Predicting the Movie Hits and Bombs of 2019

Discussion in 'Visual Arts' started by Vidiot, Dec 17, 2018.

  1. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    I think it will do extremely well. I think of the hundred-or-so films and TV shows made from Stephen King's work, the recent It production was among the very best ever done. It deserved all its commercial success.

    As I've said many times, I learned in film criticism class there are four kinds of films:

    • films you like
    • films the critics like
    • films the public likes
    • and films that make money.

    It's rare you get a movie that hits all four points. There's lots of films I hate that made lots of money (I've been vocal about Transformers and Fast & Furious, to name two huge franchies). But there are also a lot of films that are merely "OK" to me -- not great, not good, but alright -- and some of those make a lot of money, too. Recently, Lion King was one of those, which is currently at $1.34 billion dollars. I didn't hate it nearly as much as I thought I would, but I also didn't love it.

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood was a film I loved, but it's a very quirky, weird film, and I think people "of a certain age" would find it more interesting than a younger crowd. It's still making money, which is tough for a $100 million dollar R-rated film that runs over 160 minutes.
     
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  2. Darrin L.

    Darrin L. Forum Resident

    Location:
    Golden, CO
     
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  3. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    If I were a gambling man, I would say it's possible for the streaming services to prosper in a recession as people cut back on the expense of going to a movie theater. If I can spend $15 a month for my family to watch Netflix, vs. paying $12-$18 per person plus parking and food per movie... I think you can do the math. Nothing can replace the theatrical experience, but a buck is a buck.
     
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  4. sunspot42

    sunspot42 Forum Resident

    Location:
    San Francisco
    I think if there were fewer services those services could prosper. But I think during a recession people are actually likely to cancel some of the less-used services they've already got. And that's gonna trim production budgets.

    In a way, a bad recession could be the best thing that ever happened to Netflix. If times are tough people won't subscribe to all of the newer services from the studios themselves. That could force a rethink in Hollywood, and a need for them to return to partnerships with Amazon, Netflix and Apple...
     
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  5. brownie61

    brownie61 Forum Resident

    Location:
    New Jersey
    I can’t imagine subscribing to all those individual services from the studios. I am not a fan of a particular studio, I am a fan of movies. I would be interested in rental of individual titles from a variety of studios. There aren’t enough hours in the day to make subscribing to all the individual services a good value for anyone.
     
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  6. Larry Mc

    Larry Mc Forum Dude

    My wife and I loved this movie. It really helped not knowing the end.
    I like Brad and Leo as actors and they seemed to like each other.
    Great to see Brad really acting again, he must have already known that dog, they got along great.
    I'm definitely adding the Blu-Ray to my collection.
     
  7. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    I'm into it. We subscribe to pretty much everything. But bear in mind I'm crazy.
     
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  8. brownie61

    brownie61 Forum Resident

    Location:
    New Jersey
    *laughs*. Crazy with unlimited funds too, apparently! :winkgrin: That’s the biggest killer for me. I don’t have that kind of money to spend on something like this. And even if I did have the money, as I said, it would be a waste because I don’t have the kind of time it would take to get value from so many services.

    I subscribe to Netflix DVD because it has exactly the kind of variety I want. If that goes away, and nothing with similar variety pops up online, my at-home movie watching will drop dramatically. Which will be sad, because I love movies. Pay-per-rental would be satisfactory. Maybe they could all offer pay-per-rental in addition to subscription. I’ll bet they could make a lot of money that way.
     
    Last edited: Aug 15, 2019
  9. Deesky

    Deesky Forum Resident

    You don't have to be permanently subscribed to all the services. When a series comes out that you are interested in, you can subscribe temporarily, binge watch the series and then unsubscribe. Rinse and repeat.
     
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  10. NickCarraway

    NickCarraway Forum Resident

    Location:
    Gastonia, NC
    Plus the theater trip usually means "dinner and a..." plus drinks or ice cream after. Plus a sitter. So yeah Netflix/Hulu/Prime should prosper in a bad economy.
     
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  11. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Forum Resident

    Most of the major foreign markets start to open this week.

    Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood (2019) - Release Info - IMDb
     
  12. The Panda

    The Panda Forum Mutant

    Location:
    Marple, PA, USA
    and obviously not on a fixed income like many of us 'get off my lawn' SHF contributors.................
     
  13. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    Oh, I just eat a lot of ham sandwiches and peanut butter & jelly sandwiches to afford my various TV addictions. And I drive a (paid-for) Prius. My joke at my age is, "I'm not on a fixed income... I'm on a broken income!"
     
  14. Jrr

    Jrr Forum Resident

    Interesting thing about Once Upon A Time is have you noticed how many of us over on the thread about this movie are going back 2-3 times and paying to see it again? If this is really happening on a larger scale than beyond our little group it should do very well!
     
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  15. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    I know a dozen people who've seen it twice, and a buddy of mine who hates it (!!!) has even seen it twice so he can complain more about it. He is absolutely out of his mind that the film is so disrespectful to the memory of Bruce Lee, and I can't convince him that the movie is a bit of a goof, just a pastiche inspired by real events, but it's complete fiction.
     
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  16. MekkaGodzilla

    MekkaGodzilla Forum Resident

    Location:
    Westerville, Ohio
    Funny thing is, they really only share a couple of scenes together, and it has been reported that "Brandy" was actually played by several dogs, including at least one male (this is clearly, um, evident when Brandy tries to get into Francesca's bedroom). Outside of Cliff giving Brandy a bone from a restaurant, attaching her leash for a walk, and the walk itself, all the other shots of Brandy are reaction shots, where she likely was working with her handler/trainer and not Brad.
     
  17. mrjinks

    mrjinks Optimistically Challenged

    Location:
    Boise, ID.
    I saw the film opening night and that scene generated a lot of laughter at our showing. I remember thinking it was funny, in a Kentucky Fried Movie kind of way, but also being surprised to see it done that way in this day and age...
     
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  18. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

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  19. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    AMC CLASSIC Colorado Springs 10

    AMC Chapel Hills 13

    AMC Stubs, A-List?

    Regal Interquest & RPX

    Regal Unlimited?

    Why are they paying to see it again?
     
  20. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    It's fair to say that Leonardo DiCaprio and Brad Pitt are huge stars with international appeal, and the world remembers the horrors of Charlie Manson and the events of 1969. I would be surprised if it made any less internationally than the $110 million it's made so far in America.
     
  21. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    Good point about DiCaprio and Pitt.

    I don't know if that many people today, around the world, know or care about Manson.

    I do agree with you on the particularly excellent violence at the ending of the movie.

    I think it is the best onscreen violence in my memory!
     
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  22. Jrr

    Jrr Forum Resident

    Good question. But mainly because I rarely go to a theatre. I hate the ads beforehand, I hate almost all the previews (my jaw hits the floor at how so many previews are incredibly stupid, and dismayed that anyone would want to see most of those films) and I’m just not that interested in most of the tentpole superhero kinds of movies that most people want to see. I have a pretty killer projection system at home and enjoy my extensive blu-ray library of films from mainly the 70’s-90’s. At maybe four movies a year, the memberships wouldn’t work for me. I had two Movie Passes back when it really worked. Turned out I was their target market. I paid for eight months and my wife and I watched maybe four films, and it wasn’t the fault of Movie Pass. If I were in my 30’s instead of the late 50’s I would be all over it.
     
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  23. brownie61

    brownie61 Forum Resident

    Location:
    New Jersey
    For me it’s because although I go to the theater pretty often, I don’t go consistently enough, or late enough in the day, to make a subscription service a good enough value for me. In fact, I saw two movies this week, and neither one was at a chain with a subscription. Instead of my usual AMC, I saw the David Crosby doc at Bow Tie because AMC isn’t showing it, and saw Blinded By The Light at Cinepolis because none of my three local AMCs have inexpensive morning matinees for that, while Cinepolis had an inexpensive early afternoon screening.

    I love watching previews, but agree that most of the previewed films don’t interest me, particularly superhero films. However, yesterday I saw two new previews that interested me very much.

    One was for a film called Last Christmas, which is an obvious chick flick so will likely be of interest to no one else in this thread but me. ;). But I love Henry Golding, Michelle Yeoh, Emma Thompson, George Michael music, and Christmas lights, so this one has my name on it.

    The other one was called Knives Out, with Daniel Craig (speaking in what seemed to be a Southern accent?), Michael Shannon, Jamie Lee Curtis, and Christopher Plummer. I loved Daniel Craig playing off type in Logan Lucky, and think Michael Shannon is great in just about anything he does, so am really looking forward to this one too.
     
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  24. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    Actually, that's about what they expected. Note that it's still in release, and it's only just now opening overseas.

    If it can make another $120M internationally, they'll do OK. I think everybody knew going in that a 160-minute violent R-rated film about 1969 Hollywood would be kind of a tough sell.
     
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  25. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    I don't know that age has anything to do with it.

    I have a nice HT set up also or had before I retired, but I enjoy seeing films in a movie theater, except for their cost.

    I had AMC's A-Plus and it was excellent. I just enrolled in Regal's Unlimited a few days ago and already saw my first two movies, on of which was Once Upon a Time...

    There are so many more movies out there than just the tent pole movies.

    I usually get to the theater about 15-minutes into the movie start time, specifically to miss most of the previews.

    Which is an attractive benefit of being able to reserve your seats in advance.
     

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