Predicting the Movie Hits and Bombs of 2019

My god... the horror! THE HORROR!

I'm thinking under $2 million, total.

 

I like the 1994 Stand TV mini-series.

 

There are plenty of people out there who go see it because it’s going to bad. I went to see those awful Atlas Shrugged movies and the Nick Cage Left Behind for that very reason.

 

I don't think there will be "plenty of people". I'm with @Vidiot on this one.

It is getting harder and harder to please people. Older animation techniques, like cell animation that was used in Missing Link, just don't excite the general public anymore.

Even big budget productions like Disney's Dumbo are failing to attract the crowds that Disney animated features did in the old days.

Wonder Park brought is some money at the box office, but it cost far to much to produce to ever make a profit.

Detective Pikachu is going to do very well!

 

I'll take that bet. It's a major studio movie with a good November release date - it may not be a hit but $2 million is an absurdly low prediction.

207 movies made $2 million or more in the US last year. This will be a mass release, studio-backed film.

If you'd said under $20 million, then maybe. But $2 million?

Absolutely no chance at all it doesn't make $2m+...

 

The first week!

Oh, I dunno. It looks hiiiiiiiideous, but I concede I'm not the intended audience.

 

You said "under $2 million, total". Not "under $2 million first week".

And if it makes under $2m first week, it wouldn't make more than $3m total. Less than $2m opening for a big studio family flick like this would be a massive catastrophe.

Not saying "Sonic" will be a hit, but there's no way it flops as hard as you predict.

And "Detective Pikachu" has gotten good reactions at the screenings where I've seen the previews. You may think it looks "hiiiiiiiideous", but I strongly think it'll do very well...

 

I think they can make us care for her in one film. Indeed 99% of films are standalone films where you do care for the fate of the protagonist. So in itself it's not an issue, if they do it right of course.

But I do think that the story deserves a trilogy where we see her slowly change like she did in the comics.

 

Man, Sonic and Pinkachu both look awful. Wonder Park, Missing Link, and Ugly Dolls are all in the process of tanking -- this is not going to be a great year for small, non-franchise animated films. Clearly, How to Train Your Dragon and Toy Story are exceptions, and I'd be extremely surprised if the new Lion King doesn't do well. I think Secret Life of Pets 2 is iffy but could do OK.

But I'm not getting a great feeling from the Aladdin trailers. Mary Poppins Returns made $349M on a $130M budget (but you have to add back in $75M for advertising), so I think that was a barely-break-even proposition; Dumbo cost $170M and has made $328M to date, so I think it's in the same boat (or worse). I'm positive that Disney expected far more.

The budget for Aladdin is buried at the moment, but I can't see where they spent any less than $150M on it. Based on that, they'd have to do well north of $400M to break even and then maybe even $500M-$600M for it to be an actual hit. I'm doubtful that will happen. The schadenfreude is running high in Hollywoo for Disney to fail, because they're almost doing "too well" at the moment: five of the Top 10 releases right now are Disney (or Fox, now owned by Disney), and Avengers: Endgame is on its way to possibly topping Avatar as the biggest film ever made. It's an interesting year for box office.

 

Since "Ugly Dolls" isn't out yet, I don't see how it can be viewed as "tanking".

"Detective Pikachu" and "Sonic" are hybrids - not truly animated. They're also parts of established game franchises, so they're not new properties ala the ones you mentioned.

Anyway you look at it, even the movies you view as "tanking" made a lot more than the $2 million you predict for "Sonic"!

 

How to Train Your Dragon is the third movie in the already successful franchise. Toy Story is the forth movie in another hugely successful franchise.

To me, Mary Poppins Returns and Dumbo were aimed at almost identical audiences, which it seems, might not exist these days as it did in the past.

I have seen two different trailers for Aladdin, which will be released on the 24th of this month. From the trailers, I doubt that it will do anywhere near what Mary Poppins Returns and Dumbo did at the box office. I think that Disney will loose big on this one.

 

Detective Pikachu is part of the gaming franchise the way Avenger's: Endgame is is to the comic book world.

 

What's the appeal? I watched the trailer this weekend and was not hooked.

 

There are many reasons "Sonic" isn't seeing much traction. The trailer coming across like a fake "Funny or Die" sketch of a movie that was shot in 1999 but never released doesn't help.

But it's also just not at the "pop culture" moment where it's going to get a lot of traction. There are 90s kids who have some "Sonic" nostalgia, but it's not just not widespread.

"So bad it's good/funny" audiences are where films make some money back on rentals/streaming, etc. Not a ton of folks pay $12.75 to $15 for that experience.

Unless they literally pull distribution and limit it to the few hundred theaters, I do doubt it'll only make $2 million opening weekend. But this could do sort of "Hellboy" type numbers and end up topping out in the $20-$30 million range.

The money's already spent on this thing; they might have a chance to break even once international markets and rentals/streaming/purchases are factored in.

I'm curious if the bad PR on this thing is bad enough that they'll consider dumping it straight to Netflix or something, like "Cloverfield Paradox." Like "Paradox", Netflix would probably pay Paramount more money to secure it for streaming than Paramount would make at the box office.

 

I saw the trailer for ugly dolls. Right. I didn’t even know those niche Japanese vinyl toys had “made it big.” Now a movie?

 

The Japanese set a lot of toy trends.

 

"Detective Pikachu" can bring in "Pokemon" fans as well as a broader audience who like the kind of weird "Roger Rabbit" vibe it gives off.

It looks like it'll take a meta/snarky view of the franchise, which is why Ryan Reynolds appears as Pikachu.

I think it looks fun. It might actually be awful, but it's a clever way to expand the franchise's appeal...

 

Ryan Reynolds is a really talented, funny guy, and I have to admit I did laugh at a few of his one-liners.

 

one of my favorite actors of today! The guy makes me laugh and he can pull off drama as well. I'm a fan! Just friends is hysterical! too bad we don't have a US BD...

 

bucks... if they pull them in they will make 'em....simply delicious for them.

 

Yeah, I would bet that Toy Story is one of those movies that is almost "too big to fail."

That's my guess as well -- that Aladdin will "underperform" in the same neighborhood as those two films. I would be amazed if Aladdin could cost less than $175M, and $200M is not a ridiculous amount (given that Will Smith still reportedly gets somewhere around $20M per role). You would think that his fee would be low, given that his last few films didn't do that well, but apparently he still commands a hefty paycheck...

Will Smith Scores ‘Historic Pay Day’ To Record Music For ‘Aladdin’

Let's wait and see. I predict it will tank.

I remain unconvinced that either will make big money. On the other hand, who could've predicted that Minions would be one of the biggest animated films ever made? So surprises do happen sometimes. If I could predict more accurate results, I'd be head of production for a major studio, sitting in Kevin Tsujihara's chair.

 

IMO, there isn't enough TS that will stop ppl from watching and loving them!
a much beloved franchise...Heck, the last one brought tear to my eye...

 

As much as a hardcore cynic as I pretend to be, I have to admit getting a little misty-eyed at Toy Story 3 in the theater. That's a really charming, well-done film, an example of how great Pixar can be when they really pull out all the stops. The film got fantastic critical reviews (98% on Rotten Tomatoes) and made a billion dollars, which is more than the first two films combined. I'm more a fan of the kind of animation done in The Incredibles, but Toy Story really has a lot of heart.

 

yes, you got it! looking forward to #4!
Toy Story-they dig into deep memories of our childhood...who didn't love their toys and want them to be "alive"...and so much more...great just great!

 

If word gets out that James Marsden looks "frail" in the film, it'll tank HARD.