Us opens to $70 million while Captain Marvel cracks the $900 million worldwide mark.

Box Office: Jordan Peele's 'Us' Opens to Shocking $70.3M

Us, which debuted to a shocking $70.3 million at the domestic box office over the weekend to scare up the third-biggest horror opening ever behind It ($123.4 million) and last year's Halloween sequel ($76.2 million), as well as the No. 1 launch for an original horror title.

Overseas, Us took in $16.7 million from its first 47 markets for a global bow of $87 million — more than four times the film's $20 million production budget (that doesn't include marketing). Among major markets, the U.K. led with $3.8 million, followed by France ($2 million), Germany ($1.4 million) and Spain ($1.2 million).

 

Not sure why Us opening well is “shocking,” when the article calling that opening shocking correctly noted that Peele’s previous film was a “cultural sensation.”

 

That is a shock. I think most industry estimates had Us in the $45M-$50M range, which would still have been a big success for a relatively small film.

Box Office: Jordan Peele’s ‘Us’ Stuns With $70 Million Opening Weekend

Jordan Peele has now jumped to the A-list in terms of hot directors who could get pretty much any script greenlit in just a few days. And the movie has gotten very good reviews, which is terrific.

Get Out only made $33 million in its opening weekend, so to more than double that with a new film is pretty amazing (and would be for any relatively-new filmmaker).

 

Apparently the movie only cost $20m, so it's already made a profit solely based on US opening weekend grosses!

 

And worldwide, I think it went even higher, so I would bet you're right: shoot a "cheap" movie for $20M, you're already into profit at $87M. They're breaking open the champagne at Universal, for sure.

 

This reminds of they guy that came with Paranormal activity all those years ago..
They even gave him a tv show which I watched and it went nowhere..
He soon disappeared .

 

Yep.

Or the "Blair witch project" guys.